Jpmorgan Global Core Rea... Share Discussion Threads

[ih_417323] 17/9/2024 11:40

Thanks SKYSHIP

In case anyone cant see the thread that SKYSHIP is referring to, it is here:

worth a look. DYOR of course

[skyship] 14/9/2024 16:54

I have added JARA to the Voluntary Liquidation thread (VL); though not yet to the Header as formal liquidation not yet confirmed.

The two abrdn REITs are the most secure upsides in this VL field - see the Header and my comment there today.

[mwj1959] 12/9/2024 13:23

I don't think that they will be doing any more buybacks...a liquidation means that they will all be bought back at NAV.
Risk / reward for anyone buying around current levels certainly looks attractive, albeit whilst recognising that any liquidation is not going to be straightforward and there is NAV risk.

[affemoose] 12/9/2024 12:06

I'm looking at trades atm - there is clearly an uptick in volumes as teh spreads have come down. as low as 0.8pence yesterday.

There was also a trade today for 590,000 shares (£450k). Definitely a buy given the price paid. Assuming this clears (unlike a chunky 'buy' yesterday that was later reversed) this is far above the 'normal' share buy back volume of JARA. The normal range of buy backs is 50,000 - 100,000 and is usually a multiple of 25,000. So clearly this is way outside range.

While there is a lot of obvious Divi re-investments going through atm, this large trade really stands out.

I am wondering if an II is building up a position here as there is a clear upside in the 12-18 month timeframe.

This could clearly drive a rerate.

Health Warning: I am using LSE trades and am not overly confident that they are accurate. Not sure where else to see them tbh so pls do check and don't take my work on it.

[affemoose] 11/9/2024 14:06

Amazing, thank you mw. The expectation that full liquidation is likely is encouraging. No illusions there!

I imageine any II's have had the same discussions you've had mw and I appreciate having an PI at the table and sharing. Thank You!

Agree wrt the pricing. I am tempted to put more in here tbh, even at todays prices and factoring an 18 month process for continuation discussions and liquidations it offers a great potential outcome in uncertain times.

Given the II's probably know this info or will do very shortly. I cant see any significant reduction in share price as the maths is too good to sell up now. But you never know! You did very well indeed to get in under 70p recently.

[p1nkfish] 11/9/2024 12:13

Thank you mwj.
Much appreciated.

[mwj1959] 11/9/2024 10:43

Just had a very good and open conversation with John, who is a very experienced IT operator. Main point he stressed was that the process to consult shareholders re JARA's future will proceed as quickly as possible with the expectation that a full liquidation will almost certainly be the final result. This may take up to a year as there is likely to be a queueing system for redemptions in some of the unlisted vehicles i.e. JARA won't be the only trying to exit these quarterly redeeming vehicles.
So there will be a need for patience here, but from a 76p share price an exit at a fairly conservative 85p (8% below current NAV) would give a 12% capital return and at 90p a 18% return. There would, of course, be dividend payments on top of that. Exactly how much that would add is clearly dependent on the speed of the liquidation and what assets were liquidated when. Let's say optimistically another 4p, so slightly less than the annual dividend.
Worth holding onto in my opinion and even perhaps adding to, particularly if the share price were to weaken here. The main risk is that the NAV sees material weakness during the liquidation phase, but even then at 76p it would have to fall a long way (17%) before you started to lose money. And if that was the case I would suggest that you would be losing a lot more money elsewhere in your investment portfolio!

[mwj1959] 10/9/2024 16:58

Speaking to John Scott, the Chairman tomorrow morning...

[affemoose] 10/9/2024 12:40

wow, great work mw. Seriously.

I know you know what you're doing, so thanks for the info and let's see how it goes!

[mwj1959] 10/9/2024 08:47

I've been offered a call with the Chairman, which I'm taking up. Will report back what I can. I'm pressed that the Chairman is prepared to speak to a PI, albeit with the knowledge that I have direct experience of working with ITs, which clearly helps.

[affemoose] 08/9/2024 15:07

Thanks MW.

I did see re: DGI9 - what concerns me though is the timeframe of the asset sales - i did a bit of research, annual reports and presentations etc, and there was something quoting 2027 as a final IT closure, due to asset types, liquidity with partners etc etc.

That's too long for me i'm afraid.

PHP is getting some attention atm though. May be worth scratching at it = see if it passes the sniff test. I'm in already. (I now know why they are focussing new developments on Ireland not UK - it all becomes clear....). Links in the PHP Forum. Not a massive capital growth opp' but good reliable Divi payer and potential for upside in line with property prices

[mwj1959] 06/9/2024 12:07

AM - not sure the size of the PI shareholding relative to II. I suspect the majority of the votes came from IIs for whom issues such as liquidity are far more important. As you say it wasn't straightforward to vote as a PI, but I suspect the majority, particularly those nursing losses, will have voted against continuation.
I emailed the Company Secretary last might with my thoughts, so will be interested to see what response she elicits. She passed my previous email to the Chairman, so I'm optimistic that there will be a response this time too.
On another front you will have seen that DGI9 had a big NAV writedown today, but even with that the NAV remains 100% above the current, weaker, share price.

