Inveresk Share Discussion Threads

[gorse] 12/12/2007 15:23

"There is lot of land which must be worth a lot of money if Inveresk can get planning permission to develop it."

Why don't they try a political donation or two?

[theoriginalred] 12/12/2007 15:17

I don't think the board want to sell any more land but will try to develop it themselves and that includes the St. Cuthberts Paper Mill site. If they can engineer a share buy back scheme at very low prices then they get the benefits of the land development not the shareholders. Now the Company is virtually debt free they do not have to worry about this or the banks any more.
There is lot of land which must be worth a lot of money if Inveresk can get planning permission to develop it.

[mjcrockett] 12/12/2007 14:04

I would think that it is likely that the board are talking to other organisations regarding the sale of their land and businesses. They said as much in the results statement. In this case, until anything is finalised, the board would not be in a position to make an announcement or for that matter buy any shares.

I would also think that a management buy out is most unlikely. They would not want the paper business because most of it is loss making and the land they are in the process of selling. There is not an on going business to buy out.


MJ

[quazie12] 12/12/2007 12:40

Theoriginalred

I tend to agree with you, the board do not seem to be prepared to keep shareholders up to speed on anything bar the minimum required by Stock Exchange.

I dont think the share price has dropped on much volume at all over the last year. The nervous holders have all gone, stopped out long ago, ther's nothing of interest for speculators and traders.

It makes me think they are trying to orchestrate something similar to a management buyout but this way its on the cheap

q

[theoriginalred] 05/12/2007 11:31

I see the share price is still dropping. I wonder when the board will make its move to buy up the shares (3.0 p ?) because at the rate they are being allowed to drop it won't be long before they get there !?
What about shareholder value we're not getting any !

[2fedup] 21/11/2007 13:00

the board seem to know what they are doing,but the bad news for them is that they have been found out by others.

[jonny wilkinson] 20/11/2007 22:13

quazie12 - 20 Nov'07 - 15:34 - 932 of 933

Concerns remain as to the Directors real intentions, that i've real problem with, seen it so often when Directors happy to watch shareprice fall and then take advantage to pitch an opportunist bid

[mjcrockett] 20/11/2007 18:41

Q12, I agree entirely that this is a Real Estate play. I do not know about advisors. The board seem to be very able. Their approach to the sale of Carrongrove, where they had most major builders putting in bids, seemed very successful to me. They also seem to be very good at negotiating with planning authorities, but who is actually doing this - I do not know.

MJ

[quazie12] 20/11/2007 15:34

mjc

difficult circumstances for the paper industry yes, but lets face it IVS is really a real estate play now. Prices for land have never been higher so I would say that opportunities abound if they can sort out their land holdings.

Did you get any feeling at the AGM that they have the right property advisors on board either on the Board of Directors itself or paid advisors like a firm of national surveyors ?

q12

[mjcrockett] 15/11/2007 17:36

The recent fall in the share price is not really management's fault in my view. OK, they could have given shareholders more information at times, but the fall is on low volume and is probably just a few PI's jumping ship. I went to the AGM a few weeks ago and was reasonably satisfied that management are doing the best they can in difficult circumstances. I am confident that the value here will out eventually - even bought a few more shares today.

MJ

[theoriginalred] 15/11/2007 11:57

Precisely.

TOR

[cockneyrebel] 15/11/2007 11:36

I gave up on these a year ago or so.

God I tried but I just don't believe the directors have a clue. They are either stupid or just too nice and don't want to make a load of workers redundant.

Paper companies like DS Smith, Cropper and Latham have all managed to turn their businesses around from the tough years they had 4-5 years ago but IVS. So much potential to realise value but I suspect the directors are just going to let value rot away on the vine.

CR

[cisk] 15/11/2007 10:37

JW, you have my support also. I gather that the team was 'supposed' to be meeting Charles Stanley but has put off the meetings so many times.

They need to be open with the shareholders - clearly no news is causing the price to drop. I personally think that there is value here - maybe 100% plus from current levels - but they need to sell the paper business and get planning permission sorted - and it doesn't help with credit crunches and house price drops happening...

Cisk

[theoriginalred] 15/11/2007 10:28

Try all the Inveresk employees who own shares but I doubt you'll get very far with the board because they run the Company as if its their own.
In fact they may be allowing the share price to drop so that they can buy back the shares cheaply.

