Jpmorgan Global Core Rea... Share Discussion Threads

[mwj1959] 09/1/2025 17:55

£ weakness will be helping NAV in the near term...

[p1nkfish] 08/1/2025 16:14

Totally agree.
An edgy time.

[mwj1959] 08/1/2025 15:44

As predicted JARA proving a safe home in the rising Gilt storm. Gilt declines so far have been relatively modest and orderly. If we get a Truss like disorderly drop that's when we should start to really worry...but also when the bargains would likely appear. That may not happen, of course, and then there are probably plenty of relative bargains out there in the real asset space. For now the best place to be in the FI market (and perhaps markets in general) is in cash or short-dated Gilts with low coupons, both providing decent real returns with limited capital risk.

[p1nkfish] 07/1/2025 14:02

Todays auction for the 30 yr.
I may be wrong but suggests to me BoE may have a problem dropping rates this year.

[orinocor] 07/1/2025 13:35

Very interesting pinkfish. Is this the gilt you are referring to?

Treasury 4.25% 07/12/2055
TR4Q | GB00B06YGN05 | £ 4.25 7 December 2055 85.7255

Is it a good buy in your opinion?

[p1nkfish] 07/1/2025 12:37

Might have started looking at it.
Today the 30yr is at 5.22 pct, highest this century.
These things can run and we will all feel the impact.
New mortgage approvals also look a bit limp.
No hiding place for this bunch, their decisions, they own them, we pay the price.

[p1nkfish] 07/1/2025 12:17

No good choices for the UK.

Gov elected thinking it can do what it wants. Forget it. Every choice has some negative down side and those downsides are now substantial, not easily compensated for by lower rates that will introduce other problems - inflation.

There is a chance of another Truss moment too as markets puke on extra borrowing.
Extra taxes in place of borrowing will crush consumption - along with that element of GDP that is substantial - pushing up debt/GDP.

The market will discipline the idealogues and may force austerity whether they like it or not.

Am expecting unemployment to rise.

Stagflation.

Very much hope I'm wrong.

[affemoose] 07/1/2025 10:35

New Year same old merry-go-round.

I believe (??!!) that we should be getting our first distribution of cash soon - the 'liquid' component. WHen exactl;y 'soon' is I am not sure but I am hopeful for Jan/Feb.

Otherwise, i've created a small nest in the bottom draw and have placed these shares firmly in it - nice and comfy.

All dribs and drabs of cash that come in can be redeployed as and when. Only question I have is 'what to invest in'.

I'm not convinced on the UK atm, i'm not sure that a succession of governments have had the faintest idea how to run a major economy, or cared, and i'm not picking on Labour here - just think 'Truss'. Boris had only contempt for business, Rishi at least tried but had no room to move so invented a load of imaginary income to fund tax cuts and now Reeves thinks taxing jobs will help the economy grow. Yeah.

US is worrying but I am sure the Populist in Chief will cut taxes, borrow and spend so that'll be inflationary but also maybe good for stocks - more crack while the national debt gets even more ridiculous.

Any suggestions?

[p1nkfish] 02/1/2025 12:11

Go ahead to wind down confirmed by vote on the 20th.
Massive majority.

[mwj1959] 20/12/2024 12:18

HL always give you tight deadlines...too tight often. I managed to get my vote in, not that it will move the dial much!

[affemoose] 19/12/2024 14:43

Regarding your email mw... I agree, it does seem to be one of the more stable IT's! DOW's having a moment. Though Cordiant is being stable too. I imagine that UK shares should be less impacted than the US - value will out etc etc.

What what what what.... I just have a look on HL for EGM votes:

I received a note from HL on 16th December about the EGM vote to be held on 20th Dec. (I didn't see it tbh)

I log in today (19th) to vote and they say i've missed the deadline, which was the 17th.

They gave 2 days to vote? Seriously?!! Is this just me?

Not sure it'll make a difference tbh as they probably have the votes to carry but it seems a little rushed and poorly executed.

[mwj1959] 17/12/2024 17:28

NAV up nearly 5% in November at 95.5p, in large part due to strength of US$. Leaves share price at 16% discount at 80p. Wind-up ensuring that this is one of the few stocks in the infrastructure space that is not seeing its share price falling on a daily basis. A fairly safe place for one's money currently...I hope!

[mwj1959] 09/12/2024 17:09

Red over camomile definitely!

[affemoose] 08/12/2024 20:10

lol, thank you mw :-)

There are certainly some chunky trades going through in the last few days, though hard to see details as they are off book.

I shall sip my camomile tea, pull a face as it tastes like lawn clippings, and reach for a bottle of red to calm my nerves !

[mwj1959] 06/12/2024 16:15

AM - don't get too grumpy!
I agree that the timescale is disappointing, but there was always the risk that this was going to be the case. But I also agree that they have been slow in getting to where we are now. I don't know whether they could have gone faster. There may have been regulatory constraints. Liquidity will undoubtedly deteriorate, but that is always the case in these sort of liquidations. And it may create opportunity if the discount were to widen materially. I can probably live with this, given that I will have most of the NAV returned by then. My bigger concern revolves around a material drop off in the NAV, which is an undoubted risk given the nature of the assets. As I've said in an earlier post there is a potential opportunity cost hanging around for the full return, which from an 80p share price is relatively modest. A source of cash undoubtedly if better opportunities materialise elsewhere.

