Jpmorgan Indian Investment Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 20/2/2017 10:51

India wants to make credit and debit cards obsolete for payments By Manish Singh:


Ever since India invalidated much of its cash, it has been encouraging its citizens to switch to mobile wallets and other epayment solutions. Today, it took another step in pushing its citizens to embark on the cashless payment solutions — but early boomers aren't going to like it.

The Indian government has launched BharatQR Code to enable people to pay for things they purchase without swiping their plastic cards. Instead, merchants can ask shoppers to scan a QR code and make payments directly from their bank account.

One of the biggest problem merchants and citizens faced in the aftermath of demonetization last November was the absence of non-cash payment systems.

The penetration of payment terminals machine remain low in India, with many merchants even complaining about the cost of the device and the high transaction fee. According to the government's own estimations, there are about 57.7 million merchants but only 1.5 million digital payment acceptance locations.

With BharatQR Code, the government hopes to do away with card swipe terminals as merchants will be able to generate their own QR code that will be interoperable with all banks. The government-backed National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI) has partnered with 14 major financial institutions including Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and ICICI Bank to support BharatQR, it said Monday. BharatQR Code also supports all the major three payment terminals — NPCI-backed RuPay, as well as MasterCard and Visa.

BharatQR Code can be a big blow to mobile wallet companies like Paytm, Mobiqwik and Freecharge that grew multifold since demonetization.

Most mobile wallet companies offer QR codes as a feature for merchants to accept payments. However, unlike BharatQR Code, the QR codes of these wallet companies are not interoperable and users have to use the particular wallet app in order to pay. While BharatQR Code supports most plastic cards and banks, it does not support mobile wallet companies, yet.

"BharatQR is the answer to Paytm. Hopefully banks will now be able to expand infrastructure at the rate with which Paytm did during demonetisation," AP Hota, CEO of NPCI was quoted as saying.

Paytm, India's largest mobile wallet service which has seen astronomical growth amid demonetization, announced that it will invest Rs 6 billion ($89.6 million) to help merchants across the country to start using its QR code based payment solution.

While Paytm, and other companies have been the winner in the India's cash crunched market over the past few months, the government has been working aggressively to get its own services out in the public.

In December, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched NCPI-backed BHIM app. The government has also formulated UPI (Unique Payment Interface), that banks can use to make it as easier for people to send money as sending a text message is. The vast majority of banks in India now support UPI.

Even for users who do not have a smartphone or any phone, the government plans to have fingerprint scanner based PoS terminals where customers can simply scan their fingerprint to make payments.

[loganair] 15/2/2017 10:12

Economy to grow at 7.4% next FY: India Ratings and Research:

"India Ratings and Research expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 7.4 per cent year-on-year in FY18...Ind-Ra, however, has revised down GDP growth estimate for 2016-17 to 6.8 per cent from 7.9 per cent, which is even lower than Central Statistical Organisation's advanced estimate of 7.1 per cent," the rating agency said in a statement.

Backed by consumption demand and government spending, the gross value added of the three production sectors -- agriculture, industry and services — would grow at 3 per cent, 6.1 per cent and 9.1 per cent year-on-year respectively in 2017-18, the agency said.

"While private final consumption expenditure is expected to grow at 8.9 per cent, the government final consumption expenditure is expected to clock 9 per cent growth in 2017-18," it said.

The rating agency said that it expects the current account deficit to come in at 1 per cent of the GDP in 2017-18 as against 0.9 per cent in 2016-17.

"This will help the rupee trade at an average $69.18 in FY18," it noted.

Observing that while India is likely to face continued headwinds on the exports front due to the play out of Brexit and the anti-globalisation stance of US President Donald Trump, it pointed out that imports are unlikely to pick up so long as the domestic investment cycle does not revive.

As against the popular perception, Ind-Ra said the main setback to investment growth came from the negative 2.2 per cent growth in the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) of household sector.

Ind-Ra expects GFCF to grow at 4.9 per cent in 2017-18.

India's economic growth forecast of 7.4 per cent by Ind-Ra in 2017-18 is on the upper end of the 6.75 to 7.5 per cent band estimated in the Economic Survey.

