Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[wololol] 01/1/2021 14:25

This recent video is Unilever home care president Kulve, talking about how they are reformulating and partnering with novel suppliers to decarbonise and have safer chemicals in detergents. Really interesting and highlights the industry is moving in favour of ITX products.

[parob] 01/1/2021 13:31

Indeed this was key news for the industry in 2020. News from 2/9/20Unilever to eliminate fossil fuels in cleaning products by 2030London/Rotterdam - Unilever, a leading manufacturer of cleaning and laundry products, today announces it will source 100% of the carbon derived from fossil fuels in its cleaning and laundry product formulations with renewable or recycled carbon. This move is set to transform the sustainability of global cleaning and laundry brands including Omo (Persil), Sunlight, Cif and Domestos.hTTps://www.unilever.com/news/press-releases/2020/unilever-to-invest-1-billion-to-eliminate-fossil-fuels-in-cleaning-products-by-2030.html

[purchaseatthetop] 01/1/2021 13:02

Thanks Thordon.
In case anybody is interested check out Bushvelt Minerals BMN. I am quite heavily in them. They are one of only three primary vanadium miners in the world and vanadium will replace lithium Ion energy storage for large scale renewables. It traditionally is used to strengthen rebar for building. I have been pouring money into BMN for the last three months. Now I will divert the flow into ITX and AGL.
GLA and check everything for yourselves. Do not believe a word I write!!!

[wololol] 01/1/2021 12:59

Could you imagine if Unilever or the like reformulated to contain ITX polymers?! Unilever are currently in the process of reformulating their cleaning products not to contain harmful chemicals so it's not out of the question especially with the success of the Clorox dishwasher pods which is also a major brand.

[thordon] 01/1/2021 12:46

Good points

Would like to add another point , walking in a supermarket on the shelves are more and more green products with ITX.
Shelve space increasing which will trigger a response from the main manufacturers to add and replace there main products.
So bearing this in Mind ITX sent out samples to all the main manufacturers , so a head start for product change.
If the shelves and advertisings for these green products increase we will get a explosion of orders , only down side there would be a small upgrade to the facility a cost and from memory of $500,000.
So we may need a capital injection , which would be willing to inject.

2021 going to interesting.

Households and investors are rushing for green stocks now , hence the rise this week.
Biome was another one , which missed out on

[purchaseatthetop] 01/1/2021 12:21

H2 20 $2m
H1 21 $3m
H2 21 $4m Total for 2021 $7m - end of cash burn. $1.3m in bank 31/12/20 will be just enough.

[purchaseatthetop] 01/1/2021 12:20

Thanks wololol....so sales are snowballing and what happened 6 months ago means nothing. Good. It looks more and more likely that critical sales mass will be reached sooner rather than later.

[the ghost who walks] 01/1/2021 12:20

So we should be looking for 2h revenue more like double first half, I.e. around 2mln dollar.I

[wololol] 01/1/2021 12:15

Shaw advised in a proactive interview the New Wave deal was worth a couple of million dollars over 2020 and 2021 but since then he has alluded that sales are ahead of expectations. The Clorox dishwasher and Aldi radiance pods are the main end products from the TSI polymer and they are expected to increase sales as they penetrate market share and are distributed more widely. Note my recent post about Clorox now being available in Walmart from November this year emphasises this. There will be even more dishwasher launches next year 2 already confirmed.

[purchaseatthetop] 01/1/2021 11:57

Thanks Parob....that means that N+1 Singer $2.8m is the same as my calc a few posts ago with another 60% rise in H2. As ITX only recruited the new VP sales and marketing in Nov 20 the loss should be lower with the extra $600k earnings in H2 at 35% margin (extra $200k of gross margin). Very cautious.
I wonder how much New Waves contributes to 2020 sales and what 1,000,000b is worth in 2021? Anybody know?
Thanks for all your input on this understanding.

[parob] 01/1/2021 11:51

Post 3743 by rivaldo (28/10/20)N+1 Singer have today reintroduced forecasts for this year (next year's will follow 2020 results). They see a total $2.8m revenues for the year, with H1's $1.1m revenues rising to $1.7m in H2, and "cautiously" estimate a similar loss in H2 as in H1. Year end cash is forecast at $1.3m.

[purchaseatthetop] 01/1/2021 11:38

Thanks TGWW's....I forgot that. Also the new 1,000,000b supply agreement for 2021 to "New Wave" will kick in and that has not been a material part of sales up to now as far as I know.
You may well be undercooking the increase being realistic. With the last 2 months of H1 being $250k per month, as you say that is $3m annually without any further increase. Assuming that the $250k per month is increasing and will jump in 2021 with New Wave we should be looking at $7m plus for FY2021. That is breakeven nearly. Cash burn would be almost zero by October 21.
Putting all the pieces together this company really makes sense.

