Harry interview from lse thread Bear666. |
Thanks Rob.
I’ll take that as a no. |
(Peter Schiff) |
 Monte
The info about the secondary mine at TK is in the RNSs along with Harry comments about higher gold price meaning quicker pay back which obviously meant the two banks were more open to lending more money.
"Net cash flow at $2,600/oz gold in first full year of production alone (c.$258M) –
more than exceeds planned project debt"
If you compare the deal it has been tweeked as well after the gold price breakout post June from ar4ound the 2300 level. It lays out the case on slide Tulu Kapi Project Economics between just the open pit and both pits slide 34 just a huge difference in cashflows and IRR.
June 2024
$280-300M from Debt & Equity Risk Notes(“ERN”):
• $190M Bank Debt
• $90-110M ERN
• $20-40M share issues by KEFI subsidiaries
November 2024
• $285M from Debt & Equity Risk Notes (“ERN”)
• $240M Bank Debt
• $45M ERN
• $15M equity capital into subsidiary
• $20M from Govt equity subscription in subsidiary
Also big difference in proportion coming from the ERN the haggling over which could have been slowing things down and was the component that was more open to change being unlike most of the rest of the finance likely to be paid in Birr.
Likely you could not just change mine design half way through so either you had to decide to go for both mines from the start or complete one before the other.
Neil doubt anyone who has been here for a while would support dumping Saudi for Ethiopia. What has to be worked out though does kefi have capacity to drill enough targets on its own and can it JV some areas especially now it has got a brand new plum area from the Saudi government. |
Have any avatars asked why the funding agreement in the original amount was not simply concluded to allow things to crack on and additional funding, as required, renegotiated further down the road?
tia |
Is the likely outcome that we move sideways for 2 months and then after the strategic review sell our share of the Saudi assets to Artar for .006p the market capital of Kefi.Not what I invested in Kefi for. |
And the sooner the chance of dividends. |
In Rough, round figures based on AICs of $1100:
At $2100 - margin is $1000 and NPV 6.9p
At $2600 - margin is $1500 and NPV 10.5 p - approximately 1.5 x 6.9p
At $3000 - margin is $1900 and NPV would be about 13.1p
At $3500 - margin is $2400 and NPV would be about 16.6p
The precise figures will vary a bit, not least because AICs (and AISCs) include the government royalty of 7% and, so, the costs do increase with increasing price of gold.
There is also the question of what effect the gold-linked bonds (to be issued but not specified) will have.
On the positive side, the higher the operating margin, the quicker the repayment of the bank debt and, thus, the increased profitability because of the faster reduction of debt service costs. |
If considering an investment, there are certain words/statements that may put you looking to the future whereas, they can also be totally misleading:-
Projected
Seeking approval
Expected
Readiness
Sound familiar?
Then to be comparing gold prices and expected profits whilst some two years off
first dig, pie in the sky, especially when shovels are missing from the site? |
TA is $100k or $1m possible for bitcoin |
What would anyone pay for it? Pretty much nothing is the only conclusion. If this was a private enterprise, it would have been moth balled and eventually written off 10+ years ago.
It would simply be a case of taking it off their hands. |
If i am reading this right in todays RNS and presentation they state Tulu Kapi revenue will be £101M per year for a minimum of ten years,that is based on $2600 gold price.And Kefi expected to retain an 80% stake,have to say i am looking at this as a potential portfolio maker now.I have held a smallish amount of these for a few months now but think i might go large shortly and maybe in the SIPP.Note they say in RNS that the 6.9p to 10.5p valuation is based on $2100 gold and not the current near $2700 and probably going higher.Surely this has TAKEOVER written all over it ????
From Rns :
"Tulu Kapi's high grades and high recoveries offer the potential to repay all project finance debt from the estimated net cash flows of the first full year of production, at US$2,600/oz gold price. Moreover, at US$2,100/oz to 2,600/oz gold, Project NPV to KEFI shareholders is 6.9 to 10.5 pence per share, 12-17 times the current share price, ignoring our other assets." |
Placing .. who are these loons,
It's like saying a club have just signed Messi, then proclaiming he'll be on the transfer list a week later, fekin idiots |
there's going to be one hell of a dilutive placing in the offing. |
AMAK reports 181% rise in net profit for nine months
(Saudi mining)
Maaden 9M 2024 profit soars to SAR 2.98B; Q3 at SAR 971M
Riyadh, November 05, 2024, SPA -- The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources announced the winners of mining tenders, awarding exploration licenses at six mining sites in various regions of the Kingdom.