[loganair] 13/2/2017 10:38

By Andrew Allen:

India will overtake the US by 2050 to become the second largest economy, regardless of how their GDP is measured, while Indonesia could elbow advanced economies such as Japan and Germany aside and move into fourth place by 2050.

The E7 economies of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey will grow at an annual average rate of around 3.5% over the next 34 years, compared to only around 1.6% for advanced G7 nations.

John Hawksworth, PwC chief economist and co-author of the report, said: “The E7 could comprise almost 50% of world GDP by 2050, while the G7’s share declines to only just over 20%.”

By 2050 the report predicts Indonesia and Mexico will be larger than Japan, Germany, the UK or France, while Turkey could overtake Italy.

“In terms of growth, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around 5% per year,” the report said.

Colombia and Poland are projected to be the fastest growing large economies in their respective regions.

However, today’s advanced economies will continue to have higher than average incomes and, with the possible exception of Italy, G7 countries will continue to sit above the E7 countries in terms of GDP per capita.

Convergence of income levels across the world is likely to continue well beyond 2050 with China gaining middling average income level by 2050 while India will remain in the lower half of the income range, given its low starting point.

“While strong population growth can be a key driver of total GDP growth, it will take much longer to eliminate differences in average income levels,” said the report.

Global economic growth will average around 3.5% per year to 2020 but it will slow to around 2.7% in the 2020s, 2.5% in the 2030s and 2.4% in the 2040s, as many advanced economies experience a marked decline in their working age populations.

[diku] 10/2/2017 11:51

690p again?..

[amt] 26/1/2017 08:18

Why isnt this going up when Indian market has been going up strongly

[diku] 16/1/2017 21:48

Revisit to 690p?...

[woodcutter] 10/1/2017 11:53

and again today

woody

[woodcutter] 09/1/2017 15:25

been buying today

woody

[tenapen] 08/1/2017 13:03

.

Edited

[loganair] 19/12/2016 18:16

India becomes the 5th Largest economy:

"Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20 per cent decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK's 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India's GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of INR 66.6 per $1," the report said.

Interestingly, economic think-tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) had, in December 2011, forecasted that India would become the "fifth largest by 2020" but India has crossed this significant milestone much sooner.

"Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8 per cent p.a. compared to UK's growth of 1 to 2 per cent p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India's economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects," the report said.

Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Kiren Rijiju while celebrating India's landmark, said, "India overtakes UK & becomes 5th largest GDP after USA, China, Japan & Germany."

[loganair] 15/12/2016 18:22

India’s growth offers new opportunities to investors by Simon Crinage:

ndia remains, for investors, a potential growth opportunity, easily the fastest-growing of the major economies. A reforming government has achieved the long-sought goal of a uniform sales tax, turning this nation of 1.3 billion people into a truly single market.

Strong growth:

In a world where investment fashion is as fickle as any other sort, markets can fall in and out of favour with dizzying speed. Six months ago, India was the toast of investors, a safe haven in contrast to those other emerging economies such as Brazil and China that had encountered turbulence.

Now, China has steadied while India’s growth remains sub-optimal, though perhaps only slightly so.

But fashion is a poor guide to investment success. India remains one of the most attractive growth stories in a world starved of substantial economic expansion.

The IMF’s view:

In its most recent World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said India grew by 7.6 per cent last year and will grow by the same amount this year and next.

To put that in context, the IMF is forecasting for emerging markets and developing countries as a whole growth of just 4.2 per cent this year and 4.6 per cent next year.

India remains a compelling growth opportunity. Furthermore, it has been so for some time, according to Rajendra Nair, manager of the JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust.

The investment trust has been open for business since 1994, and he explains: “In that time the economy has gone through multiple shocks and crises and domestic economic and political cycles. The trust has compounded on a 9.64 per cent annualised basis, a better return than most asset classes.”

Please note that past performance is not an indication of current and future performance. The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

Reforming government:

India is halfway through the first term of a radical, reforming government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It proposed economic liberalisation and a tough stance on corruption.

