Jpmorgan Indian Investment Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 03/6/2019 12:01

The airports are being modernized and made better, however the roads and railways definitely need upgrading and modernizing thereby being able to better and more easily transport goods around India. This will help to increase India's GDP further and also increase employment.

[loganair] 03/6/2019 11:51

I disagree as I think the key for Modi is to improve India's infrastructure, especially the road and rail networks.

[loganair] 24/5/2019 11:20

For many years I've read that India is around 30 years behind China.

India has a large enough population to take up the baton from China, with a decade of 7% to 10% year on year GDP growth.

Within 10 years, India has the capacity to grow to over take Germany to become the 4th largest economy in the world and to be vying with Japan for the 3rd spot.

[loganair] 22/5/2019 12:43

India’s economy will ‘come back with a bang,’ country’s ‘Warren Buffett’ says:

Billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said he is very bullish about India’s medium-to-long-term growth prospects, predicting double-digit figures.

He said that the economic situation in the country started to improve after five years of a banking crisis and the introduction of important reforms.

“We are now having improvement in credit culture, we are having integrity come to the fore,” said Jhunjhunwala, who is commonly referred to as the “Warren Buffett of India.”

According to the investor, the government has taken steps to improve the ease of doing business in the country. “The China-America spat on trade is (also) a great opportunity for India. I don’t see any reason why growth in India will not come back with a bang,” he said.

The country’s growth will likely reach around eight to nine percent in the near future and then jump into double-digit figures in the longer term, Jhunjhunwala suggested.

“We’ve raised our rate of growth in every decade since independence,” he said, adding, “I think India’s sitting on what is going to be the highest level of growth it has ever seen from 2020 to 2030.”

The businessman also specified promising sectors on the Indian market for investors. They include aviation, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure and banking.

[loganair] 10/12/2018 20:55

Urjit Patel’s resignation gives investors reason to think twice about India:

India’s economic policy is in turmoil after its central bank boss steps down.

Urjit Patel, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has announced his resignation. He cited “personal reasons”, but the move comes at a time when the gulf between the government and the RBI is widening. The government would no doubt like to see an easing of monetary policy, which would create a politically convenient economic boom before elections in the spring. The saga raises questions about the attitude towards institutions of the ruling, Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party.

The core of the argument between the bank and the government could be taken from an economics textbook. The government, facing a general election next year and a large fiscal deficit, would probably like the RBI to ease up on monetary policy. Furthermore it would like it to hand over a bigger dividend from its seigniorage profits—in effect giving this money to the government to spend. That would likely induce inflation, eventually compelling the RBI, which follows an inflation targeting framework, to tighten policy. But in the meantime, there would be a short, politically convenient economic boom. The RBI, which does not need to get re-elected, is understandably less keen on this plan.

Added to that basic story are plenty of subplots. The RBI wants to thrash India’s debt-addled public sector banks (which make up 70% of total banking assets) back into shape. The government would rather they were allowed to lend even more. Arguments swirl, too, about the regulation of private-sector banks. Kotak Mahindra Bank, one of the biggest, announced on the same day that it was going to court to stop the RBI from forcing its biggest shareholder, Uday Kotak, to divest some of his holding.

The bigger question is what all this says about Indian politics. On coming to power in 2014, the prime minister Narendra Modi, and his party the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), offered a combination of liberal market economics and cultural populism. But as elections near, the first part of that has broken down. In 2016 the previous governor of the RBI, Raghuram Rajan, left office at the end of a single term after relations with the government deteriorated. He now teaches in America. Earlier this year, Arvind Subramanian, the government’s chief economic advisor, also resigned and returned to America to teach. In place, people like Mr Gurumurthy have become more prominent.

According to Mr Rajan, speaking on television, the resignation—and what it says about the government’s attitudes to institutions—is something that “all Indians should be concerned about”. A sharp fall in the rupee seems to suggest that financial markets agree.

[loganair] 04/10/2018 14:42

In my opinion the two main reasons are the continued rise in the oil price and the general overly extreme negative sentiments towards emerging markets in general.


On the side line - this year there is likely to be $800bln share buy back for the S&P 500 which is driving their EPS growth. In otherwise around 80% of EPS growth in the S&P 500 companies this year will be due to share buy backs.

[jhan66] 04/10/2018 14:28

There’s a few documented reasons, ruppee, oil as well as that Savings & Loans problem. We’ve probably got these headaches for a while but I think I’ll hold on for longer term. Strong dollar may weaken over mid term elections run up for a start

[chc15] 04/10/2018 13:22

F me, this taking a beating now

[loganair] 26/9/2018 11:33

Crude-oil demand in India is expected to rise to some 10 million barrels per day (bpd) or 500 million tons with in the next 20 years around 4.7 million bpd in 2017, according to the country’s biggest refiner, Indian Oil Corporation.

Total global oil demand is forecast to rise by another 15.8 million with in the same period said Partha Ghosh, executive director for optimization at the company, as saying on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore.

Of this expected global demand growth, India’s demand growth would be around 24 percent, Ghosh said.

India’s economic growth is driving energy demand growth, but the rate of that growth is expected to slow by 2024-2025.

Ghosh noted that India’s economy is highly sensitive to oil prices. Estimates have it that a $10 a barrel rise in oil prices reduces India’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2-0.3 percent, the manager said.

India—which imports around 80 percent of the oil it consumes—will see its energy consumption growing at the fastest rate among all major economies over the next 20 years, according to the BP Energy Outlook 2018. Oil imports will rise by 175 percent and account for 65 percent of the increase in energy imports, BP says.

According to OPEC’s just released 2018 World Oil Outlook, India is projected to be the country with the largest additional oil demand and the fastest growth in the period to 2040. India will see the largest additional demand of 5.8 million bpd, likely passing the 10-million-bpd mark sometime towards the end of the forecast period, OPEC said.

Over the past few months, rising oil prices and the weakening Indian currency, the rupee, have already created a perfect storm for India, and refiners and the government are said to be considering various measures to reduce their spending on oil imports, including hedging or using stockpiles.

[loganair] 25/9/2018 13:23

At the moment I think Russia (JRS) is a better investment.

[chc15] 25/9/2018 12:26

I topped up, anyone else...

[chc15] 24/9/2018 09:59

Big discount now, anyone buying in..i may top up now.

[chc15] 21/9/2018 20:44

Yes v bad, worth topping up now?

[pjw956] 21/9/2018 20:23

not a great day today !

[loganair] 11/8/2018 15:02

For some reason I've always liked Hyderabad, however Madras felt overly hot to me while had lots of fun in Trivandrum.

[loganair] 10/8/2018 18:49

BI - How's the terrible smog going, especially in the mornings when the wood stoves light up for morning breakfast as I remember of Bombay.