John Lewis Of Hungerford Share Discussion Threads

[pedrojack] 18/6/2007 16:49

I am looking to buy now CR...

[cockneyrebel] 18/6/2007 15:11

Moving up today, and about time after those excellent results imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/6/2007 13:42

I see mm's are paying well over bid for well over NMS.

A little black sheep here that's going to really wake he market up at some point imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 04/6/2007 12:11

Market sleeping here imo. Seen a few large buys since the result but little to no sells

0.4p loss in H1, a 0.15p improvement over H1 last year. If they had the same improvement in H2 they will do 0.37p eps in H2 and 0.33p eps for the year - a PE of 8.4 for the current year.

And they say this:

"Importantly, other significant changes within the Company have yet to be reflected in the financial numbers. These include the recent introduction of a new kitchen range offered in both solid oak and walnut, much wider accessory offerings (for example granite and stone worktops) and changes in production processes and customer service.

That could add even more to H2 perhaps.

All in all, if you look to next years earnings these may be on a PE of 5 or less?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 30/5/2007 18:02

Jaguarboy - Rosby and Hepworth have only been in charge for 6 months. They are now hitting record sales in the last two halves.

They made 0.23p nearly in H2 last year. In H1 sales grew 32%, eps losses fell by 70%. If H1 has improved by 32% there could be a corresponding increase to H2. In H2 last year, a 2% increase in sales boosted eps by 50% in H2.


When you examine it properly you can see it it taking little sales increases to have major effects on the eps.

Now I wouldn't expect 30% sales increase in H2 afther a strong H2 last year but 10% doesn't seem too ambitious imo. They said recent orders in H2 had been weaker than expected - what were they expecting tho, a continuation of the 30% year on year sales growth? if so sales could still be very strong. They also said this:


"Importantly, other significant changes within the Company have yet to be reflected in the financial numbers. These include the recent introduction of a new kitchen range offered in both solid oak and walnut, much wider accessory offerings (for example granite and stone worktops) and changes in production processes and customer service.

With the above in place, the Company is now competitively positioned to deliver attractive new products in terms of both offering and price.>/i>

and this:

"Whilst we remain cautious as to the outcome for the full year, we do expect a continuation of the improving performance over the remainder of the financial year.


An improvement over the remaining part of the year suggests better than the 0.22p eps they did in H2 last year, suggsting better than 0.2p eps for the year, but we know not by how much better.

Just 0.2p eps this year after a 0.03p loss last year would be a 0.23p improvement over last year - might not sound a lot but that's a huge move for a co the size of JLH. 0.4p eps might easily be on the cards for next year then, possibly a fair bit more.


To be honest, by the time it's glaringly obvious that JLH are doing really well the shares will be unbuyable at any reasonable price imo, as they are so illiquid.

Nothing is guaranteed but with Rosby and Hepworth now in charge it's worth backing imo.

CR

[jaguarboy] 30/5/2007 14:43

I fail to get excited about the latest figures or the previous ones of the past 5 years!

Year Revenue Pre-tax profit
2002 3.44m Loss of £80,000
2003 4.12m Profit of £38,000
2004 3.61m Profit of £20,000
2005 4.35m Loss of £20,000
2006 3.99m Profit of £60,000

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2007 11:17

New thread created - replied there Pedro.



CR

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2007 11:16

Bit of a markdown today, obviously the MM's picked up a seller after the big rise and the illiquidity exaccerbaters moves in the price too.

No flood of selling tho, in fact a 100K buy, a tiny sell and a 300K I moved across from my wife's pension to portfolio today.

CR

[shanklin] 29/5/2007 08:24

CR

Agreed, it seems quite bizarre to sell on these results.

Cheers, Martin

[pedrojack] 29/5/2007 08:22

Interesting price movement this morning CR?...

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2007 08:12

I expect these will bounce lare when the shrewder types read the results properly and see the underlying performance. Recon there was either a small sell that hit them or the MM's marked down because they saw the recent rise and thought punters might expect more - could be a terrific buying opportunity I suspect.

If they can turn in 0.35p eps this year then I reckon there's every chance of 0.5p or better next year - which would make the fwd PE less than 5.

Illiquid tho - you can rarely get many of these unless the MM's have some stock about.

CR

[pedrojack] 29/5/2007 07:57

At first glance the results look quite good with the turn around starting to happen...I do not hold...

[cockneyrebel] 29/5/2007 07:44

Good results imo Lord C.

