Jkx Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[dragonboy] 14/8/2018 13:57

I think punters are waiting for 30%+ rise before they buy :). LOL

[s1zematters] 14/8/2018 13:44

The mail said it could prompt a takeover bid here! Big Cheese would have to pay well over 50P to incumbent holders many who paid 100p plus.. Good each way bet here at this price.

[s1zematters] 14/8/2018 13:42

I was thinking that B1, but because i am very conservative I only target 36-40p short term, rather than the true potential 100p plus that the assets could easily warrant in time.

[s1zematters] 14/8/2018 13:21

Hello b1, looks v interesting but MM dab hand of using spread to control it...

[s1zematters] 14/8/2018 12:44

Takeover rumour in the mail, maybe some truth but if this big cheese guy is buying with his cash for some reason.
Looks interesting.
small long could pop up.

[jaka] 13/8/2018 22:10

The London-listed oil company JKX Oil & Gas is scrambling to find out why a Ukrainian MP has quietly become its second largest shareholder in a deal that has sparked speculation of a potential takeover by oligarchs. Vitaliy Khomutynnik, one of Ukraine's richest men, has clinched a 20 per cent stake in JKX - which has assets in Ukraine and Russia - via an investment fund called Cascade. He bought the stake from Proxima, a Russian fund that in 2016 succeeded in booting out the entire JKX board. - Mail on Sunday

[nicky21] 14/6/2018 13:56

copl

just posted



Nigerian government set to approve several OML field licenses triggered by much improved oil price

[nicky21] 07/6/2018 14:29

a good post on COPL..

Edgein7 Jun '18 - 09:29 - 2920 of 2921
0 0 0
Bounty Hunter,

Its all about timing. OIL was one of my best ever, it went from the teens in the Brenda days to over £4.00 in the post-Huntington era (I sold long before that). Art was exceptional at finding the stuff, especially appraisal drilling and OIL were killed off by the debt and the unprecedented fall in the oil price, that killed off AFR and many others too CAZA et al. With COPL its all about timing again. The market has a short memory and if ART delivers even a fraction of that plan in the presentation then this is going to be one of the highest baggers in the oil sector in a long time. If the deal goes through and they line up funding they're expected to produce from the modified rig, so no 3-4 year wait as normally associated with offshore. Plan is 6000bopd in the early stages and within about 3-5 years and 29 wells later produce 60,000bopd at peak. The market rightly or wrongly expects that this will not happen hence £8m market cap. If on the other hand they get approval from the Nigerians for the Essar deal, finance the well and get the expected results this is Oilexco mark II. The early days of OIL were exceptional and that's why I took some here. One of the smallest holdings in my porty so its not without risk as you point out, but upside if Art pulls it off is going to be legendary. First target 90mmbbls, combined appraisal targets approx 250mmbbls.

Regards,
Ed.

[nicky21] 05/6/2018 17:40

Guys you really need to check out COPL currently to buy 0.55p.

A potential to be a multi baggar.It tried its luck in Liberia but failed to find any Oil.It is now concentrating in Nigeria.There it has partnered with Shoreline a Nigerian company.
Copl and Shoreline have ventured together and created a company called Shorecan which is owned 50/50 by both.They have bidded for a Licence and are awaiting Approval and Transfer of Asset.
The asset is OPL 226.Five wells have been drilled on OPL 226 by previous operators.A well drilled in 2001 encountered Oil.
When all approvals are sorted then it will drill an appraisal well on the discovery in 2001.Financing for the drilling is meant to be secured for rumours are true.

What is holding the share price back presently is NNPC approval.

$60m was spent on this asset by the previous operator.the potential for Copl is huge.
I know most of you gonna say its another Nigerian scam.IMO i think it is not.Presently we have 2 Nigerian companies listed on the LSE they are Egland Oil and Gas (market cap £250m) and Seplat Petroleum (market cap £850m)

Copl management wants it to be a mid tier oil and gas company ie £250m-£500m

All to play for.Current market cap for Copl is just under £10m.I think its one of the best plays on the LSE.

