International Medical Devices Share Discussion Threads

[keyboard] 26/2/2003 20:51

NJP:

In present market conditions can you really blame anyone for
taking quick profits.
I must confess, the way things are going one is inclined to get
in and out of all the stocks one holds, until the situation has
stabilised, which won't happen until the war situation is clarified,
one way or another. At the moment the political situation is clouding
the whole market and all stocks, good or bad, are suffering, sometimes
dragging the whole sector with them. We live in uncertain times.

[njp] 26/2/2003 19:04

Shorters getting excited again. I'd love them to get caught out on this one but it seems they're onto a safe bet 'cos of lack of buyers. Looks like there's bargains to be had in a few days time, which could net a nice short term return if the results are as I expect them to be.

[keyboard] 19/2/2003 00:01

Boadicea:

I don't see why you think it "has got away"! Quite the contrary imo.
NJP and I thought 210-220 would be a good price to buy,
add or accumulate, and when it got to below 190, I decided
to return, and even with the rise over the last two days,
I think it is still worth considering, as historically 220-260
has been its range in quieter times. I might seriously
consider buying a few more before it gets to 205.

[njp] 18/2/2003 11:31

boadicea

So many shares gain one day and give it back the next that I guess we're all much, much more cautious in our comments. 200p is also a big psychological barrier. If it holds ground we may see it power ahead in the week before results - world events permitting. Results should well justify the current price and, as superrod says, there's a nice divvy as well.

[superrod] 17/2/2003 21:57

said a dozen times and will say again.......this is an ace share. good prospects and a DIVI which cushions the fall. had 20k once for £1.11. wish i had the gift of hindsight

[boadicea] 17/2/2003 21:38

Good recovery to the 200p region today - I'm surprised that no-one else has commented but the BB's generally are exceptionately quiet at present. From my viewpoint I had hoped to add around the 180p mark when it looked like the downward momentum might hold for a few days longer. But this now looks like one that got away -It always does when it's bounced quickly off its low! So I'll be satisfied with what I've got - unless it gives me another chance.
Good hunting for the other followers of this one.

[keyboard] 13/2/2003 20:49

NJP:

Was going to wait until B-Day (Blix) tomorrow before returning to INT
but decided to do so today. Three year low and even if, as suggested by
boadicea, the price should fall further, though I think the reversal has
started, I have bought for the long-term, so I am not going to worry,
as I have never made a loss with INT. If anything I have sold out too
soon in the past. This is one I first bought at 59, and the highs of the
last three years, even after 9/11 convince me that INT should be
back on track soon.
Did you know that in France, where people generally shun generics,
but where health costs are quite high and rising, even though healthcare is
better than ours,the powers that be are trying to make generics
more widely available and acceptable, and that INT already has a
presence there?
B-Day might bring some nasty surprides but I am optimistic about INT.
GSK results yesterday were, on the whole, uninspiring, I think, and
with so many patents expiring soon or due to expire soon, generics
are going to have a field day in the years ahead.

[edbassett] 12/2/2003 11:29

Will be buying again soon

Once results come out we will see 230 again within days

shorters having a good go, not sufficient volume to worry me though

[njp] 12/2/2003 01:11

keyboard

You and I aren't alone in waiting for the right moment on INT. The shorters may be making good profits but are delivering us a bargain. The wise heads amongst them will aim to switch sides too and make a few bucks the other way, which should accentuate the recovery.

boadicea

I was very much of the same mind as you but took a small s/b position at 226p in case it bounced a bit. Too hasty. When it fell to £2 the worry as always was that it might plunge if it broke that important mark and the absence of bold buying - given the present market - has made it so easy for the shorters. I guess the next target is around 170p so your suggested limit looks good. From my knowledge of the company and its fundamentals, profits should be on track and the wild comments the shorters are using to justify the current fall are well wide of the mark. They've made a well judged play purely on momentum and sentiment surrounding the likes of Boots, Unichem etc and are profiting from the reluctance of buyers due to current market sentiment.

The company is stronger than it's ever been but I suspect that there's a bit of re-rating going on as the market gloom continues to build. This may well restrict the prospective p/e ratio to around 10, but this will be plenty enough for me to recover my small s/b loss sometime this year - plus a handsome profit on any further bets placed sub 180p.

