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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jpmorgan Asian Investment Trust Plc | JAI | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 401.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401.00 | 401.00 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 02/1/2019 20:43 by loganair Avoid US stocks: Emerging markets is where to put your money in 2019, says Morgan Stanley:Stocks in emerging markets have had a rough year but are tipped for a turnaround, according to Morgan Stanley, which predicts stable growth in those economies in 2019. The investment bank has upgraded emerging market stocks from “underweight&# “We think the bear market is mostly complete for EM (emerging markets),” the bank said in its Global Strategy Outlook report for 2019, adding: “We are taking larger relative positions and adding to EM.” Many investors withdrew from emerging markets throughout 2018 and bought more assets in the US due to a spike in bond yields. That will change, says Morgan Stanley, explaining that emerging markets will outperform developed markets. Within the emerging markets space, Morgan Stanley’s key “overweight Growth across EM has been forecast to slow slightly from 4.8 percent to 4.7 percent in 2019, before inching back up to 4.8 percent in 2020. US growth will moderate from the 2.9 percent estimates to 2.3 percent in 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020, Morgan Stanley said. “A major challenge for US assets next year is that they’re ‘boxed in’ – better-than-expected growth will simply mean more Fed tightening, while weaker-than-expected growth will raise slowdown risks, with limited scope for policy support,” its strategists wrote. “In a major change from the last 10 years, both good news and bad news creates problems for US markets.” |
Posted at 24/3/2018 11:53 by loganair Great expectations by Marina Gerner:So what is the outlook for the BRICS? Stammers says that, ultimately, China and India are looking to become leading global providers of goods and services, so they make things. In contrast, Russia and Brazil are expected to become the global giants in commodities, so they provide the basic raw materials needed to make those things. Paul McNamara, an investment director and lead manager on emerging market bond, currency and hedge fund strategies at GAM, says: ‘China and India matter a lot; the other two are secondary.’ All the BRICS countries face different obstacles. ‘Russia is crippled by dysfunctional institutions and corruption, but Brazil is slightly better off,’ comments McNamara. Redwood says Russia has ‘suffered a setback from the lower oil price, which has hit its export earnings and tax revenues, and from Western actions, which have made some trade and transactions more difficult’. Redwood observes that Brazil has been through a bad political and economic crisis, with recession, high inflation and difficult corruption problems forcing changes of government. He says: ‘There is now some hope of recovery, but there remain deep-seated economic and political problems to resolve fully.’ South Africa too has been suffering from political instability and failing economic policies. ‘Future sustained progress in both Brazil and South Africa will need stable reform-oriented governments that can shake off the problems of the past,’ he adds. India has become the poster child for reform-led recovery in emerging markets, argues James Penny, senior investment manager at TAM Asset Management. ‘With the appointment of prime minster Modi, the country has been put on a path of steep and deep economic and government reform to bring its economy and vast middle-class population to the forefront in the modern market.’ ‘India has scope to become one of the world’s largest economies, but it still has a lot further to go to increase incomes per head.’ Moreover, South Africa, Russia and to some extent Brazil rely on mining and the production of oil and commodities, whereas China and India are more dependent on imports of raw materials. Dominant China: However, Penny says the biggest and, on the global stage, the loudest of the BRICS nations remains China. The country continues to make headlines speculating about whether its economy could suffer a ‘hard landing’ in the face of its highly leveraged corporate sector and a fall in GDP to 6 per cent. But he is keen to put these figures in context: ‘Let’s be clear here,’ he says. ‘The US is struggling to find 4 per cent GDP growth, the UK is looking at 1.5 per cent, and the world is worrying about a Chinese slowdown to 6 per cent GDP growth?’ -China, not India, will dominate future Asian growth: The growth rates of the BRICS economies, with the possible exception of India’s, over the next 10 years is likely to be about half that of the previous decade, according to Smith. India’s and China’s shares of global GDP growth will probably be smaller, but the countries will remain dominant. ‘China will remain the largest [BRICS] economy and should continue to command investors’ attention,’ he says. ‘But if India opens up and reforms, investors should begin to devote more of their attention to the subcontinent.’ That said, he points out that, given the relative size of the two economies today, it would still take more than 30 years for India’s GDP to exceed China’s, even if India achieves all its reform goals and China achieves few of its aims. Ultimately, the strength of the BRICS as an investment proposition is their very diversity, argues Ballard. ‘They are so different that they provide an element of diversification beneficial for any long term investor.’ |
