Judges Scientific Share Discussion Threads

[slopsjon2] 18/9/2018 07:30

Interim results. Record revenue, profit up 50%

Outlook "In the last three years, trading has displayed a second half bias which is not expected to be replicated this year. Despite this, since the end of the period under review, order intake has continued to be positive and Organic intake for the first ten weeks of the second half is significantly ahead of the same period in 2017 giving the Board confidence that adjusted profit before tax and EPS will be ahead of current market expectations for the year as a whole. "

[lullabite] 20/8/2018 18:24

Thanks great company and great thread

[cornishman33] 19/8/2018 22:25

I do not know why he reduced, but he is nearly 70 years old with shares worth over £20m. Perhaps he wants have some fun before he is too old. Also JDG is very illiquid so could be helpful to the market with a larger free float.

[lullabite] 18/8/2018 18:59

Any of you knows why David sold part of his holding in judges back then in 2017? He used to own 915k shares , if anyone knows i would be very gratefull

[cockerhoop] 01/8/2018 09:09

Wilmdav,

Stockopedia have 2018 Rev £75.4m PAT £7.3m 133.4p EPS
2019 Rev £78.3m PAT £8.2m 138.9p EPS

Which certainly make better sense.

[wilmdav] 31/7/2018 22:41

According to Sharepad, forecasts for JDG are

31st Dec 2017 2018E 2019ETurnover (£m) 71.4 75.3 77.2Pre-tax profit (£m) 10.4 10.8 11.1eps (p) 131.9 85.9 137.1



2017 PTP and eps figures are company adjusted, which are calculated on more or less
the same basis as broker forecasts.

The 2018 eps forecast looks like an error to me. It would mean the tax rate on £10.8m pre-tax profit would be around 48%!

Does anyone have access to an alternative 2018 eps forecast? Sharepad gets most of its data from Morning Star.

[slopsjon2] 23/7/2018 07:19

Trading Update and Notice of Interim Results
The Directors of Judges Scientific, a group involved in the buy and build of scientific instrument businesses, update shareholders and the market regarding the Group's trading performance during the first half of the current financial year.

The Group's results for the six-month period to 30 June 2018 will include a first time contribution from Oxford Cryosystems Ltd, which was acquired in July 2017. "Organic" in this statement excludes the performance of this business.

Order intake
Organic order intake in the first half was solid, showing a progression of 2.3% on the excellent performance achieved in the same period last year. On 30 June 2018, the Organic order book stood at 15.0 weeks of sales against 15.0 weeks at the beginning of 2018 and 15.4 weeks at 30 June 2017.

With bookings at Oxford Cryosystems in line with its budget, overall order intake was consistent with what is required to meet market expectations without depleting the order book. The Group's overall order book, including Oxford Cryosystems, at 30 June 2018 stood at 14.6 weeks.

First Half Performance
The solid order book from the beginning of 2018 enabled the Group to maintain the momentum gathered in 2017. Currency has still been a positive influence, despite Sterling temporarily strengthening in the first quarter. Overall the Group has delivered a solid performance, including significant progress in relation to the subsidiary that had historic production issues.

The Board expects the interim results to show strong progress in revenues, EBIT and earnings per share.

Full Year Outlook
The Group has enjoyed a good first half and the outlook for the year is positive. Although the bias towards second half performance observed in recent years may not be evident this year, the Board is confident that market expectations for the year will be achieved.

Notice of Results
The Company expects to announce its interim results for the six months to 30 June 2018 on 18 September 2018.

[cockerhoop] 15/7/2018 21:56

October 2017!

Of more interest to me is the late April 18 arrangement of new banking facilities which suggests to me they may have a fairly chunky (£10-15m) new acquisition lined up.

Last time the banking facility was increased the acquisition of Armfield quickly followed.

[lullabite] 15/7/2018 15:26

The placement happened months ago he used to own 915k shares

[thetrophyman] 10/7/2018 23:55

Hi all, I'm new to this, any ideas why judges dropped so much today?

[cornishman33] 10/7/2018 20:07

lullabite, when has David Circurel sold part of his holdings? He has 759k shares, about 12.4% of the company. I have not seen any recent rns's announcing sales.

[lullabite] 10/7/2018 16:59

Thoughts on davids placement ? Why do you think he sold part of his holdings ? What do you think of sucession? David is almost 70 years old

[tiswas] 24/5/2018 10:28

Hmm, a bit of weakness last few days.

[wilmdav] 24/3/2018 00:17

On reflection, it clearly is not acceptable to recalculate ROCE by adding back amortisation to the numerator EBIT because the denominator, capital employed, has been periodically reduced as goodwill is amortised. This means the Sharepad/Morningstar ROCE ratios are correct. I have not deleted the above post in case anyone wishes to think about it or comment.

This would seem to mean that the poor ROCE figures for 2012-2016 have been dragged down by central office costs. To extend the picture, here are the comparisons from 2008-2011.

