Iog Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 24/12/2021 10:15

Yesterday I think.

The numbers certainly look compelling...

[flyer61] 24/12/2021 10:10

Seriously?? when was that published..

[someuwin] 24/12/2021 10:01

IOG one of Shares Magazine's top ten tips for 2022

[flyer61] 24/12/2021 10:00

With luck there will be a write up over the Xmas period or possibly a bid is forthcoming. Failing that I will happily settle for first gas in January.

[cb7] 24/12/2021 09:59

For what its worth I anticipated around 60mm (10k bopde), but I'm always conservative. Thereafter anticipate about one month of monitoring the flow and pressure at this rate, before gradually opening up the taps.

[flyer61] 24/12/2021 09:54

Thanks Edgar,

I have made three more top ups 15 minutes ago 14/14/7 so I believe :-)

[edgar222] 24/12/2021 08:35

I suppose I may be badly wrong on projected 1st phase flow rates. But I know of no technical reason they cant flow at 70 mmscf/d and there is every commercial reason to flow at the max because of the current gas prices. Maybe the market is waiting to see and thats why the share is held back. Maybe LOG administrators are selling into the market and taking profit and holding the share back. Who knows? Who cares? When it goes it will go!

[flyer61] 23/12/2021 09:50

Thanks Edgar. If your figures are correct (and I have no reason to doubt them) then the 100M euro bond will be paid back very quickly. If the gas price stays elevated then there appears a lot of upside here. Not expecting to see 45p/therm again anytime soon.

[edgar222] 23/12/2021 09:20

FlyerNothing from the company. My (and others) efforts on bulletin boards and no-one has disagreed. Feels about right, no? Assuming some reservoir management is going on and they won't have the taps on full (103mmscf/d).But even if I am wrong about the flowrate, the numbers quoted allow some estimation of revenue. Just put in different numbers!The other variable is the gas price. Currently 8 times what it was at the time they the project was profitable enough to go ahead. Most forward predictions suggest high prices until at least next summer. By which time IOG will have repaid the Norwegian bond and funded the next few phases of building!

[flyer61] 23/12/2021 08:47

Edgar are you able to direct us to the document where 70mmscf/d is or is something you have guesstimated?

[marvelman] 23/12/2021 08:35

Edgar...the pound sign is more appropriate and the ipad knows it :-))

[edgar222] 22/12/2021 22:34

Dont know why the ipad substitutes a question mark for a pound sign.That should have read 150m pounds sterling net per quarter.

[edgar222] 22/12/2021 22:32

TalkmanA reasonable assumption is production of 70mmscf/d out of a maximum flow of 103mmscf/d on test rates.At these gas prices I am reading that is £150m net per quarter to IOG. PER QUARTER.Then double that production when Southwark comes online mid next year?The numbers are mind blowing. This is only going one way.

[sphere25] 22/12/2021 14:41

Added a few more.

Looking at the moves in gas prices and thinking I might have played it too safe here so just a few more, nothing drastic. It looks like we might be close to exhausting the sellers and breaking out here too but wait and see.

The moves in the gas prices are scary. I hope they top out soon or it could be an ugly feed through effect. Noted some companies recently mentioning having hedges in place but clearly that doesn't apply to all.

It just seems like one issue after the next out there. Surely IOG isn't going to become a form of a hedge is it?

(Bizarre thing to say I know but crazier things have happened)

There is some commentary on the gas price here:

"UK natural gas prices eased to 408 pence a therm on Wednesday, after jumping 21.5% to an all-time high of 451.7 pence in the previous session, as traders continued to monitor Russian supplies, freezing weather, and lower electricity output from alternative sources. Flows through the key Yamal-Europe pipeline headed eastwards for the second day in a row, while slow winds dented Britain’s wind power production. Europe’s largest wind power producers, the UK, Germany and the Netherlands harnessed just 14% of installed capacity during Q3, compared with an average of 20-26% seen in previous years. Additional upside risks stemmed from delays in the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which some analysts expect to be operational no sooner than September 2022, and risks of supply cuts amid deteriorating tensions in eastern Europe."


GOOD have come out with a statement today commenting on the price moves and calling it a crisis. They are having to secure additional financing.

Some comments from them:

"During December, power and gas prices have increased sharply to unprecedented levels, driven in part again by tension between Russia and Ukraine, the gateway of European gas imports, together with colder, calmer weather forecasts and a French nuclear plant being taken offline.

Since our last trading update on 25 November 2021, a little over three weeks ago:

- Power and gas prices on a Day Ahead basis for December compared to November have been on average 36% and 35% more expensive respectively at GBP256/Mwh and GBP2.71/therm

- Q1 2022 baseload power and gas prices at GBP489/Mwh and GBP4.39/therm are 102% and 89% higher respectively

- The increases in nearer term power and gas prices are all now feeding very strongly in 2022/2023 seasonal contracts

The industry has also experienced a further sustained period of low wind since 16 December 2021, which is expected to continue until Christmas. Current wind levels are approximately 33% of seasonal norms and the impact of this shortfall has been material across the industry.

These changed conditions are expected to adversely impact full year profits by approximately a further GBP3m, since guidance given in our last update to the market on 25 November 2021."

and...


"We urge the UK Government to support the industry at large in navigating these short-term challenges to protect bill-payers and those that serve them." "


Ugly stuff.

All imo
DYOR

[talkman2] 22/12/2021 14:38

What will their production be ?

[talkman2] 22/12/2021 14:37

What cash will they be generating at the current price of Gas when they go into production?

[aimmafia] 21/12/2021 17:11

45p on first gas with a move towards 60p I suspect

[nina65] 21/12/2021 11:48

Gas prices ,wow wow….

[papillon] 19/12/2021 12:29

It's getting really bad on the gas front. Might have to wear thermal underwear and an overcoat whilst sitting indoors watching the TV. 🤣🤣

[marvelman] 17/12/2021 13:38

Well its been a very long wait Sphere and funds could possibly have been used to achieve more in other stocks during that period. As you have said the risk profile now is almost zero for first gas but I am really waiting (and hoping) more for a takeout. Certainly pleased the board rejected an offer of 20p a while back although not so pleased at the time. Again, pleased to see you and your contributions here.

[sphere25] 17/12/2021 12:40

Thank you marvelman.

You have all done better than me so well done to all early buyers here :-)

Hopefully not too late to the party!

[marvelman] 17/12/2021 10:58

Good timing Sphere and pleased to see you here..but where have you been!! :-))

[papillon] 16/12/2021 15:15

👍 Warren Buffet agrees with you, CB7