Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 20/1/2020 17:24

Yes reason I bought around £4 was that

[pottsypotts] 20/1/2020 17:23

Bit of activity in this sector

[buffettjnr] 31/12/2019 09:13

Nice to see the net debt level coming down this morning by £10.6m. I look forward to a few muppets on this forum having to apologise in February 2020.

[nw99] 23/12/2019 12:11

Starting to gain momentum

[f15jcm] 23/12/2019 11:41

Can't imagine why, it isn't even cheap if it meets those expectations. Fully expecting it to go the way of other over leveraged public companies, TCO, IRV et al.

[nw99] 22/12/2019 20:08

Hence the re rating coming

[f15jcm] 22/12/2019 18:34

If they hit those numbers it will be the first time they have met consensus in a very long time.

[nw99] 17/12/2019 22:00

Brokers estimate that this year will see revenues improve £48m to £1.34bn, with pre-tax profits of £31m against £21.6m last time. That should see earnings coming out at 32p and covering an unchanged 20.5p dividend per share.The coming year could see £1.38bn revenue and £43.5m pre-tax, worth nearly 42p in earnings per share, with a 20.9p dividend.Trading at around the 450p level these shares look to be an excellent future performer. My end-2020 target price is very modest at 530p.

[f15jcm] 12/12/2019 17:45

Institutional short positions have increased this week.
hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0005790059/

[nw99] 29/11/2019 13:22

Yes cutting back the debt very bullish target 490p

[f15jcm] 29/11/2019 12:37

Good post Monty, the bit about the options was news to me. The purchase is a vote of confidence, no question. Like you say though, all about delivery now and at one the first hurdles, he's fallen short of analyst expectations.

[f15jcm] 29/11/2019 12:33

They are increasing their short position, not unwinding it. Silence is probably best given you've just been caught out telling a massive porkie!

[montynj] 29/11/2019 12:33

It's not entirely surprising, at least for those shareholders who've read boring disclosure documents (like myself). I had expected this kind of insider purchase following the publication of a 22 August 2019 document that Menzies released ahead of an extraordinary general meeting. What I am referring to is the document that summarised the incentivisation programme for key management members, which is the sort of publication that no one ever reads the small print of. The 47-page, legalese document proposed to grant stock options for 850,000 Menzies shares to Philipp Joeinig, but only on the condition that he personally purchased a matching 850,000 Menzies shares (or more) using his personal funds. This agreement between the Executive Chairman and the company was an unusual one, but it made economic sense for both parties. Joeinig can make many millions of pounds off his post as Executive Chairman, purely on the back of stock options. However, he also needs to invest significant amounts of his own money and then deliver the goods for all shareholders. With his purchase, he has now made more than the required minimum investment. Next stop – delivering the goods!

[buffettjnr] 29/11/2019 12:30

Where will GLG find 1.3m shares? That’s a concern. If it move 10% on 150k shares, I’d love to see an AO like short squeeze.

I’ll remain silent on this until we see the next chapter....

[f15jcm] 29/11/2019 12:20

I wouldn't call 2.8x low as 3x is typically the covenant ratio for public companies, beyond which lenders start flexing their muscles. Also, they aren't going to achieve forecasted EBITDA as they are only trading 'broadly in line with estimates' i.e. up to 10% below estimates.

Someone always suggests a bid is coming when a stock gets beaten up, much more often than not, it doesn't happen. I note that one of Menzies' previous acquisitions attracted the attention of the CMA. Any proposed consolidation of larger players may well get blocked on competition grounds.

[1gw] 29/11/2019 12:16

montynj - It's the Executive Chairman, not the CFO, that bought the 1.2m shares. Both spent a fair bit of time at Swissport. The share purchase is not new news though as it was announced on 24th September.

I've been invested in MNZS off and on since 1997 I think, and posting on it here since 2014 - so have followed the story closely. There's never been much doubt, among the bulls, about the potential of the company (or the potential for the aviation business to be bought at a big premium given other deals in the sector) and it's disappointing that they haven't been able to execute better (or have been hit by headwinds) following the split of the business. Their latest TU, following on from the 1st October "multiple contract wins" RNS did not appear particularly upbeat, beyond expressing hope for better things in 2020, and if anything was a warning not to expect them to beat significantly on 2019.

But it's relatively low volume today and there has been a lot more volume going through on the first 4 days of the week, so perhaps we've just cleared an overhang of available shares and it's now moving up more significantly given the continued buying.

[montynj] 29/11/2019 12:06

Menzies has a relatively low net debt of GBP 215m, equivalent to 2.8 times estimated 2019 EBITDA. The company is a low-risk acquisition target inasmuch it generates 80% of its business from passenger ground handling, which is more stable than cargo ground handling

[f15jcm] 29/11/2019 12:05

* it had increased from £199.6m at December 2018

I wouldn't imagine GRG will be concerned. The stock isn't even cheap before you take the debt into consideration.

[f15jcm] 29/11/2019 11:59

Please can you explain how you expect net debt to be reduced to £100m by Feb 2020? The figure reported in the interim results was ~£215m on a non-IFRS16 basis (much higher with IFRS16).

[buffettjnr] 29/11/2019 11:49

GLG has 1.3m shares short position. For their sake, I hope they close it...unless they are concerned about £100m net debt (in Feb 2020).

[buffettjnr] 29/11/2019 11:47

But the debt...lols

[montynj] 29/11/2019 11:28

Read my recent posts..plus, the company has had a former Swissport (!) executive join its board as CFO. The new CFO invested a stunning GBP 4.7m of his money to buy Menzies shares at a price of GBp 390. This very substantial insider transaction is probably all you need to know.

[1gw] 29/11/2019 11:13

Heck of a chart. Is something going on besides reaction to the TU?