[jaka] 19/5/2018 18:47

Economic truthGaza does not go too far: how much Ukraine can produce in 2020In the gas sector, stagnation prevails, but there is hope for the better. The state has adopted a number of legislative changes that will break the negative trend.THURSDAY, MAY 17, 2018, 17:15ALEXANDER MARTYNENKOHead of the Financial Sector Analysis Division of the non-banking corporations ICUFrom the first four months of 2018, natural gas production in Ukraine declined by 1% year-on-year to 6.77 billion cubic meters. According to Ukrtransgaz.The negative influence of regulation of the industry is given.The jumps in fees for the use of subsoil, the bureaucracy and the difficulties of the licensing system frightened investment in capital-intensive production.It is becoming increasingly difficult to contain the natural decline of extraction in Ukrainian deposits, most of which have a long lifetime.In recent months, state regulation of the oil and gas industry has undergone dramatic positive changes, which could revive the business in 2018.According to the Association of Ukrainian Gas Producers, the volume of drilling may increase by 35%. In general, the association expects an increase in gas production by 7% to almost 22 billion cubic meters in 2018. The forecast is very optimistic, but it is realistic.Our expectations are more cautious: gas production in 2018 may increase by 4-6% to 21.3-21.7 billion cubic meters. If deregulation becomes a steady trend, growth volumes can significantly accelerate and reach 25-26 billion cubic meters in 2020 year. Change the rules of the gameOver the last four to five months, important legislative changes have been made to the industry. First of all, in December 2017, rent rates for gas extraction were reduced from 29% to 12% for wells up to 5,000 m deep and from 14% to 6% for wells with a depth of more than 5,000 m. The new rates were fixed until 2023 .Importance is also decentralization of rent. From 2018, 5% of the gas companies paid by the companies will be leased to local budgets. This will motivate the local authorities to more reluctantly treat gas companies with permits - including land allocation.Also during the first quarter of 2018, the Cabinet of Ministers and the Verkhovna Rada adopted a series of acts that significantly simplified the rules for the development of oil and gas fields, facilitated access to sites and reduced the number of permits.All these changes have increased the attractiveness of the oil and gas industry for investment. This will not only help increase volumes of mining operations, but will also contribute to the arrival of large industry players in Ukraine with new technologies and best practices.However, investors, before starting to invest a lot of money in the sector, want to see the effectiveness of these changes. For this state, it is necessary to continue deregulation, to establish a transparent system of auctions during the issuance of licenses, to modernize the laws and the Code of the Subsoil in accordance with European norms.Problems of state-owned companiesPublic companies continue to play a decisive role in gas extraction.Changes in the regulation of domestic gas prices allowed Naftogaz to increase its financing of extraction. However, due to the poor efficiency of public administration, complex relationships with regulators and local councils, state-owned companies are increasing production with great difficulty.The share of the Naftogaz production subsidiary of Ukrgazvydobuvannya, UHV, exceeds 73% of the total volume of gas extraction in Ukraine. In 2018, UHV plans to increase the volume of gas production by 600 million cubic meters or by 3% to 15.9 billion cubic meters.The company is guided by the ambitious "Program 20/20", according to which extraction should grow by 4.7 billion cubic meters to 20 billion cubic meters in 2020. However, the success of this goal is more and more questionable: the company does not have time to carry out a drilling plan.Observers note the too slow involvement of external contractors, in particular, foreign service companies with modern drilling equipment.At the beginning of 2018, UHV announced a 3% reduction in the production plan, accusing the Poltava Regional Council of not wanting to issue special permits to use subsoil.Nevertheless, due to the reform of gas prices and the improvement of the financial state of Naftogaz, UHV has far more opportunities for investing in production. In 2018, it is planned to spend about $ 1 billion compared with $ 200-250 million in 2015-2016.In the second largest gas producer, Ukrnafta, due to a lack of exploration and drilling investments, production volumes continue to decline, despite rising oil prices in 2017. At that time, the drop in production, by 14.8%, almost coincided with a natural decline of 15%, indicating insufficient drilling volumes.Conciliation barriers faced by Ukrnafta became more painful for it than for UHF. Ukrnafta suffered significant losses due to the blocking of the process of granting special permits on six productive fields.The company believes it is possible to increase investment in production from 0.6 billion UAH to 3.1 billion UAH, provided the high oil prices in 2018.However, a chronic lack of investment in mining can complicate even the stabilization of its volumes. In 2018, the average daily volume of gas extraction by the company is decreasing, the April decline is 6% since the beginning of 2018.The contribution of private companiesWhile the public sector is steadily increasing production, the role of the private sector is increasing. In 2017 the share of the private segment in the total gas production was only 20%, but the 2015-2017 years, production increased by 6% compared to 2% production growth in the public sector.Private players can provide most of the extra cubic meters in 2018. If the key private companies will be able to realize their ambitious plans, their share in total production could increase to 25-30% in 2020, and production - increase by 45-70% for annual 6,3-7 billion cubic meters.The largest private player "DTEK Naftogaz" plans to increase gas production from the current 1.65 billion cubic meters to 3 billion cubic meters per year by 2020. In 2017, the company drilled one well, commenced drilling the second, reconstructed Machuhsku installation of gas, intensified repair wells.The company plans to commission three to four wells annually, each of which can give 50-100 million cubic meters of gas in the first year of operation.The second-largest privately held company, Burisma Holdings, drilled 16 wells in 2017. However, in 2017, the production dropped by 11% to 0.9 billion cubic meters, although the company planned to increase production to 1.5 billion cubic meters. In 2018, the company intends to drill 16 wells, investing $ 150 million in production.The third largest producer, PJSC "Naftobrurinye", in 2017 increased its production by one and a half times to 390 million cubic meters. The company simultaneously drilled three wells. In 2018, she plans to increase production by 50%.Other private players - Smart Energy, Geo Alliance, JKX Oil & Gas - also have a chance to significantly increase gas production in 2018.Consequently, there are all prerequisites for Ukrainian companies to break the current negative trend. Of course there are high risks that manufacturers will not have enough time to significantly increase production in 2018. However, it is likely that we will see a rapid growth of the industry in the next two to three years.

