Inveresk Share Discussion Threads

[overmars] 18/5/2007 08:47

When are the results due..they are late ??

[ptolemy] 08/5/2007 13:49

Don't you just love the title ofthis thread? "Inveresk - Exciting Turnaround Play"

Still results should be soon. An opportunity for a modicum of excitment!

[pa disaster] 08/2/2007 21:14

No, Leith is in Edinburgh itself, whereas IVS land is over the other side of the River Forth (& also another plot in Denny, Stirlingshire)

[arthur_lame_stocks] 30/1/2007 17:07

I saw this in the Telegraph at the weekend. Are they talking about the same area that IVS owns land in?

[davidosh] 09/1/2007 12:47

There is an excellent review of the company over on TMF for those interested

[papercrack] 13/12/2006 18:24

Would you live next to a wood yard, the value of the land will be reduced.

[ptolemy] 13/12/2006 09:05

The proposal isn't for a wholly housing development.

I'm told the plan says "to transform the paper mill near Falkirk into high-quality housing and a business area"

[papercrack] 12/12/2006 17:53

The labour members have opposed the plans for wholly housing development.

[ptolemy] 12/12/2006 11:27

Not sure if this was posted, but I think papercrack may be leading us astray. More info please papercrack to substantiate your comments.

Text

PLANS TO TRANSFORM FALKIRK PAPER MILL
21 November 2006
Plans to transform a former paper mill near Falkirk into high-quality housing and a business area have been unveiled.

The plans for Carrongrove Paper Mill in Denny came after concerns that it could no longer be marketed wholly as an industrial site. The mill's closure in 2005, following an industry downturn, marked the end of the area's rich industrial past.

The plans, which also include a hydro electric scheme by the River Carron, will be considered by Falkirk Council.

At the heart of the development plans would be the conversion of the Category B, Carrongrove House, built in 1862, into homes. The plans were outlined in a report by council development chiefs.

The history of paper manufacture in Denny and along the River Carron dates back several hundred years. But after problems which saw the industry hit across the UK, mill owners Inveresk took the decision to shut down operations.

The council is also currently taking forward plans to redevelop the town's former Alcan aluminium plant as a business park.

[mjcrockett] 11/12/2006 18:51

Papercrack, What meeting? When? Which committee?

[papercrack] 11/12/2006 18:05

Yes it is the last meeting put everything on hold.
This is what happens with a hung council.

[quazie12] 10/12/2006 20:12

papercrack

Is that Falkirk Council ? I will try and get access to a copy of the Local Plan.

Q12

[papercrack] 10/12/2006 19:12

Local council want Carrongrove kept for industrial use.Plans on hold

[arthur_lame_stocks] 08/12/2006 11:53

Interesting development.

I wonder who Roba Securities are? They´re not listed at Companies House so presumably offshore somewhere.

[quazie12] 02/11/2006 17:25

mjc

As I said I did only a cursory at the last finals. I should update and go through interims. Will also look at council online planning. The tax credits issue sounds difficult. I think it is hard to apply losses from 1 area to another eg paper manuf losses to real estate etc but I not an expert and it may be argued that the real estate profits are the winding up of the trade the losses were incurred in.

I have a few architect/planning guru connections in the area and if I hear anything I will post here. Maybe we could swap some more detail direct.

Cheers

Q12

[mjcrockett] 02/11/2006 15:03

Q12, I am not sure that I completely agree with your workings, but I think you are coming to roughly the right answer. 30p is my target.

The pensions shortfall is small and could be wiped out if long term interest rates assumptions improve. I am still hopeful that something clever can be done to use some of the tax credit, which would be a bonus. Also, a return to profitability for the business as forecast in the interims is going to make a big difference to the price tag. So there are a few variables, but it's certainly worth more than 18p.

