Internet Business Share Discussion Threads

[clueless] 21/6/2007 13:42

Now seems like a fun time to have a predict the share price competition.

What will be the share price on 21 June 2008?

My guess (and hence the reason I sold today) is 14p

[masurenguy] 21/6/2007 13:41

SteMiS - I'm afraid that credibility here has just been shot to pieces and the big fall in the sp, and the number of people selling, just verifies this further. The company is profitable and has cash but, if the confidence in its future direction and business management competence and credibility is lost, this will not hold up the valuation on its own.

There are several profitable AIM listed companies on PERs of 6 and 7 !

[cr4zyness] 21/6/2007 13:40

Stemis,

I understand what you are saying but you can have a great business but if you disregard the humble PI then the share price will suffer, it would be wise to remind these CEO's etc of that sometimes. ;)

[spacecowboy3] 21/6/2007 13:39

As I pointed out above it doesn't even say that H2 will be below MARKET expectations - only that t/o and profits will POTENTIALLY be lower than PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED BY THE BOARD.

We need to see some new broker's forecasts to know exactly what the impact of this is on MARKET expectations.

[68steve] 21/6/2007 13:37

He has to stop being an almost "one man band" and put trust in others to grow the business,it is Maz`s baby but at sometime you have to let go...

[stemis] 21/6/2007 13:37

It doesnt the share price speaks volumes, good luck

Sorry, but the share price only speaks for the sentiment of PI's not the performance of the business.

[cr4zyness] 21/6/2007 13:35

Stemis,

"Where does it say that profits are expected to be flat?"

It doesnt the share price speaks volumes, good luck

[stemis] 21/6/2007 13:33

Absolutely agree

You may agree but it doesn't make it true.

Where does it say that profits are expected to be flat?

[tonyr] 21/6/2007 13:32

Re jwe' comment, they've not stated that profits will be flat for 2 years, rather that:
"over the short and medium term the strategic focus will be on investing in the operating assets within the Company. This focus is likely to restrict profit maximisation over the next 24 months, however, the board believe that this strategic focus will maximise shareholder value in the medium term."

That's really quite different, although obviously not to the taste of everyone! They're saying that they're trading the pursuit of maximum short term profits for the bigger game of much greater longer term value. Which considering the sector they're in, is entirely feasible. A clear idea of what this strategy comprises is obviously required, together with a huge improvement in PR.

[masurenguy] 21/6/2007 13:32

"jwe - 21 Jun'07 - 13:23 - 2160 of 2163: With profits looking flat(at best) for 2 years i would suggest a pe of 10 is more than adequate so further to fall yet i`m afraid"

Absolutely agree !

What is more, the outcome of todays announcement and the way that this whole process has been mishandled, has created some really negative sentiment towards this share which will take both time and some really positive developments to counteract. The fact that this is the biggest loser (in percentage terms) in the market today just goes to underline this further.

[yump] 21/6/2007 13:25

Well, I broke one of my rules by not selling when the 'strategic review' was announced. Didn't buy them for a bid hope, bought them for growth, so why I didn't stick to the rules goodness only knows.

Will give the wife the power to sell from now on, based on the rules (which she never has a problem with) and I'll do the stock spotting and timing part of the deal.

Looks to me like a simple case of getting their knickers in a twist with too many initiatives and not enough obsessive pursuit of core business.

There's enough doubts for me to get out bit by bit. Seems to me there'll be a lot of 4p investors moving money out for quite a while ?

All getting a bit confused - have never liked having to read between the lines and second-guess and am not going to here. Enough is enough.

[stemis] 21/6/2007 13:24

Problem is we've pretty much been told that theres not going to be much positive news for the next 2 years

No we haven't. We've been told that they are going to restrict maximisation of profit over the next 2 years.

[muffinhead] 21/6/2007 13:24

bye bye Clueless

[jwe] 21/6/2007 13:23

With profits looking flat(at best) for 2 years i would suggest a pe of 10 is more than adequate so further to fall yet i`m afraid

[68steve] 21/6/2007 13:23

The thing i don`t get is Maz in the past left it till 2/3weeks before financial year end to let us know they are 5/10% ahead of market forecasts.Now only 2 months into H2 he announces potentially lower turnover and profit,rather premature don`t you think...

[clueless] 21/6/2007 13:20

Problem is we've pretty much been told that theres not going to be much positive news for the next 2 years so how does the share price go up in the short term.

Ok this isnt as bad as what happened to DGM but their price dropped 80% and stayed there ever since. Its not that unlikely that IBG will halve and stay there for 2 years.

Id prefer to invest in something else in the short term - EBTM for example looks like its coming together quite nicely now.

[muffinhead] 21/6/2007 13:20

"potentially be lower".....not a problem for long term investors.


Happy to see ibg buying in shares esp at this level which will increase earning per share

[spacecowboy3] 21/6/2007 13:13

Whilst I agree with some of the points that have been made about the way this has been communicated, I don't think the outcome of the strategic review is entirely unexpected (even if the magnitude of the share price fall is, by me at least).

At the AGM Maz made it pretty clear that he wanted to invest in some new project that would increase earnings significantly in the medium to long-term, but would mean a hit in the short-term. I suspect that if he'd found a buyer for IBG at the right price he would have funded this project himself (with some VC backing) as a new entity.

Since a buyer wasn't found (and I never thought that was anywhere near a certainty) he's now going to do the project within IBG.

AFAIAC the only totally new info today is this -

"However, the board cautions that both turnover and profits in the second half will potentially be lower than previously anticipated by the board due to the delayed launch of new advertising products."

Note that the reference point here is "previously anticipated by the BOARD" - not the market. So I guess we'll have to wait for the Brokers to update their forecasts before we find out how much of a profits warning this really is.

On the information we have at the moment it seems to me that the fall in the share price is overdone.

[stemis] 21/6/2007 13:12

Indeed but its driven by small PI's dumping their stock at any price. Company is now on a 2007 P/E of little more than 10. That's for a growing company with cash in the bank.

[muffinhead] 21/6/2007 13:11

Interim results should be released now without further delay to bring some objective criteria to the market.


At 18.5p, we are trading on 12.3 times last years results.


Not selling at this level as looks fair value and would expect results at similar or slightly higher level.

[grevis] 21/6/2007 13:04

The MMs must be loving this. They've just made a killing and must be reading your comments with glee.

[68steve] 21/6/2007 13:04

You have a good point tonyr but i would like to think Maz has more integrity than that...

[liarspoker] 21/6/2007 13:04

No, I've been out for about 6 months or so.

Edit: Actually less, 4 months may be.

[deanroberthunt] 21/6/2007 13:03

Liar....don't you hold here anymore?