Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lucky punter] 28/10/2007 18:57

It looks like Itis are taking this worldwide domination thing seriously.



This is an interesting blog for those who think TFC are superior to Itis.



It appears that the professionals at Itis are happy to talk shop with users and shareholders. It is so refreshing.

[lucky punter] 25/10/2007 22:47

Three weeks to results already flagged as the best H1 performance so far, surely this share price can not hold back for long.

[wjccghcc] 24/10/2007 22:03

thanks flyfisher. interesting to look at their assumptions. Do you have a breakdown of uk vs intl revenues in the notes?

[flyfisher] 24/10/2007 19:44

wjcc - in contrast to the digital look figures, the 2008 / 2009 forecasts from the td waterhouse research pages show the two most recent forecasts as :
arbuthnot 2008 / 4.7 pbt 2009 / 5.1 pbt
investec 2008 / 4.7 pbt 2009 / 4.9 pbt
a 5 - 10% increase from 08 to 09. back in august , prior to the recent trading update, the forecast growth was flat.

[lucky punter] 24/10/2007 13:14

Yes the figures announced for year end 2008 will not be affected by the loss of a 1 million pound contract.
On a likely turnover of 25 million plus for year end 2009 who much impact is it really likely to have, you do not know what contracts will be signed between now and then so it is not really that relevant. International ventures more often than not get hampered by local licensing which will be less of an issue as the approach is using strong local partners who, one would think would be up to speed with local issues. They will also have a good local customer base.
Satnav and other info users are far less developed in other parts of the world and have not really evolved beyond finding the best route from A to B. Live traffic info could take these markets by storm and be very big very quickly.
Only my opinion and a lot depends on ITH approach to those areas but they have the cash to make a splash.

[lucky punter] 24/10/2007 12:34

WJCCGHCC
The contract runs to Feb 2008 so it will not be in the current financial year. By next year they will have some income from other projects around the world. Aus and Singapore are moving ahead with a strong local partner. The cost implications for ITH will be very limited and some return can be expected. Ith are also experiencing increasing income from their UK customers. The recent contract for copilot will be producing extra income from day one as the customer base is existing at 40000 units.
Contracts come and go and that is the challenge. With the cost base so low at ITH and the cash held so high they are in a position to capitalise on new business.
The company have reported their best ever H1, it remains to be seen what that means in the way of profit but at these very low levels they are a good punt. IMHO

[wjccghcc] 24/10/2007 11:31

The question is how will they make up the 1mm shortfall from the loss of contracts next year? The brokers clearly think it's possible given they're forecasting pretty much flat PBT but how much of that is assuming the international ops will make a contribution?

[lucky punter] 24/10/2007 10:49

Looks good to me to at these levels. I would be surprised to see interims below 2.3 million profit and full year below 5 million. I guess we wait and see.
Good luck.

[kallista] 24/10/2007 10:41

My sums say underlying profit on continuing ops c. £3.9m v market cap of £37m after cash has been stripped out.

Positive statement re record H1 results and robust FY.

Interest receivable increasing rapidly due to £4m additional cash and rising interest rates.

Looks good to me.

[lucky punter] 24/10/2007 10:41

My assumption is that the 11 will be minus the divi, which still is to be paid (I think)plus any profit in the meantime.
I am not to sure if there are any further tax credits to come because I tend to consider them as bonus and look at the core profits. Anyway they will not become apparent at the interims. The AGM announcement suggests that this year has started as last year finished with the company attracting income above the expectations.
I am hoping for some more info on the rest of the world which provides massive mid to long term growth.

[kallista] 24/10/2007 10:31

Thankx LP

Also see the £1.49m deferred tax credit - is that a one-off?
Plus there was £11m cash at year end, presumably more now as they are presumably cashflow positive.

[lucky punter] 24/10/2007 10:18

Kallista
I think it is due to recent contract losses and general apathy in the sector. The company and the product are sound in my view.
The current PE is very low but is a false representation as it includes exceptionals.
The actual PE however is still low and a lower still prespective PE will be confirmed at the interims.

[kallista] 24/10/2007 10:12

Got tempted and dipped in for a few this am. Held these about a year ago and made a good profit. Cannot understand why these are so cheap.

Interims were 1st November last year so not too long to wait.

[lucky punter] 24/10/2007 09:10

Very tempted at this level. Interims in the next few weeks and the management have already disclosed that they will be better than last year. ITH are rolling out their platform around the world through partnership and have plenty of cash to play with. Very tempted.
Edit. Just bought some.

