Investika Di Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 24/10/2007 02:59

nghomi, "As to Berong, it does not matter what is the cause of the stockpile."

i disagree on this point, because if the problem is that buyers cannot be found then its a potentially serious matter, but i doubt that to be the case in a market crying out for nickel, notwithstanding the slight build up in inventories. on the other hand if the stockpile is due to lack of transport then that can be sorted out in due course.

just lurking here, my main interest is tmc.

[peroman] 23/10/2007 19:19

nghomi, stemis

Many thanks for going into details!

As for stockpiled ore - if you look at it from another view: BNC can afford not to sell it at any price, ie. they are (should be) cash positive and probably self sustainable at this level and at this point of time...
Of course that is only if the reason is NOT the logistics problems of buyers as stated by Konil.
Best to wait it out...

[nghomi] 23/10/2007 19:06

I think the convertable notes could dilute the share price by 18% at best. I am assuming that 9.5% bearing interest would be also added to total borrowing.

After four years, we would have $14.4m or 2.6m shares which is approximately 18% of the current total shares. Considering this issue, one may say that IVK is only discounted by 12% of its assets. But again, IVK would probably invest this new funding wisely in a new venture or making existing ones more valuable so it won't be appropriate to discount the shares for this new issues.

====================================================


ISSUE OF CONVERTIBLE NOTE





28 September 2007



The Directors of Investika Ltd ("Investika" or the "Company") the investment
company in the mining finance industry with a focus on pre-production emerging
resource opportunities have resolved to issue a AUS $10 million unsecured
convertible Note with a term of four years and bearing interest at 9.5%. At the
conversion date, the Note must be converted into fully paid ordinary shares in
the Company at a price per share which will be the lower of AUS $5.50 or 80% of
the weighted average market price at the conversion date.

The issuance of the Note is subject to formal legal documentation and approval
at a general meeting of shareholders.

Full details will be provided in the notice of meeting.

[nghomi] 23/10/2007 18:36

konil,
I think the market has already discounted IVK's shares by some 30%. So the upside will be very high and it could be very sharp. On the other hand any downside could be avoided as it is already discounted for all those potential downsides.

As to Berong, it does not matter what is the cause of the stockpile. The end results is that we cannot grow the production if we cannot ship ore. We would be stuck with 700k to 1.5m tone ore production rate per year . Once again, the market has discounted this for both IVK and TMC so the downside is limited imo.

[stemis] 23/10/2007 17:56

nghomi,

2) My analysis values the BNC element of TMC at £56M (the difference being £9M cash + £10M for Ipilan) so a bit less than you, but its all a guess so no right or wrong answer.

3) My value of TQN/Tommy is £4.3M (mkt cap) x 49/51 plus £1.8M for IVKs shares in TQN plus £1.5M loan to TQN = £7.4M so a bit more than you.

4) UEP shares valued at £1.3M. BNZ at £2.2M.

[konil] 23/10/2007 17:42

nghomi et al, interesting discussion.

as regards nghomi's point about the bnc ore stockpile "I am concerned about the 140k tone of ore awaiting to be shipped. I am inclined to think that BNC is struggling to find buyers at a good price."

i tend to think this is more likely to be due to the tight market for cargo ships of the right type in that part of the world given the heavy demand for shipping of all sorts. i will readily admit i have not researched this but i know someone who runs a ship conversion and servicing business, operating in mumbai and singapore, and they simply cannot find enough staff to handle the volume of new business.

[nghomi] 23/10/2007 17:24

peroman and SteMiS,
IVK valuation is very complex to say the least imo. Also the investment companies are always traded at a discount to their assets. We have this converable bonds in sight as well which could dilute ~10% of the company. But I summerise my thinking in deriving the current values of various IVK's assets:

2) BNC = ~£22m. IVK owns 18% of BNC. I have "guessed" the value of BNC based on TMC market cap of £75m. I have put BNC part of TMC at £66m and TMC has 54% of BNC, then we get £22m for IVK's share.

3) Las Pascualas: I have used TNQ market cap to guess Las Pascualas value. TNQ owns 51% of Las Pascualas and market cap is £4.0m. So 70% of Las Pascualas cannot be less than £5.5m

4) imo UEP is a write off at the moment (based on what is announced by UEP) last Friday. It is unknown how much UEP needs to re-do phase I of feasibility study. BNZ is a fully funded company with several million pounds funding. So 40% of it is probably at least £1.5m.