To many people, the jewel in the government’s crown is the passage of legislation introducing a Goods and Services Tax (GST), a value-added levy to be applied nationwide. This sweeps away a tangle of national and state taxes, some of which gave rise to double taxation, and promises to bring about a genuine common market across the sub-continent, unleashing a likelihood of great potential for future growth.

The government has been praised also for its attempts to reform the country’s subsidy mechanisms and for its focus on public sector capital expenditure.

Overcoming disappointments.

But there have been disappointments. The growth rate is not as high as some would have liked and would have expected. The investment cycle has not picked up because private sector utilisation of capacity is still low.

On some estimates, India is 12 to 18 months away from a sustained revival in private sector capital expenditure.

In part this is because the global environment has been weak. This can be seen in the Indian steel industry, where extra capacity is not currently being planned.

The government has had to step into the gap with public sector capital expenditure, for example in the railways.

Earlier this year, the IMF suggested this sort of public expenditure could attract private investment. The IMF also praised “recent improvements in the quality and efficiency of public expenditure”.

Furthermore, as we saw earlier, even sub-par Indian economic growth is still highly attractive in a world in which the IMF is forecasting just 3.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent average global expansion for this year and next.

Tapping into opportunities:

India is likely to be a good opportunity for investors to share in the growth of what is, on some measures, an inspiring success story. No-one knows where India’s economic journey will go next, but those familiar with this complex and fascinating country will be best-placed to benefit.

[sllab101] 13/10/2016 18:25

Hi, can anyone point me towards new ticker for Indian ticker please.Thanks

[loganair] 23/9/2016 10:20

Here's Why You Should Get Excited About Investing in India's Economy - by Kim Iskyan (founder of Truewealth Publishing, an independent investment research company based in Singapore.)

China is Asia's 800-pound gorilla. But another Asian giant is home to the world's fastest-growing large economy: India. And as India's economy grows, it will be getting more attention, especially when it comes to the tech revolution currently underway there.

As a reminder: India has the world's second-largest population and and now has the world's seventh-biggest economy. Its economy was about the same size as Brazil's in 2015 (and has now surpassed it), and is larger than Russia's.

Overall, India is still very poor, though. Even though it has a $2 trillion economy, it ranked 145th in the world last year based on per capita GDP.

But extreme poverty in India has dropped sharply. According to consultants McKinsey & Company, in 1994, 45% of India's people lived in extreme poverty. By 2012, that number had dropped to 22%, or 270 million people.

India's Forecast Economic Growth:

Over the next five years, it's projected that India's economy will grow faster than any other large economy. This rapid growth should slowly help to take care of India's high levels of poverty.

To help give some context to India's economic growth and size, McKinsey also compared the GDP of certain countries in 2014 with the projected size of India's largest cities' economies in 2030. Based on current estimates, by 2030 the third-largest city in India, Delhi, will have an economy the size of the Philippines' economy in 2014. By 2030, Mumbai's economy will equal the size of Malaysia's economy of two years ago. And the western Indian city of Ahmedabad will have an economy as large as Vietnam's was in 2014.

Explosive Growth Coming for India's Technology Sector:

Technology is set to lead India's economic growth story. There are already more than 1 billion cell phone users in India. With 462 million users, it also has the world's second-largest online population (after China). These huge numbers of mobile and internet users are laying the foundation for explosive growth in mobile internet, digital payments, cloud computing and the internet of things, among other technologies.

When it comes to India and China, it can be hard to wrap your head around the numbers because they're so big. For instance, 10 billion appliances, mobile phones and tablets connected over the internet -- in a single country -- is a hard number to grasp. But it's very big.

If these technologies are adopted as predicted, they will have a major impact on India's economy. According to McKinsey, they could add $500 billion to $1 trillion to the economy each year by 2025. That would equal 20% to 30% of India's incremental economic growth from 2012 to 2025.

India still has to overcome some enormous challenges before joining the world's economic big leagues. So, even though it has great long-term growth prospects, it will be a bumpy road and may not be the best investment for everyone's portfolio right now.

But when it comes to investing, if you get the big picture right, it helps a lot. And the long-term outlook for India is very bright right now.

[badtime] 12/8/2016 12:57

Yes ..doing very nicely