Jpmorgan Indian Investment Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 09/7/2008 07:49

Yes, again I agree..
and overnight 'FAr East rallies strongest in 21 days"
eg..
``The whole market has sold off more than is warranted,'' said Hans Kunnen, head of investment market research in Sydney at Colonial First State Global Management, which holds about $128 billion of assets. ``The market has priced in a recession rather than a slowdown, and I think that's overdoing it.''
( Bloomberg)

[carterit] 08/7/2008 12:03

Just to show that the media is all just jumping onto the doom and gloom bandwagon (and yes i know things are bad,but exactly how bad are they,and for how long will it last) - i read in the mail on sunday a couple of weeks ago,that the FTSE has fallen from 6700 to 5350,but that only takes us back to what it was at the end of 2005 ie only a couple of years ago.I did feel like saying,"scuse me - but what about the 5350 level the FTSE was at at the begging of 1998 ie 10.5 years ago".

I think that once the people that control and drive these markets realise that it will be easier to make money driving them up rather than down - then we may start to see them changing direction.

I also read somewhere that some analysts are ssaying house prices will fall or be static over the next 20 years.Come on now.These guys couldn't predict what was staring them in the face only 6 mths ago.In our area in the last down turn (and we happened to buy at the top of the market 1n 1989),prices fell no more than 20%,before stabilising and then picking up.I really don't expect things to be any worse this time than then.

With forward looking markets,they will always turn up ahead of the economy itself.

I just always picture these analysts spreading doom and gloom,while quietly building up nice positions for themselves in readiness for them suddenly declaring - sorry guys,it aint gonna be as bad as we thought afterall.

[hectorp] 08/7/2008 08:23

I don't disagree with that, and good luck
H>

[carterit] 07/7/2008 16:19

I don't know whether we have bottomed yet or not.However with this latest fall in the FTSE i would hope for an approx 50% retracement,even if we have another leg to fall yet.Hope 5350 was the latest bottom,and hope for FTSE to get back to approx 5800-5900.If it does i'm hopeful JII will be back around the 340-360 mark.If it does,i'll be taking most off the table,to see which way we'll then move.

If its down again,then we could possibly see 4800,but if we do,i'll consider that a fantastic opportunity.

[hectorp] 07/7/2008 10:48

We could have a 2 -3 day bear rally around now... it would seriously boost JII, which shows real signs of having bottomed.. I added more last week at 268p.
BUT it may only be a brief rally before yet more downside.

- At some point India will have to detatch from the US Markets effect.... but when.

[hectorp] 03/7/2008 15:26

You're still in the fear side of fear and greed and probably right to be.
Good luck
PS stories about that RUSSIA will be the bst of the emerging markets this coming year. My RUS are doing OK.
H.

[greenpastures] 02/7/2008 21:07

Let' hope you are right. I sold JII in May of last year at 317p and then watched it take off. I could buy back and be considerably in pocket but I don't trust this market at the moment.

Some, quite a few perhaps, emerging market analysts seem to think that those markets will be immune from a severe US slow down. May be they are right, I just have my doubts though.

[hectorp] 02/7/2008 12:38

I doubt that... bad as the markets look they MAY get worse but next year or two we may look back at the fantastic offers we could have piced up mod to late 2008. ?
- Anyhow I picked up some JII this morning at 261p and then up it goes 17p! to my surprise to be honest.
I noted the close spread, and also that the US closed up. I infer that there is pent up interest in JII at these prices.
H>

[greenpastures] 01/7/2008 16:38

My worry about emerging markets Hectorp is if high oil and food prices are hurting us what is it doing to them? We can't rule out social unrest either. I am wondering whether equities have had their day in most places.

[hectorp] 01/7/2008 10:17

This has been a steeper fall by far than 2007 's , which was all about the credit crunch. It looks overdone.
Also RSI 20.. it cant stay there for very long..

