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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | JPM | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 2,173.87 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,173.87 | 2,173.87 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 20/5/2008 14:23 by grahamite2 I now have US stocks enabled for IG but it's a bit late to do anything with JPM today. |
Posted at 09/11/2002 00:24 by tromso Energi,See my posts 137 to 139 of 3rd July in the "A Shorters Quiz" thread replying to MT Glass about the "derivatives timebomb" concerning JP MorganChase You can do your own research on the US banking derivatives markets here, the nominal amounts are staggering but the risk is more to do with more complicated factors like credit exposure to capital ratios, volatilty etc: The latest report is here: If you go to Table 4 on page 27 of this, you can see that in the 2nd Quarter, JPM's credit exposure to capital ratio was 589.4% (incidentally up from 545% in previous quarter. If it goes on increasing from even these high levels ...) with 25.9 trillion dollars of derivatives. JPM is obviously a much bigger player in this market, with far more exposure compared to its capital relative to the other banks. JPM, Bank of America and Citibank have most of the market between them. Hope they've learned the lessons of systemic risk from LTCM (which had Nobel prize winning economists working for them, but was sunk by the Russian financial crisis). |
Posted at 08/11/2002 13:30 by energyi orchid and Tromso,I agree that the high gearing gives JPM a huge exposure to the risk of having its credit rating downgraded. I ran some figures on Q2 earnings and saw that something like 50% of earnings were coming from derivatives trading. Because JPM must be using the lines of all their potential counterparties near the maximum, a credit downgrade may get those lines cut, and make it virtually impossible for them to trade "normally" anymore. That may be happening now. If you see JPM shedding derivatives trading personnel, then their books are being wound down, and a critical source of earnings has been lost. I imagine Greenspan may be worrying about what to do about JPM on the next credit downgrade. Their derivatives book is too big for anyone to take over, apart from the Fed. Surely, Greenie would like to find a way for them to survive, so the Fed is not left with the mess to clean up. |
Posted at 08/11/2002 07:54 by energyi SLICES OF THE DERIVATIVES PIEexcerpt: "As we delve into the often cryptic world of derivatives, it rapidly becomes apparent that the amounts of dollars of capital effectively controlled through derivatives is absolutely staggering. The notional amount pie in our first graph above is a monstrous $43,922 billion, or almost $44 TRILLION dollars. Rarely at a loss for superlatives, we cannot even think of enough to describe how large these numbers truly are!" ... "JPMorganChase controls 12.6% of the total commercial bank and trust assets in the United States, but a whopping 59.8% of the total commercial bank and trust derivatives market. JPM's implied derivatives leverage on assets ratio is a colossal 43 to 1. ... Long Term Capital Management had $3b in capital allegedly supporting $1,250b of derivatives notional value, an implied leverage ratio of 417 to 1. JPMorganChase, per its own reports filed with the US government, has $42b supporting $26,276b of derivatives notional value. Incredibly, JPM's implied capital leverage on its derivatives is far, far higher than LTCM's at 626 to 1. Isn't it disconcerting to realize JPM management has further leveraged its shareholder equity than even the infamous Long Term Capital Management?" |
Posted at 08/11/2002 07:48 by energyi GETTING WARMER?:...another JPM/Derivatives post: ["Apparently, one sizeable bank (JPM*) active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41bn, a significant part of which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick's contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get the gold it needs to fulfil its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold - potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth - in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980s. You may have a question: How could a bank do something so risky? Eight words give a clue to that: Enron, Savings & Loans, Long-Term Capital Management."] |
Posted at 30/10/2002 12:43 by archer1415 From Jim Willie CB's insider mate "Joe" energyi who may of dropped him right in the smelly stuff if its not true. ..."and the CFO will be doing jailtime by next year...". Would be ironic! Read Jim Willie CB back tracking below. To:jimsioi who wrote (20730) From: Jim Willie CB Monday, Oct 28, 2002 11:51 AM Respond to of 20914 sorry for confusion on JPM: $170B in total nonperf loans I might have misstated this definition the implication to earnings I did say was $50B from required assignment of real money to nonperforming reserves that would be about 30% loan loss reserve the total seemed high to me also esp since the Brazil exposure by JPM is $4-5B I thought I read Enron exposure by JPM was $5B and WorldCom exposure by JPM was similar I intend to followup with my friend Joe I will press him on the amounts, citing Brazil, Enron, WCom even if the story is 30-50% off, this very damaging and enough to bring down the House of Morgan / jim |