I have tried to be conservative in my valuations but I have to say that the credit crunch could potentially dilute IVK's assets imo. Perhaps this is one of the reasons for 30% discount on the share price.

One more thing to be cautious about is the BNC project. I am concerned about the 140k tone of ore awaiting to be shipped. I am inclined to think that BNC is struggling to find buyers at a good price. Perhaps this is another reason to discount IVK's share price on ( TMC + BNC).

Overal, imo IVK's share price is not expensive at these levels provided we do not see a slowdown in Chinese economy in coming years.

[kimboy2] 23/10/2007 17:18

I expect I am going over old ground here but how did you value Berong ?

[domwilliams] 23/10/2007 17:08

SteMiS,

Do you know how many BNC shares are in issue? I can't find anything in TMC accounts, or Investika Interims.

Rgds,

[stemis] 23/10/2007 16:59

nghomi,

My analysis is a little different from your but the outcome is pretty much the same. At current prices I make IVK share price about 29% discount to the sum of its parts.

Actually I make its interests in TMC and berong to be worth about 188p, so pretty much the rest (TQN, Tommy, UEP, BNZ) is in for free.

[peroman] 23/10/2007 15:35

nghomi, can you go in more details as how you calculated 2), 3) and 4) ?

[nghomi] 22/10/2007 17:03

It seems that the letter of Intent is only relevant to TMC. Of course we own 11% of TMC. So the 1.2 mty may not be necessary from BNC but I cannot see where else it could be coming from.

imo IVK's valuation is very complex but if we assume the following we are still a good value:
1) 11% of TMC = £8m
2) 18% of BNC ~= £22m
3) Las Pascualas = £5.5m
4) BNZ and UMC = £1.5m

So the asset value is ~ £37m. Currenly the market is valuing IVK at ~30% discount to the asset value. I have no idea if this is a fair discount or not.

[strow] 22/10/2007 08:48

oz prices reflect last sell/buy price,so linked on an individual trade basis- i.e you can have buying all day,but if the last trade was a sell,the closing price will reflect this

[red river 1] 22/10/2007 08:43

Can someone explain to me how shares in this company traded on the AIM can move in the opposite direction to those traded on the ASX. Ref the 10% rise in Aus last week and slight fall here? Not experienced in jointly traded stock and just wondered how it works!

[silentaction] 22/10/2007 08:03

Investika Ltd
22 October 2007

INVESTIKA LTD
('the Company')

22 October 2007


Please find below the announcement made by Toledo Mining Corporation plc
('Toledo Mining') regarding a letter of intent signed by Toledo Mining through
its partly owned subsidiary. Investika Ltd holds 10.8% of the issued share
capital of Toledo Mining.


Enquiries to:

Chrisilios Kyriakou, Chief Executive Officer
Investika Ltd
Telephone: [phone]

James Joyce /David Porter
WH Ireland Limited
Telephone: [phone]



Toledo Mining Corporation plc
('Toledo Mining' or the 'Company')

Letter of Intent to Enter into Nickel Pig Iron Production


The Directors of Toledo Mining Corporation plc (AIM:TMC) advise that the
Company, through a partly owned subsidiary, has entered into a Letter of Intent
(LOI) with two Chinese companies to form a Joint Venture (JV) to investigate the
acquisition of steel making facilities to produce nickel pig iron and stainless
steel within China.

An existing integrated steel plant in Guangxi Province has been identified as a
possible target for the JV. The JV partners intend to perform detailed due
diligence over the next six months before making a decision on acquiring the
assets. The steel plant is approximately three years old, well maintained,
environmentally responsible, and currently produces hot rolled steel bars and
billets for the domestic Chinese market. The assets comprise three blast
furnaces (the largest being 380 cubic meters in capacity), sintering machines,
residual heat power plant, oxygen plant, railway access, wharf access and land.

It is proposed to convert part or all of the steel plant to the production of
nickel pig iron, and eventually stainless steel. The technology to convert the
plant would be provided by one of the JV partners. It is estimated that the
plant will require approximately 1.2 million tonnes of nickel laterite ore
feedstock per year. It is the intention of Toledo Mining to enter into a long
term contract to supply all the plant's feedstock requirements on prevailing
commercial terms.

The proposed market for nickel pig iron and stainless steel remains firm, and
the pricing structure more attractive than simply supplying nickel laterite ore
to the market.