[stonefold] 18/5/2018 20:03

Do not forget the court cases, when considering potential debt.

Cash now estimate $3.7 m = ( 7.4m cash at 31-12-2017 minus 6.9m bond repay Feb 2018 plus 3.2m net profit Jan-May)

The company is making enough profit to just about cover general running costs and Bond repayments.

Bond repayment 19th Feb 2019 $6.9m

Bond repayment 19th Feb 2020 $6.9m

But to expand production with new drilling it may need to borrow money.

Hence why they opened a Credit line (12 months Ukraine) up to $5.3m available.

So far so good, if could be debt free in two years.


That is if you ignore the two court cases.

RNS 29-03-2018
See the Resolving outstanding tax issues section.

It is possible that JKX win both of them.
It is possible that the Ukrainian Government forgets for a moment how short of cash it is and benevolently withdraws the cases.

Or like the company you can consider how damaging the risk of losing the cases might be.

"..... The Company will continue to defend its position in local courts. Given the materiality of these tax liabilities we have considered the risk to the Group's ability to continue as a going concern further in Note 2 to the financial information. Additional detail on tax litigation cases is provided in Note 27 to the financial information. .........."


The plus side of the court cases eventually being resolved is that the Ukrainians will release the arbitration money.

Credit owing to JKX for arbitration tribunal in 2017 of approximately $12.1 m

Unfortunately the cost of losing the cases is more than the credit.

The tax authorities have lodged another appeal with the Supreme Court for underpayment of royalty from 2010 of approximately $11.3 million.

The other case is still being contested in court for underpayment of royalty from 2015 of approximately $25.8 million.


So JKX may end up owing the Ukrainian Tax dept. approx. $25.1 m


The Ukrainian Government would be in a strong position to demand prompt payment, or to take control of the assets of the company.

The Ukrainian Government already have a charge over the assets of JKX taken during early stages of the court cases.

The Ukrainian Government can suspend or confiscate JKX's production licences for outstanding taxes.

14-03-2018
".....The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources has developed and promulgated a draft law providing for the suspension and cancellation of special permits for the use of oil and gas subsoil to companies that have a tax debt to pay rent. ...."

It is not uncommon for production licences to be suspended.


Next elections are in March 2019, that may encourage an attempt to get the cases over quickly so that the Government can make use of the funds rather than letting the spoils go to whoever wins the election.


What are the chances of getting a fair trial?
See the section on Juridical corruption


DYOR

[gregpeck7] 17/5/2018 22:48

Have invested here and feel very confident. Just need to let it move in towards 50p.

[mam fach] 17/5/2018 19:16

If there's anyone out there it's looking good.

[mam fach] 16/5/2018 14:03

Pity this is below the radar.
Won't take much buying to move this North.

[gregpeck7] 11/5/2018 18:52

More late large buys coming in... stake building continues.

[mam fach] 10/5/2018 11:36

Never seen spread so low. .40p. Must mean rise in price imminent?

[gregpeck7] 04/5/2018 16:17

Nice recovery here today. Hopefully getting ready for next leg up.

[kikkeridirect] 03/5/2018 20:15

Looks like I lost my investment in this today ?

[kikkeridirect] 03/5/2018 19:30

New to this thread Seems volatile this stock

[gregpeck7] 03/5/2018 13:34

A bit of consolidation before moving on again. No real selling. People know what this is worth...

[gregpeck7] 03/5/2018 10:16

And chesty they are producing almost 10,000 boepd.. and valued at 40 to 50m not sure where it sits at the moment. Oil is now close to 75 us and they get a premium for their sales. The valuation is ridiculous so it should be re rating.