Posted at 06/12/2017 13:13 by loganair Wondering where Mark Mobius would invest $100,000 right now?“I would put one-third of the amount in commodities, most notably platinum and palladium. Palladium has gone up a bit too high, but it is used as a catalytic converter in gasoline engines, and despite electric cars coming in, gasoline engines are the biggest thing in China. One-third into African stock markets particularly places like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Kenya and South Africa. The last one-third would be in Vietnam,” Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group told Bloomberg in an interview. Palladium, which has rallied 45 per cent this year, and platinum are the “most notable” commodities and are attractive given that they’re used in catalytic converters in automobile engines, said Mobius, the executive chairman of Franklin Templeton’s emerging markets group. In Africa, Mobius said he was keen on stocks from South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Zimbabwe. It’s a “great opportunity” to invest in Zimbabwe right now as he expects the market to be opened up and foreign-exchange reserves to rise after the toppling of former president Robert Mugabe. Sharing reasons for his investments into Zimbabwe, the expert said that he expects a stock market correction in the country, which provides a great opportunity. “The reason I said Zimbabwe is that I expect the markets to come down. As you know, it’s all traded in US dollars. The reason it will come down is Zimbabwe is looking to open the markets, they will have some additional foreign reserves, that will allow investors to get out. This will mean that it will be necessary for local investors to be investing in that market, now that they have a tangible asset, so the market will come down, and that will be a great opportunity,” Mark Mobius told the channel. Mobius described Vietnam, where the benchmark VN Index has climbed 41 per cent this year, as “one of the most dynamic” Asian markets. “It’s a small market, a frontier market, but it’s exciting,” he said in a separate interview at the conference. Giving the investors a glimpse into the future of stock markets across the world, Mark Mobius says that emerging markets may be redefined to be called high-growth countries in the next ten years as they are slated to see a lot of demand for consumer durables due to the burgeoning population. Writing specifically about India and China, Mark Mobius explained, “Well, look five or 10 years from now, you’re going to see these consumer markets become bigger than what you see in Europe, in the US. Because look, China and India each have a billion people and their incomes are rising.” |
Posted at 10/11/2017 09:44 by loganair Can emerging markets maintain their momentum? By Graham Smith:When markets surprise, they have a habit of doing so in a big way. This wasn’t supposed to be a great year for emerging markets but, so far, it has been. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index went up by almost a third in US dollar terms over the ten months to the end of October¹. Rising interest rates in the US have the potential to apply a substantial headwind to emerging markets. They make it relatively more attractive for global investors to plant their money in US assets and avoid the additional risks associated with smaller, developing countries. At the same time, higher US rates make it more expensive for nations dependent on foreign loans to service their existing debts and borrow more. As always though, we find ourselves somewhere between two big pulls. On the other end of the rope this time is economic growth. In a developed world where growth of 2% to 3% is considered strong enough to withstand rises in interest rates, the International Monetary Fund’s expectation that emerging markets will continue to grow at a rate of about 5% per annum looks impressive². So where is the growth coming from? For a start, China seems on course to expand by about 7% this year. While that’s a big step down from the 10% growth rate we saw earlier this decade, it’s still enough to belie some extraordinary progress. Online sales of physical goods were 29% higher in the nine months to September compared with the same period in 2016.³ That’s good news for the host of nearby countries that send exports to China. Malaysia, for instance, which sells components used in the latest generation Apple and Samsung smartphones, said last week that exports to China were up 27% year-on-year in September⁴. Then there’s Brazil, in a much weaker position, but with prospects improving. Following a damaging two-year-long recession, a rebound in consumer spending stabilised the economy in the first half of this year ⁵. India, almost the world’s fastest growing large economy in fiscal 2016-17, has slowed as the country absorbs the combined impacts of last year’s cancellation of high value bank notes and the introduction this year of a national goods and services tax. However, these effects are only expected to be transitory, turning positive for the economy longer run according to the World Bank⁶. Since corporate earnings have broadly grown in step with stock market gains this year, emerging markets continue to look attractively valued on a relative basis. At the end of last month, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index traded on 16 times the earnings of the companies it represents, and at a 23% discount to world markets generally. That valuation gap is more or less maintained when using forecast earnings – 13 times for emerging markets versus 17 times for the world⁷. You could, perhaps, explain away these mismatches by the risks that remain. Capital has continued to flow into emerging