Mr George Bujtor, CEO of Toledo Mining, commented, 'The initial entry into China
allows us to readily assess the technology, cost structure and environmental
performance of the integrated steel operations. Based on the knowledge gained,
it is the intention of Toledo Mining to build a similar steel plant in the
Philippines. The proposed JV satisfies the Company's strategy of adding value
to its large laterite resource base in the Philippines.'

George Bujtor, CEO of Toledo Mining is a member of the Australasian Institute of
Mining and Metallurgy and is a qualified person that has reviewed and approved
the technical information contained in this announcement.

[nghomi] 21/10/2007 14:44

Looking at TQN's annual report, I cannot see TMC's major holding on 31st of Dec, see


It seems that IVK held 32.5% even on 31st of Dec 2006. There are a few nominee acounts and TMC could have had holding through a nominee account.

TQN raised £1.3M back in August 06 and Investika increased her holding in TQN then. Coincidantly, the share price more than doubled in a short space of time after this fund raising. I suspect that we could see simular story when TQN raised new funding for Las Pascualas.

The answer to SteMis' comment with regards to the takeover offer for TQN, I would guess it could be to do the fact that TNQ is not a fully listed company.

[stemis] 20/10/2007 16:47

18-10-07

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Tarquin Resources PLC said it is confident that it will be able to raise additional funds to meet its commitments when required for the Las Pascualas project in Chile. The mining company began a planning a bankable feasibility study at Las Pascualas in July and a drilling campaign has been planned. Tarquin said it has acquired water rights, adequate for Las Pascualas' needs, and has begun discussions on power supply. The group added strong copper and molybdenum anomalies found at Las Nipas, a tenement close to Las Pascualas, will be drill tested after completion of the infill drilling at Las Pascualas. Tarquin also said it has acquired an area near Las Pascualas named Punto Colorado, which shows copper mineralization.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There hasn't been a post on the TQN board since 11th July 2007. TQN market cap now £4.1M.

[stemis] 20/10/2007 16:43

Why have IVK not had to make a bid for TQN. I thought once through 30% any increase over 1% caused a mandatory bid under SE rules?

[nghomi] 20/10/2007 16:32

What is puzzeling me is that IVK has increased her holding by 13% in TNQ but we have not seen any RNS's stating that who was the seller. It seems that TMC has sold 6.5% stake but where is the other 6.5% coming from?

On positive side, one may think that IVK is probably taking advantage of weak TNQ's share price. On the other hand if you consider the IVK's loan to TNQ, one could say that IVK almost owns 100% percent of TNQ. I don't know it is a positive or negative thing but it certainly shows that IVK's directors are very confident about Las Pascualas project.

Considering directors' acute judgment on Berong project and TMC's 11% stake, I would tend to think that invetors have understimated the potential of Las Pascualas project.

[nghomi] 20/10/2007 15:59

Hi SteMiS,

IVK owns 70% of Las Pascualas now. It won't probably change IVK's valuation but even in this depressed market, based on TNQ market cap, 70% of Las Pascualas should be around £5.5m.


Please update the header as IVK owns 40% of TQN now, see



==========
RNS Number:4126F
Tarquin Resources PLC
09 October 2007


TARQUIN RESOURCES PLC
("Tarquin" or the "Company")


NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS IN SHARES


The Company announces that on 8 October 2007, it was notified of the following
holding:

Investika Ltd holds a beneficial interest in 6,141,340 ordinary shares in the
Company, which represents 40.1 per cent of the issued share capital of
15,322,575 ordinary shares in the Company.
==============================

[buetowa] 18/10/2007 12:38

Berong - slower than some wished for but their is 140,000 ton stockpile available for shipping and the price of nickel is steadily increasing on daily basis. That means more profit when it is actually sold to me!

[strow] 18/10/2007 10:52

Some good results from belitung in there,confirming the sort of grades that have been previously drilled-6 disappointing holes-well i suppose you cant hit the sweet spots every time!lp making progress-nothing spectacular i agree,but nothing unexpected-clearly berong is slow,but the resource is not going away-just need that vap up and running :-)a little wait i think

[peroman] 18/10/2007 09:42

Kiwi
Yeah, on volume of 930...

But nevertheless I feel quite neutral about this - nothing spectacular, nothing scary. Anybody else got an opinion on the news?

[7kiwi] 18/10/2007 07:51

Quartley Report out. Seems to have gone down well in Oz.