[boadicea] 11/2/2003 20:59

I originally had this marked as a buy if it dipped below 220p, but given market conditions I revised this to 200p. So we're now at 185/190p and do I act?? The unexpectedness of the drops this week looks worrying particularly when the market today is well up - Who knows something that is not general knowledge? However, faint heart never ... etc..... so I'll probably leave a limit on at about 175/180p for a couple of days and see what happens. Results due in 3 or 4 weeks (does anyone have precise date yet?) and I hope shorters will want to stand clear of that! I just don't see this co getting into serious trouble in the near future, all imho and dyor, of course.
Boad.

Ps. Maybe those MM's are just shaking the tree to pick up some stop-loss sales prior to the run up to the results. Am I cynical?
You bet!

[keyboard] 11/2/2003 15:53

NJP:

Totally agree with you and must say the only thing preventing me from buying now at these levels is what you have stated so eloquently. But I feel this is
a safe share for investors, prepared to show some patience. On the other hand, I am holding fire until after Friday...Blix and all that!

[njp] 11/2/2003 15:31

keyboard

Shorters are having a field day at the moment. Just check out the PBB traders thread. They've all jumped on the bandwagon! From the chart I'd guess they're aiming for 170p next stop.

As for fundamental reasons for the decline, other than the general state of the market, people have quoted the OFT pharmacy ruling (a complete red herring as far as INT is concerned) and are now saying generic margins are being savaged. My sources tell me that trading will meet expectations - 21.5p eps or thereabouts for 2002 - and analysts are looking for 24p for 2003.

I guess a shorters frenzy has always been on the cards since the price dipped below £2 but I'm expecting it to bite back with a vengeance near results time if the profits meet target and the outlook statement confirms anything near what the analysts are looking for in 2003. PE will be around 8 at 170p which looks far too cheap for a company as sound and as sheltered as INT.

[keyboard] 11/2/2003 13:36

NJP:

INT looks very interesting again but how much further can it drop?
Can't find any explanation for the recent falls, apart from
the general malaise in the market! Both INT and FER
have declined recently, though FER seems to be stirring again?

[njp] 18/1/2003 01:32

keyboard

No reason why independant community pharmacists should worry if they're on top of their business but I guess some of the weaker brethren will fold as some business will inevitably be lost to convenience shopping in the supermarkets. Those who can't adapt will certainly have a tougher time as the supermarkets will join the big pharmacy chains in beating them on price on OTC items. Prescription business though should largely stay as it is with community pharmacists sited near surgeries.

Just wondering, in the absence of an announcement from the company, when the penny will drop that INT won't suffer and indeed could well benefit from the proposed changes. That'll be the time to pick up a bargain.

[keyboard] 17/1/2003 20:35

NJP:

As you will no doubt have seen, all the news bulletins tonight carried extensive coverage of the proposals. Personally, I see no problems re INT
and I see no reason why small pharmacies cannot exist side by side along
the big supermarkets,which have their own pharmacies as they do in small towns in France. Of course, the French health system has a different
regime which is beneficial for such pharmacies,but the point is they
don't find it difficult to cohabit with the big supermarkets, which are often
outside such towns. In some small French towns, with, say, 15000
inhabitants, one often sees 8 or 10 pharmacies.It is a different story in cities and biggish towns.
Personally, I think our pharmacies have had a good run for their money
and any competition should make them sit up and take notice and extend the
range of items they offer. The German 'Drogerie' and 'Apotheke'
are examples of what can be achieved in this sector.

I think you are right in your assessment of the advantages these
proposals offer companies like INT, but as you say, in the short term the price may be held back for a while.

[njp] 17/1/2003 19:15

The following RNS posted against Alliance Unichem (AUN) includes some comment on the impact on wholesalers. The view is there might be a little extra pressure on margins due to the grocer chains being tough negotiators, though opportunities exist in the longer term. AUN stated they 'saw opportunities for growth' in the proposals. Again, my thoughts are that INT's prescription business should be much more shielded from the competition effect than OTC business and that deregulation offers new opportunities.