markets, even as US interest rates have gone up. As in the period 2003 to 2006, emerging markets are enduring rising rates, partly because those rises have coincided with healthy global growth⁸. However, that could still be undone by any factor that sees the US dollar returning to favour, particularly if that factor involves a rise in geopolitical stress or unexpected deterioration in the world growth outlook. That would place renewed pressure particularly on countries with US dollar currency pegs and large debts. Malaysia would be one – its banks are highly dependent on dollar funding⁹. As usual, investors seeking to add growth from emerging markets to their portfolios might do well to spread their risks. Fortunately, emerging markets are a heterogeneous mix, with commodity producers like Russia, Indonesia and South Africa included alongside the increasingly consumer oriented markets of China and India. |
Posted at 16/12/2016 16:58 by loganair Emerging markets in Asia are expected to continue to grow in 2017, offering opportunities for investors amid ongoing global political and market volatility. Despite considerable political uncertainties in the near term in the US, the UK and Europe, as well as potential changes to US trade policy under the coming Trump administration, modest improvement in global economic momentum is expected to continue in the year ahead.Against this global backdrop, opportunities can be identified in riskier, higher yielding asset classes, including Asian equities, which can offer better returns for investors seeking to manage market volatility. Geoff Lewis, Senior Asia Strategist at Manulife Asset Management, said: "Despite the political uncertainty following Brexit and the US Presidential election, we're cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. US fixed investment is expected to pick up and global monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative which will alleviate pressures on the equity markets. There are significant opportunities in Asia for investors. The region hasn't been immune to the challenges facing the global market economy, but it's still, in our opinion, the highest quality emerging market in the world and likely to draw increased interest in 2017." Asia (ex-Japan) is expected to outpace the US, Europe and other emerging markets such as Latin America, with 6% gross domestic product growth forecast for 2017. The latest Manulife Investor Sentiment Index (MISI)* also reveals that Asian investor sentiment for investing in Emerging Asia has jumped from 19 in 2015 to 34 in 2016. 2017: A turning point for Asian Equities: 2017 looks to be a turning point for Asian equities, which will generate opportunities for investors. While Asian stock earnings were soft in recent years, earnings are expected to be revised up in the coming year as a result of an improved economic environment as well as supportive fiscal and monetary policies. More broadly, when compared to 2016, capital flows, exchange rates and bond spreads across most of the region are expected to continue to stabilise in 2017, creating a more positive macro environment for equities. Real interest rates in Asia, which constitute the improving inflation outlook, are increasingly more favourable, indicating a lower vulnerability for Asian stocks to future interest rate increases from the US Federal Reserve. Among the Asian markets, opportunities should become available in Chinese equities, as evident by the improving private investment landscape and the first positive Producer Price Index (PPI) reading in 55 months. North Asian markets, such as China, South Korea and Taiwan, are also expected to perform better in the early part of 2017 due to the perceived positive impact of fiscal stimuluses and increased economic activities in the US. The uncertainty over forthcoming elections in Europe may result in an increased volatility in global markets and Southeast Asia should therefore perform relatively better given that its economies are driven largely by domestic consumption and policies, as was observed in 2016. The MISI survey revealed that 80% of investors indicate that the next six months will be a "neutral to good time" to invest in equities. The top three reasons cited by those investors that favour Asian stocks were signs that market conditions are improving (41.5%), a stable market place (38.5%), and low interest and lending rates that drive the asset class (35.8%). Ronald Chan, Chief Investment Officer of Equities Asia (ex-Japan) at Manulife Asset Management, commented: "We believe 2017 could prove a turning point for Asian equities, particularly if China's gradual economic rebound presents positive knock-on effects for other regional economies. As the economic outlook brightens, valuations are also expected to improve, which could offer meaningful gains for opportunistic investors. At Manulife, we see constructive opportunities in Indonesia, China and India equities." |
