Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[donny b] 08/4/2002 00:44

johns-ok

If I was in your position John and still had serious money in this stock
which £22k is alot of money I would look for a company that has everything going for it and transfer my funds to that company,yes it will cost you a few quid to transfer because of dealing costs but the bulk of your £22k will be intact with great prospects of growing if you select the right company rather than leaving it in ITX and hoping something will happen,you may find your £22k will be worth nothing if ITX goes bust which is not out of the question as it stands at the moment.

This is not intended as advice it's just if I was sitting on that kind of money I would do the above.

Good luck.

[johns_ok] 08/4/2002 00:21

2Deano

Thanks for rubbing it in mate. I still hold over £22,000.00 worth of ITX. I've managed to average the shareprice down to about £1.14. It's not really worth selling at this price is it? What else can you do but hope for a miracle???

Any suggestions greatfully received.
John

[2deano] 07/4/2002 21:23

Well mi££ions, there are always exceptions to every rule. Of course small companies can become the giants of tomorrow. How many of those small stocks become the 'nothings' of tomorrow? Any idea of the success ratio of those that break into the top ranks. Then, of course, the leading issues one day, become the has beens of tomorrow ( see Baltimore as a marvellous example ). It is indeed true that you could make some good selections and do well. Smaller caps = higher risk, generally speaking. Higher risk also works hand in hand with potentially higher rewards. Well informed/researched investors will always do better than people devoting more time to football and other trivial pursuits :o)

I agree with what you're saying, in that elephants don't gallop. Depends on your selection criteria of small caps. Many punters opt for speculative ( and often illiquid situations ) stocks thinking that they can make more money out of a stock that moves quickly. They will snub the opportunity of a few points advance over a month or two, while their cheap & often volatile stocks end up selling at less than the price they originally paid ( then they have liquidity and undesirable spreads to contend with, so often hang on and hope ).

Of course, I am generalising and, to a lesser extent, making sweeping statements with the above. I make no apologies ( zebras in lion country spring to mind ), although I do accept that certain situations merit further investigation and due diligence, so I do not discount all small caps ( and again I emphasise that it heavily depends on ones selection criteria ). ITX is certainly not an example of a good small cap ! So this one will most likely be added to the list of "100% loss from inception" stocks. I make that a very bad return for any buy and 'grimly' hold investors in this stock.

Care to share your turbo charged selections with us?

Rgds.

[mi££ions] 07/4/2002 21:03

You could argue that big companies were small companies once. Big companies go up 11% p.a. over decades (see FTSE-100 or DOW JONES for details...). Carefully picked small companies make much bigger gains. Uninformed and unresearched investors make big losses.

[2deano] 07/4/2002 20:42

You could also argue that the market goes down a 1/3 of the time, trades sideways a third of the time and goes up a 1/3 of the time. You will be lucky to get an 11% average compounded return as a buy and hold investor over the next few years.

Rgds.

This is not investment advice. DYOR.

[2deano] 07/4/2002 16:19

johns-ok,

As you have requested my suggestion, I have detailed below why I think ITX is a SELL. I will leave it to your common sense and judgement to reach a decision ;o)

I am sympathetic of your position ( but not empathetic, thankfully ).
As of Friday close, ITX was 13p to SELL. So currently you hold, if my calculations are correct, around 19300 ITX shares at an average of £1-14 ( or thereabouts ). Is that assumption correct? I am assuming that when you say you hold 22k's worth, you are not factoring in the paper losses which you would have to crystallise if you were to sell into the market at current prices. So, hypothetically, if you were to sell at 13p ( assuming you could get 13p on Monday ), you would get around 2.5K ( - commission ) back on that sale.

I am not qualified to give advice, but I can tell you that if I were sitting there in your position I would definitely sell without a moments hesitation; in the beat of a doves wing, no less. My personal view is that the company will be wound up sooner than people think. I now estimate that ITX has under 3m left in cash. It is burning around 1m a month.

Consider this:
By the end of June the company will have most probably burnt through all of its cash ( i.e. shareholders are unlikely to ever see a penny of it in my personal opinion ).

If you can afford to throw 2.5k down the drain, then I would welcome that contribution with open arms ! It would pay for a nice holiday and a few pina coladas. For purposes of hypothetical demonstration, would you pass up the opportunity of somebody giving you £2500 with no strings attached? Does £2500 mean anything to you in the grander scheme of things ( i.e. is it a sum of money that affects your life in any way). All too often people don't crystallise small losses because they can't emotionally deal with taking that loss. Instead, they average down in order to negate that loss. Then when it falls again, they think the market has got it wrong or this is another ideal opportunity to average down. It is folly to average down into an established downtrend. Always stop to consider that the market knows something you don't. Chinese walls are porous and have ears !

