Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[1aconic] 30/12/2021 08:12

Don't apologise - I wasn't even going to dig myself until your comments inspired me to share the workload and see if I could find anything else. Team effort!

The unpaid invoices to April would have been included in underlying EBITDA regardless I think - work done and invoiced. If they thought they weren't going to be paid they'd perhaps be treated as exceptional items and might not move underlying EBITDA at all.

The costs afterwards when they weren't working on the project (that will now be paid) I'm not sure about - that might have been a grey area. Probably explains why the dial on underlying EBITDA hasn't moved.

Accounting intracacies aside, I think it's safe to say that the cash position is a least several million healthier though and the state of the company is!

Afterwards I looked a bit closer at the whole project and the Mozambique insurgence as a result too - a $60 billion project isn't one that's just going to be forgotten about! Might take a while but hopefully the work will eventually restart in the future if things become more stable in the region.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 20:07

1aconic - Ouch! Wrong again. Not doing well today.

Yup. Project not suspended until April21 when Totalenergies declared force majeure. Strange I thought it was last year. Seems a long year I guess. I should have checked before replying.

Which means I don't have a clue.

But I was probably closer with my earlier guess - that work would have been invoiced and paid normally until April - invoices unpaid after that are likely not large enough to shift the dial on the underlying ebitda? The work postponed over the last 8months is likely to be much larger.

sorry for confusion caused, I'll get my coat....

cheers

[1aconic] 29/12/2021 19:09

I do get the impression the Mozabique project is large but after reviewing the last annual and H1 reports myself, I'm not convinced it formed part of the 19.3m provisions.

In the interims:
This division was also affected by the suspension of projects in Mozambique following an insurgency in the region.

That implies (and a couple of other comments) imply that the issues only started in H1 so maybe wouldn't have been one of the three projects that formed the 19.3m provisions in FY20.

But in the Marine Support section it also states:
"suspension of projects in Mozambique due to an insurgency in the local area has adversely affected performance" ... "there are on-going dispute resolution discussions with our clients to seek recovery of amounts contractually due for work completed to date, and this could provide some variability to 2021 performance."

Segmental revenue for Marine Support in H1 was 97.7m. If it's noted as potentially causing some variability to performance it surely suggests that it's a project of notable magnitude?

There's also another note in there about being hopeful to resume the project once the situation stabilizes.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 15:17

1aconic - yes, that is a good point. I think you might well be right there.

On a quick look at the 2020 accounts they declared an impairment of £19.3m against a number of projects where they felt it was necessary. How much of that is against the Mozambique project - who knows. But it might well be a large chunk of it - if not most of it - in which case my previous thinking was way too low.

Thanks for pointing that out,

cheers

[1aconic] 29/12/2021 14:52

Illis - isn't it likely that the settlement would form part of seperately disclosed items anyway and therefore not in the underlying EBITDA figure that guidance is given for? It might be the case that it's just be the ongoing costs (that will now be agreed will be covered) that would no longer be a hit to underlying EBITDA going foreward.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 14:46

Thanks Roddie,

thats my reading as well. Backed up by some googling and it looks as if there is a lot of good will in Southern Africa to get the project back on track again.

Good luck all and here's to a prosperous 2022 - resurfacing if not flying!

cheers

[1aconic] 29/12/2021 14:44

As I said when the CEO put 100k of his own cash in at the start of November, the probabilities of the covenants being breached doesn't seem anywhere near as high as the market is pricing in.

We've now had two concrete steps away since then and hopefully that sets us on the road to a brighter place. Even so, we're still well below the 420p that he was willing to stump up. If the market stops pricing this for death, today's move should hopefully look like buttons.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 14:44

'Does anyone know what they were due under this contract?'

No Elsa I don't - I expect that the sums that they settled for are subject to an NDA. I'd be surprised if not!

As they've not increased the ebitda range from 27-32m I'd guess that its less than 5m and in the range £2m-£3m in terms of cash to be received now - with maybe more for 2022 - but more likely a resumption in operations in 2022 which would be much better news.

cheers

[roddiemac2] 29/12/2021 14:35

illis,

"Seems likely there is some movement on the project to cause that?" Yes, it looks like FSJ may be dealing with a postponement , as opposed to a cancellation.

A happy and prosperous New Year to you and all other holders.

[elsa7878] 29/12/2021 14:26

Does anyone know what they were due under this contract? Thanks

[hamhamham1] 29/12/2021 14:20

24 months ago this was 2055p

[r2oo] 29/12/2021 14:18

Looks like a pretty strong rebound, this will also squeeze out the short sellers.

[hamhamham1] 29/12/2021 13:37

Bit of resistance at 396p, but then clear though to double that.

[roddiemac2] 29/12/2021 11:21

Emeraldzebra,

I have sent you two messages.

[roddiemac2] 29/12/2021 11:10

hybrasil,

It is a simple choice. You buy some now , conscious of the risks, or you wait until results are out towards the end of Feb next year. If the news is good then , it will not be too late to buy.

[hybrasil] 29/12/2021 10:52

Ok so I missed the bottom. That news on covenants is excellent. Do I still buy?
Mmmmm!

[hybrasil] 29/12/2021 10:52

Ok so I missed the bottom. That news on covenants is excellent. Do I still buy?
Mmmmm!

[our haven] 29/12/2021 10:16

R2oo. Very good news indeed. Share price reacting accordingly I am pleased to see.Good be a great boost for 2022 sentiment.

[r2oo] 29/12/2021 10:13

Finally, some well overdue good news for FSJ.Mozambique updateJames Fisher and Sons plc (FSJ.L) ('James Fisher', 'the Group'), the leading marine service provider, today confirms that it has received all outstanding funds relating to the suspended LNG project in Mozambique.-- The funds received reduce net debt and provide further headroom against the Group's year-end banking covenant tests.-- The Group has settled all outstanding claims in relation to the suspended LNG project in Mozambique and accordingly has withdrawn its arbitration proceedings.-- The agreement settles claims in relation to work performed before the suspension of the project and covers the Group's outgoings in relation to costs incurred during the suspension of the project in 2021.-- The terms of the settlement also cover the Group's costs through 2022 in the event that the project does not resume in the short term.

[emeraldzebra] 28/12/2021 09:41

Happy Christmas one all all. All the very best for 2022. Roddie - i sent you a PM - which hope you received (?). E

[bouleversee] 23/12/2021 19:45

Let's hope so. Here's to a happier new year from all p o.v.

[soleman1] 23/12/2021 19:00

Don't want to call it too soon but a little bounce and reversal on the weekly, might have put the bottom in.

[wigwammer] 21/12/2021 15:31

With respect, if they bought large quantities of this dog at multiples of the current price, I'm not blown away by their capability. But every dog has its day. ATB