. 2008 2009 2010 2011ROTIC 34 44 45 46ROCE(Sharepad) 16.5 15.8 (1.0) 22.7


2010 ROCE is distorted by a sizeable charge relating to convertible redeemable shares that had no bearing on the underlying performance of the company.

[wilmdav] 23/3/2018 22:45

Agreed. Excellent presentation.

One of my key ratios when researching stocks is return on capital employed,
adjusted operating profit/(total assets - current liabilities). I usually rely on Sharepad's data, which comes from Morningstar, although their capital employed denominator is always inexplicably slightly higher than if I try to calculate it.

JDG rely on ROTIC, return on invested capital, for assessing the performance of their subsidiaries. A definition is provided in the 2017 report.

"The annual rate of ROTIC is calculated by comparing attributable earnings excluding central costs, adjusting items and before interest, tax and amortisation ("EBITA") with the investment in plant and equipment, goodwill and unamortised intangibles and net current assets (excluding cash)."

I found the denominator impossible to calculate from the accounts but the presentation made clear that it represented money actually spent on the purchase of all acquisitions plus any money subsequently spent on them (very little). Property is excluded.

ROTIC clearly works for JDG but it is of less help to investors wishing to compare performance with other companies.

Below is comparison of Sharepad's ROCE and JDG's ROTIC for the last 6 years.

. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ROTIC 40 30 24 25 15 21ROCE 5.8 8.6 7.0 5.2 2.6 14.4(approx.-Sharepad figure not yet received)



In fact the Sharepad figures are pretty useless for a company like JDG for the same reason that their normalised eps figures bear little relation to brokers' forecasts. To calculate a meaningful ROCE ratio, amortisation of acquired intangibles needs to be added back to EBIT, together with other adjustments, giving adjusted EBITA as the numerator.

. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ROTIC 40 30 24 25 15 21ROCE 27 20 18 23 16 25(approx.-Sharepad capital employed figure not yet received)



These ROCE figures are excellent. Anything above 15% is generally considered to be good.

[cockerhoop] 22/3/2018 08:45

Well worth watching, gives a great insight into David's criteria for acquired companies along with how the UK undervalue small Scientific business's compared to Continental Europe and US/Canada.

JDG's is a very high class collection of business's and deserves to be valued on a premium rating imo. ROTIC of 30% achievable with a full return to profitability of the 3 under-performing units of 2016.

Oxford Cryo appears very interesting - especially the Square Kilometre Array which they're bidding for a piece of.

[tomps2] 21/3/2018 09:03

Full year results presentation for the year ending 31st December 2017 by David Cicural (CEO), Brad Ormsby (CFO) and new COO Mark Lavelle. (c50 mins)



David Cicural, CEO
Introduction – 00:17
About Judges Scientific – 00:39
The Judges group- 02:32
Key messages from 2017 results – 3:14
Introduction of new COO Mark Lavelle – 04:12

Brad Ormsby, CFO
2017 results highlights – 06:00
Performance – 08:02
Order intake – 09:22
Revenue summary – 11:19
Profit bridge – 13:06
Balance sheet & cash flow – 13:58
Return on total invested capital (ROTIC) – 15:13
Diversification – 16:44
Financial history – 17:13

David Cicural, CEO
Strategy – 18:04
Growth drivers – 18:34
Acquisitions criteria & delivery – 22:35
Oxford Cryosystems – 26:29

Summary & outlook – 29:27
Q&A – 31:11
Tax – 31:14
US offices – 32:17
ROTIC historical performance – 33:21
Armfield – 37:37
Increasing the performance – 38:45
Cash conversion – 39:33
Selling of business’s? – 42:05
Integrating the business’s (to Mark Lavelle, COO) – 43:22
Non UK acquisitions? – 46:26

[cockerhoop] 20/3/2018 08:02

I was going to suggest last night 120p+ as an estimate but 131.9p is an exceptional performance. H2 providing 77.1p!! Very solid order book going into 2018.

[wilmdav] 20/3/2018 07:24

Well ahead of forecasts on all fronts.

[wilmdav] 19/3/2018 21:30

Full year results tomorrow. According to Sharepad, forecasts are as follows.

. 2016 2017ERevenue 57.3 62.0P/T Profit(adjusted) 6.6 8.9eps(adjusted) 83.7 112.7Dividend 27.5 30.3Net debt 8.6 10.3



Adjustments are primarily for amortisation of acquired intangibles.

[finkwot] 09/3/2018 11:12

He missed out the 'aught' from his name.

[cockerhoop] 02/3/2018 10:13

NY Boy,

Have you posted on the correct thread? If you have can you expand as I'm not aware of the IMM & Lupuzor - JDG connection.

[ny boy] 02/3/2018 09:40

Like the look of these, will put in some cash when (IMM) reports top line for phase 3 Lupuzor at end if Month.