Posted at 25/10/2002 08:29 by energyi Ashley,THIS MAY AMUSE you and others... (but be careful about believing this type of scuttlebut): From: Jim Willie CB Thursday, Oct 24, 2002 8:41 PM View Replies (6) | Respond to of 20660 POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE INSIDE NEWS -- $170B JPM FRAUD the same guy Joe in my apartment complex spoke with me again tonight about inside explosive news about a massive accounting fraud by JPMorgan I pressed him for veracity of the source, like where he works Joe said his friend Frank is an old college friend, whom he is in contact with 1-2 times per week he said Frank works in the "same general business as JPMorgan" I asked Citibank? no.. Morgan Stanley? no.. Goldman Sachs? no.. a major bank? no Joe said "no, officially it is a govt business, but they are deeply involved in the mortgage finance business" I asked FannyMae? and he smiled and said "cannot say" while nodding so either Fanny or Freddie, I figure word is flying around the NYC finance houses about this, impossible to contain, with investigations widening weekly Frank tells him the noose is tightening bigtime on JPMorgan and the CFO will be doing jailtime by next year... the US Attorney General and NY Atty Genl are each well along in the investigation of $170 billion in improperly reported Q3 interest payments on three big loans... WorldCom, Argentina, Russia they all went bad, but JPM reported them as "performing loans" with fraudulent intent... the AG's are busy now "closing the dozen doors" that will demonstrate fraud and criminal intent... they want to be certain that JPM did not simply transfer the loans over to the London office or some thin offshore subsidiary... they are making progress eliminating these possibilities... the critical first criminal step was not listing these loans as "non-performing" the misstatement makes WorldCom's $4B in improper statement look, well, pretty effing tiny... I asked about the impact to earnings, and Joe told me he heard around $60-70 billion in losses I asked about why this is not out in the news, in the open... Joe said AG's must shut the doors, tighten the nose, be certain of the criminal actions I asked about timing... Joe was told by Frank at FannyMae? that the prosecution steps begin in the first December week... I asked "around Pearl Harbor Day?"... he laughed, saying JPM is going to jail and this will blow wide open, that JPM is dead in the water... Frank claims actual revelation to the public and news media will take place around Christmas or immediately afterwards I asked how we can observe definitive confirming signals from afar... Joe said "mass resignations, which have begun, but which will pick up in a big way" Joe works in an international industrial pump/value company, and fully trusts his friend Frank in NYCity... back in July, I mentioned this Frank as confirming almost daily shipments by truck of Federal Reserve Gold out of the NYCity site, for the purpose of satisfying JPMorgan gold sales so there you have it, MASSIVE $170B FRAUD CONCEALING $60B IN LOSSES, which will break within 75 days!!! we will see Joe said "100% certain this is unfolding, going to be death for JPMorgan, absolute death, with numerous indictments coming down, starting with that CFO" too big to fail? how about too big to bail? certainly too big to protect from prosecution Elliot Spitzer will dog them for sure dunno about AttyGenl Ashcroft gold should get a little lift by Christmas, eh and we havent touched on Brazil yet / jim :SOURCE: |
Posted at 09/10/2002 20:14 by m.t.glass Moody's Investors Service said it has cut the long-term 'Aa3' rating of JP Morgan Chase & Co debt to 'A1' to reflect concerns about the outlook for the bank's earnings.In a statement, Moody's cited "concerns regarding the medium-term outlook for JPM Chase's business performance, in the context of longer-term concerns about the prospects for the successful execution of JPM Chase's investment banking and capital markets strategies". The bank's has lagged its similarly-rated peers through this cycle, said the agency. Moody's is now concerned that the bank's recent problems could interfere with its effort to execute its capital market strategy, which has so far met with only partial success. "The execution challenges are heightened by the downturn in the primary and secondary capital markets. The bank may need to cut costs and reduce investment further in order to maintain acceptable profitability in the short run," said the agency. However, in JPM Chase's case, such cuts could eliminate revenue-generating capacity when markets eventually recover, it said. JP Morgan Chase last month issued a severe profit warning for the third quarter which it attributed to spiralling commercial credit costs and a very poor trading quarter. Moody's agreed that the bank's core profitability has been modest compared to its peers, partly because of low yields on some of its commercial loans. Today's rating downgrade incorporates possible losses on Enron-related surety bonds and letters of credit. Its stable outlook assumes that the bank will defend itself against secondary exposures stemming from further probes of its relationship with Enron and WorldCom. The bank's liquidity remains strong and risk weighted capital ratios are "good". "Moody's assumes that management will remain committed to its policy of maintaining strong capital ratios as it determines future dividend policy," said the statement. At 2.24 pm, JP Morgan shares were trading down 70 cents, or 4.3%, at $15.88. |