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Alliance UniChem PLC were weaker in early afternoon
trade, albeit coming back off lows, having reversed some solid opening gains
following news that the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has called for the
liberalisation of the UK pharmacy market, dealers said.
However, Alliance UniChem's German peer, Gehe AG -- also a big player in the
UK pharmacy market -- managed to hold on to its modest gains, with the move
having been very much expected.
At 1.31 pm, Alliance UniChem shares in London were 4 pence lower at 452,
having dropped back to 21 pence in the wake of the OFT announcement, well below
an early peak of 435.
At the same time, Gehe shares on Frankfurt's Xetra were 0.78 eur higher at
38.78.
In its report published this morning, the OFT said it is recommending that
regulations currently controlling entry to the pharmacy industry should be
lifted to allow any registered pharmacy with qualified staff to dispense
National Health Service (NHS) prescriptions.
UK government ministers will have to publish a response to the OFT
recommendations within 90 days.
In a first reaction to the OFT news, Schroder Salomon Smith Barney pointed
out that, until now, the number of pharmacy licences in the UK has been limited
to approximately 12,500, thereby preventing competition from supermarket chains.
The broker said, with a deregulation of the market, it expects the total
number of pharmacies in the UK to increase by around 12 pct to 14,000 in the
short term and then decline again to close to 10,000 as a number of poorly
performing pharmacies start closing.
Schroder Salmon added that, as a result, while it believes both Alliance
UniChem and Gehe should benefit from today's announcement in the longer term,
the broker expects them to face a difficult market environment in the short term
as competition increases.
The broker said Alliance UniChem and Gehe currently own 773 and 1,345
pharmacies in the UK respectively, and deregulation would mean they will have to
make significant investments in order to retain their market shares.
Schroder Salomon also added that while today's OFT announcement only
directly concerns the retail pharmacy sector, it believes there may also be a
mildly negative effect on pharmacy wholesaling margins in the UK.
Indeed, the broker said, in its view, the announcement effectively paves the
way for supermarket chains to enter the retail pharmacy market, and it expects
these groups to be tougher negotiators than most of the independent pharmacies
that are served by Alliance UniChem and Gehe's wholesaling branches.
Schroder Salomon added that with margin pressures set to continue in
southern Europe and uncertainty in the German market for Gehe, it believes this
adds further potential for downside risks for both firm's shares in the short to
medium term.
The US broker reiterated its 'underperform, medium risk' ratings on both
Alliance UniChem and Gehe, with unchanged price targets of 450 pence and 37 eur
respectively.
Meanwhile, in its initial reaction to the OFT news, Commerzbank pointed out
that while the OFT's recommendations sound fine in principle, in practice the UK
Department of Health (DoH) will have a number of problems to look at as well.
The German-owned broker pointed out the DoH will have to consider whether
allowing such deregulation will restrict access for less mobile patients if
there is a move towards 'out of town' pharmacies, as well as the impact that
this will have on the cost of dispensing drugs to the NHS which presently has
contracts with the majority of pharmacies.
Commerzbank said, in its view, it would use any weakness in either Alliance
UniChem or Gehe as 'a buying opportunity'.
jmh/ak

[keyboard] 17/1/2003 17:16

NJP:



Have you been following events in the sector re today's announcements.
I tend to agree with boadicea and think that, with more
competition re pricing in supermarkets, and the lead INT
has in the generics field, this should be a splendid opportunity
for INT to increase sales. Time will tell, but any further
falls in the share price should be an opportunity to buy or add imo.
Today's trades show one buy and the rest are all sells. Amazing! I regard
INT as a fairly safe stock when I see what has happened to
some well known names in the pharma sector.

[boadicea] 17/1/2003 17:08

Seems to be sliding this week. If reason is today's report on freeing up pharmacy restrictions, I don't quite see the connection - if anything rather the opposite.
Anyone have a supposed explanation, or should I view it as a good moment to average?
Boad.

[njp] 04/1/2003 12:13

keyboard

Thanks. Sounds a pretty vague tip, then. Having said that, I certainly see upside from here over the next three months.

[keyboard] 03/1/2003 20:55

NJP:

I don't read the Express, only saw a resume at www.sharecast.com
where I find out what all the papers say. They send me a free e-mail every morning re what the papers say.
This service is also available at nothing-ventured from whom digital has
bought the sharecast site. Their (nothing-ventured) newspaper review is better, I think.
Express writer thinks that NHS spending may be to the advantage of
companies like INT hence the tip.

[njp] 03/1/2003 18:46

keyboard

Did they say anything interesting?

[keyboard] 03/1/2003 11:56

NJP:

Yesterday's excitement was probably due to INT
being tipped in the Express as a 2003 star.

[superrod] 03/1/2003 00:26

int is an ace share
bought 20k a few years back for 111p. resisted the temptation to sell on tom w advice. took up rights issue and sold next day for a nice profit and have been in and out since. nice divi and good prospects. good to see an int thread at last with a bit of action