These sites contain a range of base and precious metals, including gold, silver, zinc, and copper. The licensing is granted as part of the Accelerated Exploration Program, which aims to expedite the exploration and utilization of Saudi Arabia's mineral wealth, valued at SAR9.3 trillion.
The ministry said that ANS Exploration and Odyssey Metals limited consortium won an exploration license for the Umm Qusur site, in Riyadh, which contains gold, silver, lead, and zinc.
Gold and Minerals Ltd Company won an exploration license for the Wadi Ad Dawsh site, in Aseer, which contains deposits of gold, silver, and copper.
The Auking and Barg Alsaman mining company consortium won an exploration license for the Shaib Marqansite, in Riyadh, with copper, silver, and gold deposits.
The Metal Bank Limited and mining holding company consortium won an exploration license for the Wadi Al Junah site, in Aseer, which contains copper, zinc, silver, and gold.
RWAKED and Masharf consortium won an exploration license for the Hazm Shubatsite, in Aseer, which holds gold deposits, while Midad Almona and Tinka Resources consortium were granted exploration license for the Huwaymidan site, in Makkah, which contains gold as well.
The ministry noted that four companies received exploration licenses for the first time, and highlighted the Kingdom's attractiveness as a prime destination for investment in the mining sector.
Granting these licenses is part of the ongoing efforts to improve the investment climate in the Kingdom, providing opportunities for both local and international investors in this promising sector. The latest licenses reflect investor confidence in the Kingdom's regulatory framework and transparency in the mining sector, which aligns with the Vision 2030 goal of making mining the third pillar of the national economy, and strengthening local industries based on mineral resources.
A total of 44 bids were received from 22 local and international companies, 10 of which were bidding for the first time. The bids were evaluated taking into consideration technical expertise, work programs, and social and environmental commitments.
The six sites cover an area of 850 square kilometers.
The winning companies have committed to spending over SAR75 million on exploration activities and an additional around SAR5 million on community development in neighboring areas, contributing to job creation for local residents.
The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources is inviting exploration and mining companies to take advantage of the next opportunity to obtain exploration licensing at seven sites on an area of more than 1,070 square kilometers. Bids may be submitted until the end of November. |
I understand constructive arguments and well balanced opinions but I can never understand why non holders waste their time arguing and posting unless agendas are in play, move on |
Extracts
Saudi Arabia has granted 11 mining exploration permits to local and international companies for six sites under its Accelerated Exploration Program, which aims to unlock the Kingdom’s underutilized mineral resources.
Gold and Minerals Co. secured a license for the Wadi Doush site in Asir, an area rich in gold, silver, and copper ore deposits, covering 157 square kilometers.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, the value of the minerals in Aseer is estimated at SR240 billion. Zinc is estimated at SR78.7 billion, gold at SR73.9 billion, copper at SR60.9 billion, and silver at SR22.5 billion.
Exploration enablement program
The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources and the Ministry of Investment launch an exploration enablement program to accelerate greenfields exploration and attract investment in the Kingdom’s mineral sector.
hxxps://taadeen.sa/sites/default/files/2024-05/EEP%20Guidelines.pdf
One application per license.
▪ Maximum of 15 applications per company.
▪ First 5 applications per company are also eligible for talent / labor incentive support and are not subject to any clawback conditions (any EEP funding provided for approved expenditure will not be repayable).
▪ Next 10 applications are not eligible for talent / labor incentive support and any EEP funding provided will be subject to a clawback condition, repayable on mining production from the license, as set out in the Funding Agreement.
Technical Funding ▪
A total of SAR 4 million of funding is available per license for Eligible Costs (see Appendix 2).
▪ Funding is set at a maximum of 25% of the eligible costs, up to SAR 4 million.
▪ To incentivize early expenditure and a faster proportional return of expended capital, repayment of Eligible Costs will be by declining percentages as set out in Table 2. |
Indeed , Kefi has lots of red flags for any potential investor |
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