MJ

[quazie12] 02/11/2006 13:33

MJC

Last night I tried to put some figures together. Let's assume the company achieve a figure of £675k per acre (allowing for prof fees to get planning and affordable housing contributions). Lets say 90 acres in total is £60m. Without ref to financials I think that they have a figure of £10m for land for sale in balance sheet and another £10m in fixed assets. A crude calculation is to say that there will be a further £40m added to net assets which are currently £10m.

That's £50m divided by 140m shares or 35p a share if they develop the whole lot.

he pension shortfall is in the balance sheet already so there would just be the redundancy cost to factor in. Say that reducesthe price by a couple of pence then we are at 33p a share if everything goes to plan.

The company then becomes a bet on how much the residual value for the land will grow. With house sales price increases and build costs/developer profits neck and neck I don't see much improvement over the next 3/4 years.

I reckon we might be lucky to see 25/26p if there is good news.

What do you think ?

Q12

[mjcrockett] 02/11/2006 07:01

Q12, The development of the Inverkeithing site has always been seen as a multi-phase operation. If you trawl through the planning section of the Fife council's website, you will find some more detail on this. The Inveresk site is down for early development in the Fife plan.

Carrongrove is another matter. Here development should be more straightforward. Your £750K per acre sounds about right for housing here. I suspect land at the Somerset site may be of a similar value, but I think the mill is a listed building, so it is not a case of knock it all down and build houses. Whilst there would be some hefty costs to close the mill, the sale of the business and the machinery would more than cover that.

MJ

[quazie12] 02/11/2006 00:03

Am new to this bb but have been in and out of shares in this company in last 2 years largely off back of real estate possibilities. Falkirk site can be developed so could Somerset but I was big on the Inverkeithing site until I met with a Planning consultant one day about a year ago about another matter.

The conversation turned to the IVS site in Fife and he told me that he perceived there was a problem there. The council were keen on development as they also have land and they wish to unlock potential in conjunction with IVS and satisfy local plan housing requirements.

However there was also a neighbouring site owned by a commercial op.(Possibly Forth Ports) and that company had invested heavily into the site (from memory something to do with shipping). He felt it would be a number of years before they could be persuaded to sell up and therefore unlock the potential of Inverkeithing.

This might not be the case but I decided to bale at that time.

However I met a s/h yesterday who was bullish and thought i'd post my thoughts here. Anyone with a detailed view on this. I reckon with permissions the Falkirk area and Fife area would yield about 750k acre right now for housing I don't know about Somerset. What would costs of shutting down be re redundancy/pensions if it came to that ? I dont know.

Cheers


Q12

[mjcrockett] 16/10/2006 09:48

Papercrack, The following text is from the interim results issued on 29th September:- "Together with our professional advisers we have been working cohesively with Falkirk Council in establishing the site as one predominantly suitable for residential housing and which will significantly enhance the town of Denny. Following more than 20 expressions of interest which we reduced to 13 firm proposals from almost all the major national house building companies, we now have a clear vision as to how this site will be transformed in the future."

Now is it likely that 13 major national house builders would submit proposals for houses if the council did not want them?

MJ

[jonny wilkinson] 15/10/2006 21:08

papercrack - 15 Oct'06 - 15:58 - 869 of 869


I suggest you call IVS CEO to verify the correct position, i'm sure he'll be more than happy to discuss.

[papercrack] 15/10/2006 15:58

Rumours of no houses at carrongrove. Business Park planning option is what local council and planning want. Oh Hum was looking to buy a house on a toxic site.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 29/9/2006 18:11

I don´t know much about the development itself but it sounds like the sort of thing that the Scottish Executive will be keen to see go ahead.

[ptolemy] 29/9/2006 15:24

Again, we need patience but there nothing to suggest the strategy is going to come off the rails.

Main risk seems to be if Scottish Executive throw out the plans. Disappointing to read "Shareholders were updated at the Annual General Meeting in May 2006 since when there have been no further specific developments which need to be reported."

[arthur_lame_stocks] 29/9/2006 14:18

It does look as though they intend to offload all of the paper making operations and sell all of the land for development. Those 90 acres must be worth more than the current price suggests surely.