Ip Share Discussion Threads

[craigso] 21/9/2024 06:33

@houseofpain1 Good to know. Thanks.

I've only owned IPO for a few weeks - somehow I timed the floor at 37p and topped up a bit more later - but having lurked on this board for awhile previously it seemed the consensus was that IPO is a bit of a dog with terrible management. (therefore the massive discount, above and beyond a "normal" PE discount)

I understand IT/ICs not wanting to shrink themselves out of existence (through buybacks and tenders), but equally any heavily-discounted IT/ICs not saying "the clear best investment we can find is our own shares" is a major red flag for me.

[houseofpain1] 20/9/2024 13:02

@craigso A few points to make:

IP's buyback was recently extended to £30m.

Their current capital allocation policy is to reinvest the majority of cash proceeds "with a smaller proportion used to deliver a cash return to investors". (Perhaps deliberately) a bit vague and certainly a lot less clear than CHRY's but, based on this, it seems that a minority (perhaps 33%, but who knows?) of the Featurespace sale proceeds will come back to shareholders - most likely by way of buyback given the discount but I guess a tender offer, or even a special dividend, is also a possibility.

Lastly, it's worth noting that IP is not technically an investment trust but an investment company. Its management team is therefore internalised and the vehicle will not face continuation votes etc in the way that ITs almost invariably do. Not to say that shareholder pressure can't be brought to bear in other ways but I don't see any activists on the shareholder register at present.

[craigso] 20/9/2024 12:33

@rimau1 It is true that CHRY has a clearer policy for any Featurespace proceeds, but if IPO sticks with their £20m share buyback instead of increasing it substantially (or running a tender), they're surely going to annoy major shareholders and lose the next continuation vote...

And any time an IT trading at a major discount manages to sell something big at >NAV, perception of the appropriate discount inevitably improves.

[apple53] 20/9/2024 09:53

So need to try to do some digging on Istesso, which is likely to be the next catalyst, in either direction. Otherwise should (!) grind marginally higher. With a credible NAV, even in a bombed out market, discount should shrink towards private equity names, ie no more than 40%

[rimau1] 20/9/2024 08:58

Its not about primarily about NAV because both Chry and IPO have revalued their holdings in Featurespace. Chry will rise more on this news because any further realisations unlock a formal share-buyback mechanism. As you know IPO are already buying back.

[peterrr3] 20/9/2024 07:59

Don't mind the market being a bit slow while I add thanks Craig.

[craigso] 20/9/2024 07:51

The market is really slow off the mark this morning with IPO.

CHRY has moved up 4% on the Featurespace "news" and IPO has barely budged... (even though IIRC there's more upside vs. NAV in IPO)

[p1nkfish] 19/9/2024 20:02

Yes unless we both miscalculated.

[value hound] 19/9/2024 19:19

AFAICS, a sale at £730m would represent an uplift of just over £34m to the end of June NAV or just over 3.4pps?

[wshak] 19/9/2024 16:24

Looks like good news

[p1nkfish] 19/9/2024 10:45

Watched presentation in full, I was impressed.
CEO and CFOO had a full grip on the controls.
My earlier attitude to the then new CEO has certainly changed and pleased he has the reins. I didn't see how he would develop into the role.

Pleased to have re-entered at decent volume and low price.

[peterrr3] 19/9/2024 06:29

Thanks for your thoughts swashbuck1er. I was struggling to join the dots as to what was the potential reasoning after the Stage 2 given the 2 specific comparison candidates.

[swashbuck1er] 18/9/2024 22:29

It's a drug-drug interaction trial. I have a couple of hypothesis of why this might be important. Either the phase 2 data suggests the drug needs delivery with patient stratification, or they have a potential licensing partner requiring good data as a condition precedent (or believe they need this data to achieve the same)

[bjfanc] 18/9/2024 07:28

There lies the issue. Increasing the percentage quoted might help.Or weightings of IT Tech vs BIO Tech.Given the risks in drug development.

[russman] 18/9/2024 04:48

if their valuations are fair then expand the buybacks to close the discount.
50% discount seems too high.

[peterrr3] 17/9/2024 20:31

Was looking at the wrong column, £127m

[p1nkfish] 17/9/2024 20:18

Find out soon enough. The fall from June onwards was precipitous and timing........ If it does get hit it will be interesting to see the volume. A £50M hit to NAV, if that's worse case, approx 5% of the £1Bn. Seeing through that needn't be a massive issue.

I'm more positive now than for ages simply because I think they are doing the right things.

£10M extra for the buy back is measured and could be increased. Where else could a 50% (approx) discount be bought?

No doubt some volatility and turbulence.

[bjfanc] 17/9/2024 19:04

Hard to quantify, the actual discount applied to Istesso within current share price.But everyone knows it's very high risk and given the delay, this level only increases.So i wouldn't be surprised to see mixed results. But who knows.

[peterrr3] 17/9/2024 18:09

I don't need the capitals thanks. If you think a £50m hit to the NAV has been factored into the share price, we can agree to disagree. Good news and I'm all in as plenty to like about quite a few of the others as well. Featurespace settles early and it might given the number of company house filings tidying up the capital structure and I may buy a bit more. But in the back of my mind they have only allocated £10m more for the buyback, that is £10m more to reach target discount to NAV.

[p1nkfish] 17/9/2024 17:35

Might the fall from June 2024 until recently be the pricing in of the Istesso risk?

[p1nkfish] 17/9/2024 17:29

Have you considered the Istesso risk might already (edit) be in the price and should it come out less than catastrophic the price might rise?