Invesco Bond Income Plus Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 31/8/2021 13:27

Those are some really good questions and observations. I'm struggling with any answers. Here are some thoughts.

I was convinced 6 months ago there was going to be a long term inflationary cycle, but now I'm not convinced. Sure it might go on another year but I see taxation rises starting to eat into disposable income. Also, the inefficiencies due to Covid will start to get resolved.

If there was a time to buy inflationary linked stuff, it was 6 months ago. I don't know if now is too late or there's still far more to run in the inflationary trade. A quick look at the chart on TFIF shows you could have bought around 106p. And that's the problem. The volatility or capital movement is outweighing the underlying return.

One could argue for buying many of the property REITs. There are still discounts to NAV, but I have the feeling that market is going to be under pressure with rent renewals. One could argue for residential ABS but I think once the stamp duty holiday disappears prices are at very best going to be static. And some of these funds including TFIF hold this sort of stuff. They are much more heavily geared than BIPS or HDIV or NCYF or SMIF and any increase in non-payment of mortgates is going to hurt them.

Having said that if you trawl through all these, they are probably some bargains left. The question is whether in any downturn the market will sift out the good stocks or whehter they will all fall regardless. It's hard to say.


I'm sticking with BIPS but having said that if I can sell for NAV I'll start scaling out. I don't actually have an alternative home for my money if that happens and I'll have to wait for something to come along. Given NCYF and SMIF are trading at decent premiums I might be prepared to stick with BIPS until we reach a premium of a couple of percent. If something came along which looked "cheap" I might change my mind on a dime.

[marktime1231] 31/8/2021 11:44

Finally managed to read that story. It says TFIF includes floating rate investments which sounds like a good idea if we are facing an inflationary cycle, but it is not obvious which those are the top holdings are just listed as RMBS. A very different trust to the monthly paying SMIF where I am invested and which holds mostly high yielding Perps eg fixed.

That has got me wanting to search for real asset-backed trusts which have good yield and which include floating rate loans eg are exposed to the upside of inflation.

Or do we just leave it to the likes of BIPS to manage the cycle by adjusting the portfolio for us?

[cwa1] 27/8/2021 15:59

Blimey. That actually works :-)

[domenicpalmieri] 27/8/2021 15:57

If you press the escape button as the page is loading on The Telegraph you'll be able to read it :)

[marktime1231] 27/8/2021 12:04

Nor me, pity, should be a good read. That list of mostly debt investment and some equity trusts looks like a good set of recommendations for income diversified across property, life sciences and asset finance. Yield ranges 5.7-7.7%. And, as the article title suggests, it is plausible they will be expected to perform whether or not we are entering an inflationary cycle. Did they mention EAT, not much prospect of long term asset growth in those apart from the equity segment of Biopharma.

[cc2014] 27/8/2021 11:13

Thanks for that. I don't have access either and I can't circumvent the security no matter how hard I try.

Hopefully the article will provide a push after the long weekend too.

[cwa1] 27/8/2021 09:45

Mention in The Telegraph apparently((I don't have access) Mentions a a few of the usual suspects( #RECI; #BPCR; #BIPS; #TFIF) as being buys apparently:-

[panshanger1] 23/8/2021 10:45

189 still yields 5.9 % and board have confirmed that level will be maintained for 3 years

[cc2014] 23/8/2021 09:37

189p to sell today, suggesting to me another decent sized buy order has gone through which has not been published yet.

I'm wondering how many sellers there are around at this price.

[cc2014] 20/8/2021 12:17

I thought we were there last night with some decent AT trades going through at 189 and 190p and we got the follow through this morning with another decent O trade buy at 191p.

I thought the sellers had got the message that the buyers were willing to come to them and pay full price.

We will see what happens in the last hour as yesterday as that's when the buying came in then.

Hard to say whether these are long term sellers dripping their stock into the market or just a few who bought at around 185p who are happy to take their 3-5p and move on. A decent amount of volume did go through in the 183-186p area so there are bound to be a few sellers.

Fingers crossed.

[cwa1] 19/8/2021 17:27

Not too bad a UT with 7,150 going through at 190

[cc2014] 18/8/2021 12:27

Jeepers, this is slow going. Buyers of any size paying full offer, yet bid not rising presumably as MM's are happy enough as they are.

I'm sure the bid would rise but there's just one too many sellers (as seems to forever be the case) although they are getting well within the spread which is a big change from 2 weeks ago.

[cc2014] 16/8/2021 16:37

Based on the trades at 16:29 I'm hopeful we are on our way tomorrw.

[panshanger1] 16/8/2021 14:13

Normal service resumed hereExpect this to get to NAV over time

[cc2014] 12/8/2021 10:15

Good morning,

We are back to price inversion against this morning. The spread is 186.06-186.03

I'm wondering which MM is holding this back from rising but L2 gives me no clue.

[cwa1] 11/8/2021 12:45

Spotted that after hours issue at SMIF, reasonable sized chunk too

[cc2014] 11/8/2021 12:38

I see SMIF issued another 500k shares yesterday at 4% above NAV and higher than the prevailing market price.

[cc2014] 11/8/2021 11:13

We now have price inversion. I can sell at 185.7575 and buy at 185.74. It's been like that for an hour now at various price.

At least one MM wants stock so that's good news.

[cwa1] 11/8/2021 10:32

I certainly think that it is decent value at current levels but I THINK I've got enough for my relatively modest risk profile. Maybe room for a small addition, we'll see.

I see sellers and overhangs in stocks as an advantage normally, it allows you to get in at a price you wouldn't otherwise manage-although it can be frustrating if it drags on for aeons and VERY annoying if the exiting holder knew more than you did and is just a rat leaving a sinking ship :-)

PS: I've stalked you across to HDIV CC2014!

[cc2014] 11/8/2021 10:11

I've got enough now. If it's goes up to 190p + which is where I think it should be I'll sell a few and keep my core holding. If it doesn't go up I'll collect the dividends and be happy with that.

Clearly it's not going to go up if every day someone appears and decides to sell a bunch of shares. I assume they are selling BIPS to buy something else and as they see a bargain elsewhere and aren't bothered about the poor price (imho lol) they are getting on BIPS as they think they can make it up elsewhere. It's all "risk on" at the moment.

[cc2014] 11/8/2021 09:16

um.. took some more on that small spike down against. This time the pattern was different. Let's see what happens later.

All very hard to call. Someone dumped another lump on HDIV yesterday afternoon. The flow is just like here. Lost of buys against the flow of one or two determined sellers.

[cc2014] 10/8/2021 12:01

Based on the timing of 33.7k the trade at 9:03 at a price of 185.42 it's likely to be a buy as it was about a penny above the prevailing offer at the time and it's hard to see it as a sell as the share price hasn't been high enough.


I'm feeling comfortable now. What we do know is that if the price drops a couple of pence from here there is plenty of buying support. How many sellers are out there and at what price is a guessing game, although I'm minded to believe there is still a seller going at 185p although he's in no hurry and happy to let the volume come to him

[panshanger1] 10/8/2021 11:24

Still 1 large trade 33k gone through

[hindsight] 10/8/2021 10:14

Hope not here, wanted to buy more, as long as its seller forcing discount out and not assets in trust in trouble

[cwa1] 10/8/2021 09:50

Certainly hope so-but won't be relaxing just yet :-)