 “Final approvals from the second bank are subject to remaining conditions including Ethiopia formally ratifying its already approved Country Membership. KEFI is targeting finalisation of these formal approvals and of definitive documentation this quarter. This is expected to be a significant positive catalyst for the shares”
“Harry Anagnostaras-Adams with Federal State Minister of Finance Dr Eyob Tekalgn Tolina and
President African Finance Corporation Samaila Zubairu, Addis Ababa last week”
“Based on this Business Plan, Tulu Kapi is expected to boast a levered, post-tax NPV5 of US$688m at a gold price of US$2,100/oz, at the start of construction. Taking KEFI’s expected 80% stake in the project, and assuming an exchange rate of GBP:USD1.275, this amounts to an NPV5 of 7.1p/share. At US$2,600/oz gold, the NPV5 is US$1,046m, representing an NPV5 of 10.8p/share. These figures are 11-17x the current share price. As Tulu Kapi is developed over the next two years and risks are mitigated, the share price would be expected to increase towards the NPV.” |
“Broadly, benchmarking the Saudi Arabian assets against recent African gold M&A deals suggests a valuation of KEFI’s 15% stake of US$50-78m. This represents 1.0-1.6x KEFI’s current market capitalisation. This could provide significant funding flexibility for Tulu Kapi or other projects.”
“Upside scenarios based on a 15% increase in resources at each project could underpin a valuation range of US$67-89m.”
An updated Mineral Resource Estimate is expected in the next three months. Hawiah A new Mineral Resource is expected in the next three months Jibal Qutman.
“Recent M&A transactions The estimated valuation range for Gold and Minerals is based on the current resources of Jibal Qutman and Hawiah, and the estimated valuations of recent M&A transactions in the region” |
On a different notehttps://cryptoslate.com/blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-climbs-to-top-1-in-record-breaking-211-days/ |
Think the main problem could be that Artar decided that kefi was simply too small to keep up with what they wanted done especially with its focus split between two countries.
I would not be surprised if Artar got approached by another mining company with much deeper pockets that could put tens of millions or more into exploration and could put the money in now. |
Ten million is a lot to find when the whole company is valued at 35 million!I find it hard to believe that you find it hard to believe that issuing a few billion more shares at the required discount is unpalatable?! |
Find it unbelievable that ten million can't be easily raised to stay in the Artar partnership and then funded it on an ongoing basis. We don't need the cash, we need to develop the future business in SA. Terrible decision. |
Even if they sold their remaining percentage and become a little less stressed financially, it doesn't stop them going back into Saudi at a later date and certainly with a lot more knowledge and cash, hopefully!!! |
Maybe a big issue not been talked about is its more in the companies hands in Ethiopia rather than Saudi where where it was a junior partner.
Another factor is though the Saudi government has been supportive kefis success is more critical to the Ethiopian government than it is to the Saudi one hence Harry being made an ambassador, the listing, the law changes, the wide consortium.. |
Is going over of the top not lying? |
Posted on Telegram kefi Q&A
Q, What has been the cost of investing in GMCO and in TKGM,the book value and the market value?
A,A: Unlike many other companies, KEFI writes off all expenditure in its accounts until the application for a Mining Licence which reflects a decision being made reflecting a development commitment . There is no “right” or “wrong” - this is just our policy which we believe conservative for statutory reporting.
Therefore at KEFI, book value in the statutory accounts is always less than historical expenditure which usually involves extensive exploration, feasibility study, permitting, financing and other costs.
And, asset market value would be expected to vastly exceed both the historical cost and the reported book value in the statutory accounts - if exploration is successful and/or development studies are positive.
On the other hand, as we all know, stock market values in each different jurisdiction varies on a daily basis from any of these numbers due to any number of factors.
In that context, we provide the following statistics with respect to each of GMCO and TKGM.GMCO:
Cost was c. $12 million since 2008, accounting book value nil, indicated market value $50-80 million based on the opinions of research analysts who have issued reports.
TKGM:
Cost was c. $50 million since 2014, book value $35 million, indicated market value $495-835 million based on the opinions of the research analysts who have just issued reports.
Posted 14 November 2024
.....
My lse post.
Numbers are going to skewed due to..
1.All the work done on TK before kefi effectively got it for a knockdown price in a fire sale.
2.TK being further along than the Saudi projects.
3.The high percentage share kefi has for TK.
4.Probably value given to licence areas does not reflect future Sauid potentail potential.
Its possible that kefi will not have such a high percentage of further projects in Ethiopia especially if most of the money comes from Ethiopia at project level from the listing. Though obviously you can argue that means faster progress making it more a Ethiopian success story and kefi not having to raise money at parent company level.