[the ghost who walks] 01/1/2021 11:24

Given all the products you've highlighted I would hope we have some momentum being shown!I'm looking at the public data and if they were on 0.25 per month for may and June I would hope for revenues in the range of 2 for second half, I.e. a doubling half year on half year,

[the ghost who walks] 01/1/2021 11:23

Paros that would be zero momentum if they reported that. Remebmber they did 1.1in 1h but there was a big acceleration. They reported 0.6 for the first 4 months, meaning 0.5 for the last two months, or 0.25 a month on average. Multiply that by 6 and they were already at a run rate of 1.5, so it would need to be better than that to show continued momentum.

[purchaseatthetop] 01/1/2021 11:09

Morning Parob.....I am buying into AGL on Monday. Good crew on the AGL board. Thanks

6 monthly revenues past:

30/6/20 $1,086k +59% on 31/12/19
31/12/19 $685k
30/6/19 $603k
31/12/18 $480k

If they increase by another 59% to 32/12/20 then that is $1.725m H2 20

Now they have Monna Manning as VP sales and marketing we can expect H1 2021 to increase further. Say 75% increase on H2 2020

$1.725m *1.75 = $3.02m H1 2021

That would put ITX almost at breakeven. OK it is all finger in the air but it is useful to scenario plan now before actual results arrive as our natural heuristics then will be to agree that we all thought that what happened would happen (and that is not the case).

Therefore, right now, if H2 20 sales are near to $1.725m (FY $2,8m) then this share is as cheap as chips. I will keep a pile of cash ready for the Jan update ready to launch in.

[parob] 01/1/2021 10:51

Those revs would also show growth of over 100% for FY 2020 over FY 2019.

[parob] 01/1/2021 10:40

I doubt they’ll double H1 revenues but 40%/50% growth over 6 months to $1.54/1.65M H2 ($2.64/$2.75M FY) would be great in my book. That would represent over 120% growth for H2 2020 over H2 2019.

Hopefully not too long to find out with a trading update in Jan.

Here are some more products containing ITX ingredients:

Peter Coppola - Keratin Intensive Repair Treatment



———————-

Italian co-op home brand: Salviette intime lenitive 15 pz

[the ghost who walks] 31/12/2020 08:05

The main milestone is for revenues to get to 4-5mln so that the company is profitable. Once that is achieved, or looks like it will be achieved, the stock will be much higher. The next update will be important to give a sense of progress. Hopefully with all the new products Paros is highlighting we will see very rapid growth in the second half compared to the first half, maybe a doubl8ng. If we do the share price will be 4-5 post that disclosure in my view.

[parob] 31/12/2020 07:53

Here's a link to the most recent company presentation:hTTps://tinyurl.com/y3mdcamuJohn Shaw presents to investors at the Proactive One2One Virtual Conference. Itaconix PLC aims to be a leader in functional polymers that improve the safety, performance and sustainability of our customer's products.From 26/7/20

[purchaseatthetop] 31/12/2020 07:46

The $75m figure is simply a guess. If the world turns more green and the major global distributors make it part of their marketing USP then you can be pretty sure that either:
1) ITX will be bought out for a large sum, or
2) ITX will be bought out for a huge sum.
I just want an itsy bitsy part of that.

[ragnarr] 30/12/2020 23:01

Hi revenues for 2020 were 1.1m sales were up about 80 percent so its safe to assume full year sales will be in the region of 3m - just imagine the share price with 75m revenue

[elsol] 30/12/2020 22:11

Comment re; "The Directors also estimate that, in the next five to ten years, Itaconix has the potential to capture annual revenues of $75 million of this future potential market."

This statement is on a stand alone basis.
If ITX is acquired by the right larger global (synergistically aligned) ECO /Green player then the $75m in sales won't take 5 to 10 years to deliver in my opinion, it will be 3 to 5 years. It just needs the right commercial connection to be made.

[parob] 30/12/2020 20:06

Purch,

A really encouraging development which wololol (another bb poster) uncovered in the summer is that Clorox (via distributor NewWave) use an Itaconix ingredient in their Triple Action Dishwasher Detergent:





Clorox are a $29B Turnover so the big players are using it.

I tweeted about it at the time:

[the ghost who walks] 30/12/2020 19:27

Again, take a look at the fundraising to see what the company defined as its addressable market.