Posted at 30/1/2016 11:11 by loganair Assessing Asia’s Growth Prospects by Robert Horrocks, Chief Investment Officer, Matthews Asia:I think it is fair to say that sentiment toward China, and by extension, Asia, is quite polarized. Some investors see opportunity in the weakness of the second half of 2015, others have doubts over the reality of recent growth rates and are anxious over a slower headline rate of growth in China. It is not hard to see why: the prospect of further tightening by U.S. monetary policy; slowing nominal growth; low margins and disappointing earnings growth; a strong dollar and weak local currencies; increasing credit spreads; and poor momentum in the equity markets. And all of this is happening at a time when valuations, whilst not expensive, cannot be regarded as cheap in absolute terms. Now, let me just suggest that we have some data that should allow us to be more confident over Asia’s ability to weather the world’s deflationary forces. First, current accounts in Asia are generally positive. That means Asia's countries are saving more domestically than they invest domestically. And so, they are relatively less reliant on foreign capital. Second, inflation rates are low across much of the region (again Indonesia and India are exceptions, even though they have been successful at moderate price rises). These low inflation rates mean that Asia’s policymakers have a lot of room to offset deflationary impulses by either monetary policy or even government spending or tax cuts. A return to a more inflationary environment would relieve some pressure on margins, earnings and valuations. The question is: are we seeing any signs of such a response? I think we are. First, there are the natural responses of markets: prices adjust. Most obviously, in the face of deflationary U.S. pressures, Asia's currencies have taken the strain. Then, we have the active response of policymakers. In India, we have seen the central bank successfully squeeze down core inflation rates without too severe an impact on industrial profits (perhaps helped by lower commodity prices).In China, we are seeing authorities raise the growth rate of narrow money, continue to press with financial system reforms, and support the property market. Japan is continuing its policy of reflation and structural reform initiatives. So, in the face of a deflationary U.S. policy, the three Asia giants seem to be leaning in the other direction. The degree of offset is perhaps still small. But talking to clients and investors around the region leaves me to believe that there is no great liquidity crisis. In this context, Asia's long-term growth prospects still look good. High savings rates, large manufacturing bases, reformist governments pursuing financial, legal, and corporate reforms mean that Asia should continue to invest and potentially grow at higher rates than the rest of the world. Over time, this investment will continue to raise real wages across the region. Although the headwinds are currently considerable, Asia's businesses seem to be weathering the storm, and so long as we keep our eye on the long term, the investment environment should offer up some good opportunities. |
Posted at 26/12/2015 09:54 by loganair 30th November 2015 - Portfolio analysis by JP Morgan:The trust's net asset value outperformed the benchmark, while the share price underperformed. Stock selection in China and India contributed positively, while stock selection in Korea detracted. Our holding in ikang Healthcare benefited performance as the stock rallied 26% after receiving a USD 1.5 billion acquisition offer from an investor group that includes its main competitor. Our core internet position in Tencent also helped performance given strong mobile gaming and advertising revenue, which are major long-term growth drivers. Financials, such as China Vanke and AIA, performed strongly. Indian auto stocks, such as Martui Suzuki and Tata Motors, rallied on the back of strong domestic car sales in October. Underperformers included Vipshop, Samsung Electronics and ASE. Vipshop fell after missing revenue guidance for the first time in its listed history. Samsung Electronics fell on a weak fourth-quarter outlook given seasonal factors and a continued slowdown in its smartphone segment. |
Posted at 15/12/2015 18:53 by loganair JPMorgan secures backing after arresting Asian trust decline by Daniel Grote:Board of JPMorgan Asian recommends reappointment of managers after investment trust beats benchmark despite suffering losses. The board of JPMorgan Asian (JAI) has recommended the reappointment of the investment trust's managers, after they arrested the decline of the 'problem child' fund. Last year JPMorgan was told it needed to 'deliver significant performance improvement in 2015 in order to justify its reappointment' after years of 'mediocre' results that had left it languishing towards the bottom of the performance tables. In the trust's results for the year to the end of September, chairman James Long said the managers had 'risen to and exceeded' the challenge, and the board would recommend they be reappointed at the trust's 2016 annual general meeting. The trust's net asset value fell 2.9% over the year in a tough 12 months for Asian markets, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index falling 6.3% over that period. 'Although the overall return was negative in a difficult market for Asian equities generally, it is at least pleasing to note that the company's return on net assets represents an outperformance against its benchmark... of 3.4%,' said Long. Since the period covered by the results, Richard Titherington has replaced Ted Pulling as manager of the trust, which analysts at Numis had dubbed a 'problem child' for Numis given the underperformance issues. Sonia Yu has remained as manager, working alongside Titherington. However, Numis said JPMorgan was not yet out of the woods. 'We believe it has been positive to see the board publicly highlighting its review of the manager's performance after a period of relative poor performance, demonstrating the benefits of investment companies having an external board,' they said. 'However, it remains a relatively short period of outperformance and we would expect that the board and investors continue to keep a close eye on performance in advance of the regular, three-yearly continuation vote in 2017.' |
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