Posted at 05/10/2002 09:51 by magic Nice article from FT, I wonder how much a cut in div is already factored into the price? -------------------- JP Morgan Chase to eliminate more bankers By Gary Silverman in New York Published: October 5 2002 0:35 | Last Updated: October 5 2002 0:35 JP Morgan Chase is moving to cut approximately 4,000 more jobs in its wholesale banking operations as it responds to rising credit losses and falling trading revenues. The cuts were signalled earlier this month when JP Morgan warned that its third-quarter earnings would be lower than Wall Street analysts had predicted. At that time, William Harrison, chairman and chief executive of JP Morgan, said the company would have to make further lay-offs, but he did not specify how many. The earnings warning shocked investors already concerned about JP Morgan's involvement in the collapse of Enron and its susceptibility to the rising tide of problem corporate loans. JP Morgan shares on Friday fell $1.08, or 6 per cent, to $16.54, bringing their fall for the year to 54 per cent. JP Morgan's market value stood at less than $33bn, or roughly what Chase Manhattan paid for JP Morgan in late 2000 to create the current company. The company said on September 17 that its credit losses would reach $1.4bn in the third quarter, up from $302m in the previous quarter, reflecting "adverse developments" at telecommunications and cable companies. It also said its trading revenues had fallen sharply. Since then, several investment banks have reported earnings for the quarter ending in August and none seems to have experienced a decline on the JP Morgan scale. The setbacks have stirred speculation about whether Mr Harrison will be able to hang on to his job and whether his strategic vision for the company has been correct. He created a company that would be able to provide complex solutions - including elaborate financings - for big groups. However, his efforts have been hampered by increasing credit problems at blue-chip companies and growing doubts about structured finance following Enron's failure. The job cuts will be concentrated in the bank's wholesale operations but there will also be cuts in asset management. The corporate and investment banking operations of JP Morgan employed 22,000 people at the start of the year; that number has declined since then. Some operations in the wholesale bank will be cut 20 to 25 per cent and the total number of lay-offs could wind up being even more than 4,000. The company is scheduled to report earnings on October 16. At the time of its earnings warning, JP Morgan said it expected to maintain the level of its dividend "provided that capital ratios remain strong and earnings prospects exceed the current dividend". However, some analysts on Wall Street say they doubt JP Morgan will be able to maintain its dividend, particularly given the uncertain conditions in the capital markets. |
Posted at 26/7/2002 22:09 by blackstone extract from the latest report by Adam HamiltonThe derivatives world is a funny place. Most of the big derivatives deals are private over-the-counter transactions that are not exchange traded like the common options we buy and sell on individual stocks. These OTC contracts are made between a mega-bank like JPM and an individual company that either seeks to offload its risk by hedging or assume additional risk by speculating. Because the OTC contracts are private, customized, and unregulated, the reputation and honor of the bank writing the contract are of paramount importance. Companies come to JPM to hedge their risks through private derivatives contracts because the bank has an incredibly sterling reputation going back over a century. The House of Morgan name has been above reproach for a long time due to the hard work of JPM's employees over many decades. Unfortunately though, reputation is a fragile thing. Even a single major headline breach of trust can quickly destroy the fruits of decades of hard work in building a name and brand. As Arthur Andersen proved, decades of goodwill can be obliterated overnight by one high-profile fraudulent action in a small portion of an entire firm. The elite Big Five public accounting firm was considered blue chip and invincible a few years ago. Today it is thrashing in grisly death throes like an Ebola Zaire victim. If JPM is tarred and feathered and its derivatives clients lose confidence in its integrity, it too can certainly see decades of goodwill vaporize as if trapped at ground zero of a thermonuclear explosion. JPM's unprecedented $23.5t inverted derivatives pyramid is hyper-leveraged and carefully built upon the irreplaceable trust of every entity that signs derivatives contracts with it. With the US Congress now investigating JPM for explicitly designing financial smoke-and-mirrors for corporate crooks like the Enron rogues trying to materially mislead and defraud their shareholders, I can't help but suspect that some of the companies on the other side of those $23.5t notional value derivatives contracts may grow a little nervous. After all, companies pay mega-bucks to offload their risk to JPM via OTC derivatives contracts. These companies have to believe, have to have complete faith and confidence, that no matter what happens JPM will be able to make good on its side of the contracts. This is called "counterparty risk" in the derivatives world. A private OTC derivatives contract made with a counterparty that doesn't have the financial strength to back the contract even in the worst-case scenario is worthless. In addition, a private OTC derivatives contract made with a counterparty that doesn't have the honor to be trusted in even the worst-case scenario is worthless. Trust and confidence is everything in the private OTC derivatives world! |
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