The Saudi projects value would have inevitably gone up as they got further along and Hit full DFS status. Will interesting to see if kefi doing further work in Saudi to increase the price it will get for the areas or just sells them as quickly as possible. |
Yes, Harry has been digging himself and all shareholders into a very very big hole. |
Have they started digging yet? |
At least TK is jorcd. |
#6681/2,
For the purpose of clarity and openness.....
"This report has been commissioned by KEFI Gold and Copper and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by KEFI Gold and Copper." |
4p would be acceptable to me. HA needs to get the funding completed beyond doubt once and for all. |
I think the thing to hold on to is the NPV, with gold at $2,600 (which it very nearly is, in the Kefi presentation of 6th November 2024, is 10.5p per share.
Now we won't get to that price until we are producing, probably not until we have a full year's production, which means 2027, so perhaps mid 2008. But that is only 4 years away; and I will be very surprised if we have not increased that NPV by then.
We are by way of paying ALL the bank debt at the end of the first year; so there will then be many millions available for dividends.
10.5p is less than I had hoped for - but fully acceptable to me. How about everyone else? |
TK is the first to be developed though, Saudi is a few years yet.
HA didn't need to be wedded to Saudi with both time and money if he was going to get the confetti machine out for years to continue with both projects and then give Saudi away on the cheap. I don't want the Saudi projects to be sold but HA has left himself no choice.
He has very little bargaining power because he's managed to run down the company funds and has overseen a huge drop in share price because he's issued so many shares previously. I pity long term holders despite only being a fairly recent one myself with an investment that's more of a punt. |
You are stretching it a bit Taxloss. As there is no hole in the ground there cannot be anyone standing at the top.
If you are suggesting (as I think you are) that I think Harry is a liar then you are absolutely wrong. I do not think he is, and I have never seen or heard him tell a lie/ (or read one from him for that matter. Yes, he has been over optimistic at times, but that goes with the territory IMHO.
And I would rather have an over optimistic CEo than an under optimistic one any day. |
Remember the Irish definition of a gold mine? "A hole in the ground, with a liar standing at the top". So let me get this right, it is not in this case because there is no hole in the ground. You do not dispute that there is a liar standing at the top. Now that is amusing. |
Barrick's small VHMS in Saudi was 46.28 million tonnes @ 1.79% Cu Hawiah's resource is 29 million tonnes @ 0.89% CuNot exactly world class IMHO |
Extract of Catberts post from lse
"Based on the information provided, there appears to be significant expansion potential for the underground resource at Tulu Kapi:
The current underground Mineral Resource (below 1,400m RL) is reported as 1.2 million tonnes at 5.69 g/t gold, containing 220,000 ounces. However, this is considered preliminary and focused only on the area directly below the open pit.
KEFI expects to "significantly expand the potential underground resource". The company notes that gold grades increase with depth at Tulu Kapi.
There is potential for the high-grade lodes to extend 600-800m further northwards, under the UNDP lode. This could potentially triple the underground resource.
KEFI anticipates the possibility of over 1 million ounces in the underground resource.
The last drill hole in the deeper areas returned 90 meters at 2.8 g/t gold, indicating mineralization continues at depth1.
KEFI plans to complete a Definitive Feasibility Study on the underground mine during construction of the open pit, along with extensional drilling at depth.
The company's business plan includes introducing initial underground mining to increase production, potentially lifting gold output to 179,000 oz per year average over 7-8 years, and ultimately potentially beyond 200,000 oz per year1.
In summary, while the current underground resource is modest at 220,000 ounces, KEFI sees potential to expand this significantly, possibly to over 1 million ounces, through further exploration and development of the deeper and northern extensions of the mineralization. The company plans to actively pursue this expansion potential alongside development of the open pit mine."
These considerations are separate to the other possible lodes adjacent to the site which were subject to the prior loss of these areas to a competitior favoured by the then minister of mines.
TK in other words has the capacity to double in size with just the underground plus we might recover our lost cow which wandered off to our neighbour's field but was always our cow and will surely and rightly be returned to us in due course.
Harry thinks its a 10 bagger already. Plus the underground, plus the lost cow. Plus there are other areas in Ethiopia which we have exploration licences for. Where would you put your $10m?
Me personally, I'd like to have my cake and eat it. Wouldn't we all?
But here, I'm happy with the call Harry and our BOD has made."
...
Personally even with all that still think the ball has been dropped with Saudi though.
Katsys post about the world class assets in Saudi made me chuckle, now we are likely going to sell them off they are suddenly world class. That's about the only laugh I had today though. |
I guess it is difficult for commercials to visualise. Well let's hope for this final funding for TK to be done and dusted eventually.Best thing you could probably do for your Grandkids Goatie is buy some bitcoin but wait until next bear market low even though it'll likely pump hard from here. They will thank you for it. |
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