[jonny wilkinson] 15/11/2007 09:52

As long term investor i'm appalled at performance of this stock, management have failed to deliver shareholder value, bid price this morning 9.75p.

Communications with shareholders is appalling, no research notes to best of my knowledge.

One must be very suspicious of whats going on behind scenes with this stock.

Frankly i'm considering setting up shareholder action group with view to seeking removal of current directors.

Any other frustrated shareholders willing to offer support .

[hybrasil] 02/10/2007 11:03

thank you quazie.

[quazie12] 02/10/2007 10:05

I posted on this subject last year.

Led to believe that to be able to unlock the value at Inverkeithing then the cooperation of Forth Ports is very much required.

Understand that they have a long term tenant on their site who has invested substantially for the long term. It would probably not be worth Forth Ports pursuing this with any great speed.

The Somerset site, it would be worth investigating whether the site is in the local plan as zoned for housing. As a brown field site it very possibly is but I for one cannot see the company achieving any further sales for some time.

I therefore value the company along the lines of a property company but with a
(for now) impaired land bank. 14p is probably fair value. At under 10p it is cheap. At that level I would anticipate some more director purchases and I would be accumulating for the longer term at that level too.

q12

[hybrasil] 02/10/2007 09:46

OK I'll go and see the sites.

[mjcrockett] 02/10/2007 08:51

Why would you assume any value as a multiple of the book value? The property assets on the books are valued on an existing use basis. If these sites were given planning permission their value would increase substantially. They could double, but they could quadruple. Also, I am not sure that is sensible to follow your logic and value this company as a property company. Property companies derive their income from rent and property development - IVS do not do that. Inveresk own property which they will sell in the not too distant future and then probably wind up the company - a completely different animal IMO.

MJ

[hybrasil] 01/10/2007 21:44

But go back to what I have been saying about property company share prices. They are now trading at massive discounts to NAV.

So here you have the added salt of the loss making business. I accept I have not got a clue as to the real "value" of these sites but assuming they are double book value then this share is still very dear.

[mjcrockett] 01/10/2007 13:31

Cisk, whilst agreeing with you that the company is undervalued, I think your 30P+ is perhaps a bit optimistic. The profits from the eventual property sales will attract tax at some point and this reduces the value somewhat. However, it is possible to buy shares today at a little over 13p and there is considerable upside at this price.

Ade13, I think 'active discussions' is all anyone will say officially. However, with the mill losing nearly £2m per year, I would have thought it is unlikely to survive for many months before something happens. There are effectively 2 separate paper divisions run from St Cuthberts. The major furniture paper business has an annual turnover of around £10m and is heavily loss making, while the artist paper business is profitable, but with only a turnover of £3m pa. Hence, the furniture paper business is the priority for disposal. All IMHO etc.

MJ

[ade13] 01/10/2007 12:45

Hi have the board given any time scale for ther paper mill in somerset?

[cisk] 01/10/2007 10:58

If the land in Somerset is 30+ acres, assuming a valuation north of 500k/acre, you're looking at a value almost in line with the current market cap. Throw in the site in Inverkeithing, plus asset disposals + the sale of the brand, less current liabilities, I have always assumed that the nav is north of 30p / share, giving 100% upside from now. Of course more detailed analysis is required.

Hybrasil, you are correct in looking at the current P&L the company is overvalued, but that's not the point of them - look at the assets underpinning the price and you will see the price is undervalued. The St Cuthberts site is situated in a superb area (I live about 50 mins from there). This is one share that has persuaded me to get off my butt and do some more detailed analysis, as if my assumptions are correct I see no reason not to increase my holding, not decrease it.

Cisk

[poacher45] 30/9/2007 10:16

I think you have been very helpfull to idiots mjcrockett.

[mjcrockett] 30/9/2007 09:31

hybrasil, yes I agree.

esmerelda, as they did with Carrongrove, Inveresk will only sell the brand and the order book and then close the St Cuthberts site down. In the results, the chairman's statement refers to the company's 'real estate portfolio' - this means Inverkeithing AND St.Cuthberts. Note also in the outlook section that the chairman says that they will 'continue to engage in active discussions'.

MJ