[affemoose] 06/12/2024 15:14

It's been a few days since the circular and I must confess I am still annoyed about the timescale for asset sales. This is not what we understood in the initial information shared with us. I know there were caveats etc but I was rather expecting the delays to come later not before the resolution at the EGM has even been passed!!

If i'd known we'd have to wait up to 24 months, or longer, to see the asset value returned to us (with possible movement up and down of course) I may have voted differently in the discontinuation vote purely from a liquidy perspective.

As this sale process drags on - the liquidity will fall off a cliff, Spreads will become huge and the cost of exit at any stage will be correspondingly higher.

I am Grumpy from London.

[affemoose] 04/12/2024 15:54

Message from Company Secretary - you were, of course, correct mw - the estimated payout rates in the Circular did include the liquid assets in the first payments.
The remaining unpaid at end of CY 25 is indeed what will probably, maybe, be paid by end 2026.

I agree with you re: North of 80p SP

Good luck CWA1!

[cwa1] 03/12/2024 17:18

FWIW I've decided to duck out with a decent profit and hope I can spend the money wisely on any one of a myriad of other tantalsing investments. Risk and reward much more closely aligned now than they were and I HOPE to outperform the dollop I left on the table for the next man. Good fortune to those that stay

[mwj1959] 03/12/2024 17:11

Your 5% yielding share could go down as well as up and I suspect is almost certain to be more volatile than JARA's NAV, but ultimately its all about opportunity cost of remaining in JARA, particularly at the current discount. If it was at 30% it would be a much easier call!
There will still be some dividend income coming in, but not being paid out, and it would be interesting to know what the various private UCITs actually yield. So let's say a further 2-3p accrues over the remaining life of the trust. This would add a little bit more upside to the NAV, albeit some of it would be used to cover expenses etc. Flip side of that is that moves in the underlying assets/currency are ultimately going to be more important variables in determining the final return.
For now I'm probably going to hang on, but if the share price was to move north of 80p I'd definitely be tempted to unload some. Where to put the money is the next challenge. All my holdings are in SIPPs/ISAs, so there is no issue around holding higher yielding assets, whether they be equities, trusts/funds or FI. Depends how much risk one wants to take.

[affemoose] 03/12/2024 16:50

What my last post doesn’t factor in of course is the retained Dividends and any impact on NAV

[affemoose] 03/12/2024 15:21

I've just done some Excel modelling comparing selling all today vs. waiting 2 years

IF I sold all JARA today and bought a 5% yield share elsewhere I would end up after 2 years 3.225% down compared to if i'd waited for the JARA asset returns to finalise in Q4 2026. So Jara is offering a 3.225% premium to selling and buying elsewhere.

this is assuming JARA NAV's hold at 90pence per share. Obviously NAV of assets can go up and down etc etc - and nothing is guaranteed.

BUT... not exactly compelling is it??

IF we had all our cash back by Q4 2025 i'd be looking at a 7.84% premium by holding JARA.

Any suggestions?

[mwj1959] 03/12/2024 10:09

This, I'm afraid, is the problem of holding illiquid assets via open ended vehicles. We're not going to be the only one wanting to get out (we hold less than 5% in all these vehicles), so there is going to be a queue, a fairly long one in some cases. We've seen similar in all the open ended UK property unit trusts where its taken years to finally be able to get out.
Once the EGM has passed and all the redemption requests have been put in the Board should be in a position to provide much more granularity as to when and from which vehicles we should receive payouts. But, even then, it is still likely to be a bit of a moveable feast.
If you sold now at 78p you'd be doing so at a 14% discount. Tempting I guess, particularly given the higher yields and wider discounts available elsewhere.
As I've said before there remains plenty of NAV risk here too, both from an asset and currency perspective.

[mwj1959] 03/12/2024 09:43

I agree that it is not clear! My interpretation is that there will be a meaningful distribution after the third one, which will be the remaining 15%. But let's see what the Company Secretary says...

[affemoose] 03/12/2024 09:36

I am very tired of these ambiguous comms.

end of 2026 is, as you say, far far away. Far too long tbh. This blows all previous estimates cleanly out of the water (was assumed complete by Q4 2025 +/1 1Q). I am interested in exactly what the issue is, what they have found out/discovered etc - why the change now? What asset is proving tough to offload and why?

This changes the landscape somewhat doesn't it......

Sell now and get approx NAV minus 10%

Wait up to 2 years to get NAV, whatever that NAV may look like in 2 years.

I assume there will be heavy selling after capital return at end of Q1 2025 and final flurry of selling Q3 - nobody in their right mind wants to hold a dead asset paying management fees, listing fees etc until end of 2026.

[affemoose] 03/12/2024 09:28

Sorry MW - I should have been clearer in the post above, my values include assumed liquid assets.

But you are right of course - the Q1 values ARE the liquid assets

Original RNS values are below:

Return of capital to Shareholders

Approximate per cent. of NAV

Estimated payment date*

#1

15-20 per cent.

Q1 2025

#2

30-35 per cent.

Q3 2025

#3

25-30 per cent.

Q4 2025


As you can see - 30% + 35% + 20% = 85%. Not 100%! 15% left on the table