At 14p MID, ITX is capitalised at around 4.9m
I estimate that it is worth about 7.9p ( approx ) at the moment in cash. That value is decreasing by around 0.1p per day ( i.e. every 10 days that elapses, take another penny off that 7.9p figure ). It is currently trading on around a 6p premium to cash ( 75% premium ) which is totally unjustified IMHO. Every day it stays at 14p, that premium to cash increases. These calculations may not be absolutely 100% to the decimal point, but for purposes of illustration they more than suffice. Please also note that I have not factored winding up costs into the above cash estimates. It will probably cost 1-2m ( rough estimate ) to wind up the company, so you could argue that there is hardly any value left at all ( if any ), if you were to conclude that ITX will be insolvent in the not so distant future.

I give these views with honourable intentions. I am not seeking to de-ramp ITX, the facts are there for anybody willing to look at them with open eyes. If I can help somebody to save the last 2.5k of their investment, then here it is. I hope I have made it clear why it is folly to hold ITX ( in my personal opinion ). Remember: People marry hope - are joined at the hip. There is no point in watching your remaining investment disappear into oblivion.

Best regards & remember you owe me a drink when it comes to light that I have saved you a bundle of oaken ash :o)

Time for a cup of tea.

This is not investment advice. DYOR.

[shorttermtrader] 04/4/2002 15:51

ITX bouncing at the moment - might be worth a short-term punt?
might bounce back to 16-17?

[2deano] 04/4/2002 14:55

Negus,

I don't feel there is a need to keep ramping SBE on an ITX thread. Post it on a general thread or under SBE.

With thanks.

[brgccfc114] 04/4/2002 14:52

maybe we dont want to

[2deano] 04/4/2002 14:31

You assume that all posters on this thread are LONG of ITX?. Read my previous posts and you will see I notified others of ITX's probable demise some time ago. Anybody that has continued to hold until now is either mad or stupid - probably both !

Rgds.

[2deano] 04/4/2002 13:50

Negus,

I haven't gone to check link, but apologies as I thought you were commenting on Inter-X. Mis-read your comment etc etc.

Why are you posting about SBE on an ITX thread ?

Rgds.

[negus1] 04/4/2002 13:15

DID I NOT TELL YOU GUYS TO GET OUT YESTERDAY AND GET INTO SBE WELL ITS YOUR LOSS NOT MINES GOOD LUCK TO ALL IF YOU KNOW WHAT I KNOW YOU WILL NEED IT

[negus1] 04/4/2002 13:13

TOLD YOU GUYS TO GET OUT AND IN TO SBE MAYBE NOW YOU WILL TAKE HEED

[catapuss] 04/4/2002 11:59

Thanks. Could you possibly name one or two?

[goodfella] 04/4/2002 11:52

catapuss

Traditional brokers

[catapuss] 04/4/2002 11:42

Advice to the uneducated. Where are you getting your short selling from for Interx? I was under the impression that you can't normally get this service for such a low market cap?

[goodfella] 04/4/2002 11:02

Mug Punter

I dont know Ill ask him and let you know.

I certainly did though

[mi££ions] 04/4/2002 10:17

Yes,
Evil did re-open a short. We'll soon be at the point where there's just enough cash to wind the company up!

[mug punter] 04/4/2002 09:55

Weak as water again Today - down another 19%.

On the way to 6p again. Only another 8p to go now !!

Negus1,

You appear to be talking complete nonsense. People have been thrown off this board for posting false takeover stories.

[mug punter] 04/4/2002 09:53

Weak as water again Today - down another 19%.

On the way to 6p again. Only another 8p to go now !!

Goodfella,

Didn't Evil re-open a short on these ?

[mug punter] 04/4/2002 09:51

Weak as water again Today - down another 19%.

On the way to 6p again. Only another 8p to go now !!

[2deano] 03/4/2002 11:51

negus - that sounds like nonsense. Please back this up with a link to the article ( if there is one, which I doubt )

skhanft - because ITX is going out of business (IMO ) and people have decided that it is is a good time to sell when it is dead-in-the-water.

This is not investment advice. DYOR.