As I said above, I'd have been satisfied with a 0.1p loss per share in the traditionally weaker H1 but they have beaten that significantly. Bearing in mind they masde 0.22p+ last year in H2 a similar increase in H2 would see around 0.4p or better in H2 and 0.35p eps for the year.

Kitchen sales up 50% over last year, more than reversing the decline.

Cashflow good again too.

The new Artisan Natural range has only just kicked in too and we know these have been well received so that could bost H2 further. They say H2 has started weaker than expected but we don't know what they expected with H2 after H1 was up 50%.

Looks well on the road to consistent profitability under Rosby imo.

Will post back later - might have a chat with them if I can.

H1 sales actuall recovered to 2005's record level H1 and the losses were just 0.4p on that volume compared to 0.15p in 2005 so that's a big margin improvement too.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/5/2007 12:42

Got the new mini brochure for the new 'Artisan Natural' range today. I have to say these kitchen look stunning in the brochure - especially the one in Walnut. Drawer detail stunning too - all dovetailed ad compartmented in the same wood and badged inside the drawers. Lovely matching tables too in the same wood tops.

Definitely looked a class above the previous ranges. They are on the website too (brochure pictures look better imo):




Click the blue "Showroom Refurbishment" box at the bottom.

CR

[pedrojack] 08/5/2007 21:23

Thanks CR...

[cockneyrebel] 08/5/2007 20:00

Hi Pedro.

Results have been around the 10th in the past, or a bit later.

I really couldn't tell you what to do. I bought loads over the past few months on the basis that if the results are anything better than flat on last year then these are probably going up and the chance to buy then becomes impossible, these are very illiquid. On the other hand it's safer to wait. Perhaps you should split your purchase with a few before the results and the rest after - that way you dilute your risk and reward.

It's really hard to give advice like that, sorry.

CR

[pedrojack] 08/5/2007 18:57

Cheers CR and Lord C...As you both mentioned about Rosby may dump the bad news first do you think I should buy before the results or after...I currently do not hold...This is the reply I got from Richard Worthington, the FD...Top bloke for replying to small shareholders' emails...


"Thank you for your email. The Interim Statement for John Lewis of Hungerford plc for the 6 months to 28 February 2007 will be available before the end of May 2007.

Sincerely
Richard Worthington"

[cockneyrebel] 08/5/2007 18:22

PedroJack.

I would like to see an improvement on H1 last year. If they do -0.1p eps in H1 they are on for over 0.3p to 0.4p eps in H2 imo, that would be a PE of 9 to 11, H2 has historically been the bigger half by about 30% on sales.

New plain wood doors and worktops started being sold at the end of H1 and I expect them to make a good contribution to H2 (prior to this they only sold one type of worktop and a limited range of painted doors.

The furniture side is the bit that could really shine - sales were up 50% or so last year and this looks like an area where they have less competitive pressure.

Like Lord C says, the options were enouraging - you can't expect much in the way of director buys as there is hardly any free-float.

The end game here is Rosby and Hepworth getting this co in shape to sell off so Lewis can retire with cash in the bank imo - when Lewis holds 60% I can't see him letting anybody take over the helm without being very sure they can make a better job of making a profit than he could do.

Personally I'd be happy if H1 matched H1 last year because H2 looks like it has the ability to be much greater than H2 last year where they made 0.22p eps.

Agree that Rosby might do a bit of a dump the bad stuff in H1 then move on from there but there's so much potential for this to become another mini MFI that I can pretty much take whatever H1 throws at me - I'm in these for 2 years minimum.

CR

[lord c.] 08/5/2007 09:08

Lord C.>>>PedroJack,


If Jon Rosby acts like every other incoming MD he will throw as much bad news into his first, first half as possible. He must be judged on the finals when his real input will become apparent. The new (very impresive) product lines will have been properly exposed by then and his sales and marketing director should be proving her worth or otherwise.

New guys usually spend shedloads of money - let's hope the JLH board have checked any mad impulses.

I was really pleased by the 3p options - he has every incentive to get that share price up.

Staff morale seems to be sky high in the shops I have visited.

I still rate this share very highly and see them as a quality long term buy that should be purchased up to 3p before the interims are announced. What we really need is Chairman John Lewis to place part of his holding - then they will really motor.

LC.

[pedrojack] 07/5/2007 21:33

CR...What do you reckon the results will be like?

[cockneyrebel] 03/5/2007 14:11

Results due next week I think, May 10 is the normal date - were a bit early last year.

Reckon these only need to lose 0.1p in H1 to be on a PE of less than 10 with the weighting to H2.

MM's trying to find a bit of stock today with a shake imo - no sells but a mark down at the open - the usual trick here imo.

CR