 Edison's report out on Kefi today -
G&M worth more than its book value
Removing KEFI’s obligation to pay US$10m to maintain its stake in G&M at 25% will be a welcome relief for the company. However, the impression that this values the remainder of the stake at US$15m is misleading, as the shareholders’ agreement regarding dilution for contributions/non-contributions between the founding shareholders is based on historical costs of investment, whereas the sale of a shareholding to a partner or a third party is on an open market basis. Our last valuation of KEFI in March 2024 was 2.21p per share. Adjusting for the interim passage of time, one year’s delay to Tulu Kapi, one year’s gold price inflation and slightly different financing terms, our updated valuation (all else being equal) would be 2.31p. Reducing KEFI’s interest in G&M to 15% lowers this to 2.15p. Selling its residual interest for US$15m would reduce it further to 2.02p per share. However, using a long-term copper price of US$10,000/t, we calculate a value for KEFI’s 15% stake in Hawiah (based on potential dividends discounted at 10% pa) of US$32.0m and one for Jibal Qutman of US$17.2m, for a total of US$49.2m, or 0.62p per KEFI share, while still leaving its interest in Tulu Kapi intact. A discount may be applied to this total to reflect the projects’ stages of development, although this remains to be seen and depends upon the partners’ confidence in the project. Our financial forecasts are based on KEFI maintaining a 15% interest in G&M but will be revised as soon as a deal is concluded.
Valuation: Potential 48.9% internal rate of return
We calculate that KEFI’s residual assets could generate average free cash flow of c £82.4m in FY27–32 (almost unchanged from £82.3m previously), making average (maximum potential) dividends of 0.59p per share in FY28–34 possible and valuing KEFI at 2.15p per share (cf 2.21p/share previously) fully diluted. At current metals prices, however, this valuation increases to 6.33p now and to 9.27p in FY28 (plus a potential further c 2.25p per share for Guji-Komto), implying an internal rate of return of 48.9% in sterling terms over the next 13 years. Our timing assumes Tulu Kapi starts commissioning in late 2026. |
What sort of goatfoolery is going on here now? |
Just out of interest - who is it that has finally seen the light?? |
There is little satisfaction in some people finally seeing the light. Even those who would immediately filter or slag off anyone who pointed out the blatantly obvious.
Next stop is another massive dilution exercise, to 'clear the financial situation ready for the launch of TK'. Again. For the third or fourth time. |
Anyone know if I can buy shares in Artar.
Must be better bet than Kefi. Just got another 10% for 10mill debt and are probably favourites to snap up last 15%. |
Let's hope nothing kicks off in Ethiopia and completely screws us. All the eggs in one basket and shareholders lose all the prospects of Saudia Arabia, couldn't get much worse.Let's see if Harry joins the G & M board latter down the line as a thank you for shafting the long term investors. |
What a dilemma for Harry. Needs to big up the joint venture to try to extract the best price (good luck with that) & tell us we are better off without it. Mind you, he is the master of spin. What a guy. We are so lucky to have him. :-( |
Is ARTAR quoted on any exchange or totally private co. |
It isn’t ‘a short term business case’, it was the only option available to keep it going, surely you can see that rob?
Essentially flogging off the family silver to keep the roof over their head for a while longer. |
Heliman I can see the short term business case its just I see it as a massive missed opportunity if they go down this route as they should have been able to twin track Ethiopia and Saudi. With the benefit of hindsight the should have probably split the company in two and spun off Saudi. |
Rob, the party is OK.Pretty girl walking in soon :-D |
How many times have shareholders and management sent out false hopes. |
Rob , my LSE post
This I think is a better long term alternative . Cheer Up!
I like the fact that they can put the proceeds into future Ethiopia exploration that they will have 100% control of. Should they make future discoveries then all of the existing business contracts and contacts will be used to cookie cut. This could be a much more lucrative long term than being a junior partner in SA where our influence will only ever diminish over tim |
Kind of playing out how I think it would but guess I should have expected nothing different a long term trade for most these days is a couple of days why would they think three four five years down the road.
Especially annoyed for all the long termers that got into this as a Saudi play.
Tempted to take a break from posting just sell up when kefi should multi bag on Ethiopia progress and high gold price.
Kind feel like the kid at a party when everyone else is enjoying themselves and your not. |
This is dragging on far too long and is becoming tedious - false dawns only too often and blind faith being led by CEO. |
Copy of my post LSE thread.
......
Simply not good enough. Big mistake $10 million in the scheme of things is peanuts that things have got to this stage suggests a neglect of the Saudi side at management level and lack of ability to focus on Saudi and Ethiopia at the same time at that level.They with the quality of the projects in Saudi should be able to borrow that money especially with full TK launch around the corner.
I would suggest that management has lost objectivity over a period of years and favoured Ethiopia over Saudi when the best future prospects were always in Saudi. Management should have been looking at JV and partnerships in Saudi to make it more manageable all along and if the management was not capable of doing that it should have stepped down and made room for some new blood that was.
I can see now why Kefi was disingenuous over not flagging up its new licence area when other companies were as it would highlight the great potential of the prospects there when the company was effectively selling the family silver.
Main strength of the company has been it Geo team making discovery after discovery in Saudi just a bit clueless to not realize that years ago and capitalize on it.
It should not be rocket science to make things work in Saudi and its just bizarre trying to get out of Saudi when everyone else is desperate to get in.
....
Well made my point but guess its probably futile as the majority will see the eighty percent of TK compared to a minority interest in Saudi and the cash injection into kefi and think happy days.
Personally as an investor not a trader I am more interested in long term potential and Saudi has the potential to accelerate projects much faster than Ethiopia if you can get projects two or three times the size up and running twice as fast its just the same or better than a higher percentage in Ethiopia.
Think the main problem is Harry fell in love with Ethiopia. |
Kicking myself for topping-up last week. Can’t see the markets looking too favourably on this latest little nugget of news.
Way I see it at present is that TK funding conclusion is further away today than it was at the start of Q4 2024 and it now looks as if the asset which was going to turn us into a billion dollar company is about to be lost for little reward, after all the time and hot air expended on it……for many years!!
Don’t agree with one of the posters on the other forum who seems to think that this news must mean that TK is now a certainty. Why? As things stand, in my view, for situation at halfway through Q4 2024, read the similar situation at halfway through Q4 2020.
But I do agree with another poster on the other forum. The CEO needs to step down. Now!
This endless debacle trundles on, except that one of the little bits of hope that kept some of us sceptics/realists going is about to disappear. |
Ah yes Jaylett, but you seem to have forgotten who we have going in to bat for us. Also Artar are magnificent stakeholders & they will be incredibly generous. Bring on bonus proposals for Harry, I say. Arrrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhh!!! |
Sounds like the partners are squeezing KEFI out. Still, if we free ourselves from some sizeable debt and realise a good sale price , it could be worse |
We are 5-10 % more in TK than we hoped and it's 5 yrs nearer than SA. We are 10% down on sa but out of $10m debt.I'll take that. |
You're smoking crack if you think they will get ~£30m for the rest. What position of strength do Kefi have, exactly? A forced seller with zero cash flow and the millstone of TK hanging around their neck. And the buyer can simply wait them out and take it through non-payment of commitments. One hiccup in Ethiopia now and the game is up.
It will go for a song. |
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