[affemoose] 06/9/2024 11:32

Now we just need them to get their head around the fact that the game is over and to do what their shareholders want of them.

[affemoose] 06/9/2024 11:10

Thx for sharing. I am surprised by two things here -

the sheer number who voted at all - most PI's are held via nominee accounts so that is very high in my opinion. Clearly a motivated shareholder base!

And the 66% - comprehensive. Very clear mandate.

[mwj1959] 06/9/2024 08:24

My error...amended post

[p1nkfish] 05/9/2024 20:21

Voted for, not against?
66% against continuance?

[mwj1959] 05/9/2024 18:13

So, 66% voted against continuation, albeit just under 50% voted on this (and all the other resolutions). That's pretty conclusive to me, but I would be interested to understand the underlying breakdown between IIs, PIs etc. and also who didn't vote. I'll ask and see if I can get any further information, I suspect not.

[affemoose] 05/9/2024 15:03

In case of interest - there are mutterings about PHP being taken private. DYOR etc etc of course.

[affemoose] 04/9/2024 17:32

Thanks MW. I've updated below. This is as much for my reference as anything.

Gotta say DGI9 is a breathtaking discount! But that also interests me as a possible value play (hope not trap).


JARA - Discount -20.51%, Yield 5.65%, MCap £0.15Bn

HICL - Discount -20.29%, Yield 6.47%, MCap £2.58Bn

INPP - Discount -18.41%, Yield 6.39%, MCap £2.5Bn

BBGI - Discount -9.61%, Yield 5.82%, MCap £1Bn

DGI9 - Discount -74.56%, Yield 7.46% MCap £0.175Bn

GCP - DIscount -25.76%, Yield 8.94% MCap £0.68Bn

[mwj1959] 04/9/2024 16:55

Most of the names you mention are here:
hxxps://quoteddata.com/sector/investment-companies/other-sectors/infrastructure/
hxxps://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/find-compare-investment-companies?sec=INF&sortid=Name&desc=false
I've owned for a while and added to GCP and INPP, neither has been great! Also just starting to buy into DGI9, which is very much a special sit, but one where risk / reward looks favourable at the current share price It's been a major dog for those that have held it for a while.

[affemoose] 04/9/2024 14:47

I'm casting my eyes around at other Infrastructure Trusts, as I do like the sector. My findings are below. This is the start of my research (I think i've got time to find my cash a new home!) - so any suggestions about similar but better - please do drop a note and let me know.

JARA - Discount 20.51%, Yield 5.65%, MCap £0.15Bn

HICL - Discount 20.29%, Yield 6.47%, MCap £2.58Bn

INPP - Discount 18.41%, Yield 6.39%, MCap £2.5Bn

BBGI - Discount 9.61%, Yield 5.82%, MCap £1Bn

So looking at just these 4 - JARA has lowest yield and highest discount (just)

But put them all into a chart next to each other and it is incredibly noticeable how volatile JARA is in comparison to the others. This speaks volumes - too small, low liquidity, large spread, large share price movements relative to NAV.

Pls do let me know if there are other IT's that are aligned to this type of asset ?

[mwj1959] 04/9/2024 14:28

I note that they have yet to publish the 2023 Poll results on their site, so let's hope that they publish the 2024 ones faster!

[mwj1959] 04/9/2024 12:08

I can't see how they will be able to get away with a reconstruction / reorganisation without offering a cash out option to those who don't want to participate (which will be the majority in my opinion). There are no vehicles in the current JPM IT range that would be natural homes for the underlying assets held in JARA, so I can't see any sort of "internal" merger happening on an asset basis. All the Boards are independent, so should not be influenced by what JPM might want to do, but clearly if they could hoover up some cash looking for a home there might be merit in facilitating that. What they could do to enable that to happen (I think)is realise all the assets and then offer shareholders the option of taking the cash or shares in another trust. I believe that this has been done in the past with other trust closures. The problem with JARA is the quarterly redemptions on most of its assets, so as I've said in previous posts this will take some time. However, the eventual discount narrowing and dividend means that we are are being paid to wait.
I seem to have managed to have some sort of contact with the Board, so once I have the details of the vote I'll re-engage with them with my thoughts. Clearly they will be more interested in what the larger II shareholders think, but at the end of the day many of them must have voted not to continue. Having been one of these II investors in the past I would be thinking along the lines of what I've outlined in the first paragraph, with a preference for the cash out option.
The Board have got it badly wrong here. The strategic allocation changes were not nearly enough and reactive not proactive(and they had failed to deliver any NAV growth, albeit I recognise that the macro backdrop has not been helpful) and anyway the main issue was that the trust is too small, so whatever they did most IIs would struggle to want to continue to invest in it from a liquidity perspective, while attracting new investors would be equally challenging.
I'll keep the BB posted on any progress engaging with the company. They need to get a move on.

[p1nkfish] 04/9/2024 10:55

I won't be adding more now.
Let the games begin.