[typo56] 01/10/2007 10:21

Just called Itis. They say that they are still awaiting court and shareholder approval for the payment of the maiden dividend. I wonder why shareholder approval for the dividend wasn't sought at the AGM last month.

If the dividend isn't paid it makes the yield quoted by financial sites rather misleading.

[tom306] 24/9/2007 14:18

It is bullish but only for this year. I guess that is because the Department for Transport contract only runs out next financial year, and that was £1m of revenue and a substantial part of the PBT. I am surprised they mentioned that but not the loss of the Vauxhall contact. Does that mean they don't expect to make up that shortfall?

All in all, a bit vague about next year having lost 2 major UK contracts and not yet replaced them. They have clearly switched emphasis from the UK, where they face real competition, to overseas. That may produce more opportunity but perhaps also greater risk and longer timeframes. So far, the overseas projects don't seem to be producing the level of revenue needed to replace the DOT and Vauxhall. We shall have to wait and see.

[orange1] 24/9/2007 13:46

Bullish statement (including news of a new overseas project) to be given at today's AGM as follows:

""All areas of our business have traded strongly in the first five months of the year and we therefore expect to report our best ever first half year results. We expect trading to remain robust for the rest of the year across all our business areas.

Our contract with the Department for Transport to provide them with historic
data finishes in February 2008 and we are working hard towards replacing the
revenue and profit associated with this contract in the next financial year.
However, based on the information previously provided, our data will continue to form the base line for the local Public Service Agreement congestion targets
until 2011.

Our international business continues to develop at a fast pace headed by Dr Gary Gates who was appointed to the ITIS Holdings plc Board on 23rd July 2007. In particular following the successful launch our Cellular Floating Vehicle Data (CFVD) in Australia with Optus who are part of the Singtel Group, (one of Asia's leading communications groups) we are pleased to announce that we are working with Singtel on a CFVD project in Singapore. Interest remains high in our technology backed by our unrivalled experience and success in the commercial traffic business. We continue to receive enquiries from all over the world and are at various stages of negotiation in a number of new countries."

The AGM kicks off in 45 mins. Anybody going?

[typo56] 14/9/2007 19:22

When is the 1.5p dividend announced on 11th June actually going to be paid? Was it just a ploy to grab headlines?

[pilgrim74] 03/9/2007 17:00

Trafficmaster has just won a new contract with volkswagon. That might explain the RNS message here last week. It was a panic post to try to show they are not lurching into a crisis, with TFC making major inroads on their turf.

Could well herald a new bout of selling here. There does seem to be good support at 50p but if it goes below that it could fall much further still.

I hope some of you guys took my advice last time and moved into trafficmaster. TFC already up about 15% since that post, and i think there is plenty more to come......

[hew] 29/8/2007 09:39

RNS - Impressed? No. Neither is anyone else here judging by the lack of comment! This doesn't count as it is now 9.30 a.m.

Unless they had to issue it (surprising, I would have thought) I suggest they should have withheld it to (hopefully!) bundle with others in a month or two, after the holiday season. They could then have presented a "going along ok" message.

Issuing such a thin RNS today smells of defensiveness, and it alone, without numbers and without any general positive message, was never going to help the share price. It is down of course.

There is the possibility that they will issue a string of good news items over the next week or two and this might be just the first. That remote possibility is the only scenario I can see that would justify this release.

I'm a holder - still a decent chunk of my portfolio. No advice. (Except to ITIS of course!)

Hew

[tom306] 20/8/2007 07:42

Lucky
The terms of the Vauxhall deal were not disclosed but the DfT deal was. TFC get £3m for a 3.5 year deal. The original contract with ITIS was £3.25m for a 3 year deal. ITIS have always said they have a mainly fixed cost base so much of the £3.25m would have gone to their bottom line. If TFC has a similar profile then much of the £3m will go to their bottom line. That's a significant swing for two companies valued under £75m!

[lucky punter] 18/8/2007 10:18

Pilgrim
When I said there has been no reaction it is to the last two pieces of news. The share price has hardly moved. TFC is fairly priced in the current climate but of course the climate can degrade or improve. I would suggest the turmoil will subside this week and you will see if it ticks up a bit. TFC have a lot to prove if they expect to return to their previous levels. Its not just winning the contracts but the financials of the contracts that are important. If TFC are price cutting to steal contracts from Itis whilst they are busy expanding around the world they will regret that move in due course as Itis are much better placed financially to play that game.
If however the clients preferred the product thats fair enough. I suspect the canny investors will sit out until we know.