[hectorp] 26/6/2008 11:19

Gents
Back to 85-90% cash, so I will not be in a hurry. Maybe 250p or even 200p is a possibility in September. I am however holding a few K JII and also, some ADN,

However! what does a crash or large crunch continuing in the West infer for 'emerging markets' ? Can we now call India and China 'Emergers' or have they moved up through that level?
We KNOW that India has a low trade correlation with the USA. How about the UK and Europe? does it need 'our' strong trade to rally herself?

You can be assured that the UK Market has little idea how to price India Russia Brazil etc, so there SHOULD be marvellous opportunities in coming months.
Good luck to us all , and should very low markets appear, consider it the start of a long term shareholding period.

[chc15] 26/6/2008 10:38

picked up a few as well.
will buy on any more major weakness.

[james111] 24/6/2008 21:32

apetley, Like you I want to be back in, but dont know where or when, I had a few today. will keep adding if it falls, if it steadies will probably go big time.

regards james

[apetley] 24/6/2008 15:50

I'm waiting to get back in as I think the markets are in such a state that it's extremely hard to predict where they will go over the next few months.
I nearly bought back in at 350 but decided to wait which has proved to be a good decision.
If it goes to 250 I'll put the lot in but who knows......

[chc15] 24/6/2008 14:28

any predictions from were we go here, is this a buying opp now, or wait?

[slapdash] 23/6/2008 19:33

not if interest rates go up to combat the inflation.... not very good....

[hectorp] 23/6/2008 12:20

High icflation is very good for the companies which develop local infrastructure eg shopping malls , based on borrowings already made. Inflation will deflate the cost of repayments.

[m4ybe] 20/6/2008 18:43

Isn't it over 10% inflation today in India (2% more than last week) and much more to come since so much of their GDP is food and fuel? How high will they have to raise interest rates to stop that, so that people are better off saving cash than buying cows and stuff making the prices even higher? And what would that do to businesses reliant on borrowing money? Right now I'd go with the cows, I don't think politicians outside Brazil have the courage and inflation will only get worse, running away until they finally seriously do something about it.

[hosede] 20/6/2008 15:44

Whether or not the BRICs economies will soon manage to decouple from the US the stockmarkets are showing no real sign of it at the moment

[enigma2] 20/6/2008 13:05

There's a huge fall in Indian equities over the last couple of days, around 5% each consecutive day. Also the main reason for oil rise is the shortage of refining capacity ( western countries did not invest for years, due to planning laws, lack of capital). China and India are not taking oil directly from western refineries, so shouldn't be causing a shortage in the west. If the Saudi's shipped another million barrels to UK, we wouldn't know where to store that oil, as we have no extra refining capacity, meanwhile, the world's biggest refiner, built in record three years, will soon come online, in Jamnagar, India. And than they will start building the next three refineries. Company is called Reliance Energy. Perfect opportunity to buy JII on these low levels for the long term.

[hectorp] 20/6/2008 08:16

Ouch and down we go.. very tough effect this market is having on JII.

[hectorp] 19/6/2008 13:00

Richardly,
My main focus in Japan is on the trillions of cash of ' the Futon savers' which the people have stored up over the last 15 years and seem inclined now to start to spend. Also Japan's proximity to China. I agree theya re very oil dependent so high crude price must be a negative factor. Watch to see if retail sales there continue on a very high note . Also incidentally Japan has a history of rallying during the US and UK's summer.
regds
H.

[richardly] 19/6/2008 11:04

Hectorp

Japan being entirely dependent on oil (Moneyweek just did an almost completely bullish article on Japan without even mentioning its oil dependency). I just can't see how it's economy and business won't be badly affected long-term. There seem to be huge issues for India also. Oil alone seems good reason to avoid Japan? You seem to be maily focused on oil/gas so fully aware of all this - so I'd be interested in your view. Many thanks.

Richard

[hectorp] 17/6/2008 13:55

Wish I had bought more yesterday, up 17p today.

added ADN Aberdeen Inv Trust.