International Medical Devices Share Discussion Threads

[wrisnr] 27/6/2003 00:02

leedslad001
You know better than those with half a million plus invested then do you ?
What price will you buy at ?

[leedslad001] 26/6/2003 11:55

wrisnr should i sell then?. Don't think so think i will buy as many as i can and tuck them away.

[wrisnr] 26/6/2003 11:52

70p here we come !

[keyboard] 26/6/2003 11:49

boadicea:

The following item which appeared in the "Telegraph" on 10.12.2002
is still relevant, with the emphasis being on 'the long term'
at the end of the article:

Prognosis good at Intercare

As the big pharmaceutical companies begin to suffer because they are losing patents on big drugs, someone must be picking up the slack. Companies like Intercare, which makes, sells and distributes generic pharmaceuticals, are poised to gain from the discomfort.

Intercare yesterday signed a deal with generics manufacturer Teva, which will mean that it becomes a national partner in Teva's retail distribution network in the UK. Intercare's 12 regional distribution units will support Teva.

Intercare, which will take on seven Teva staff, offers twice-daily deliveries and customer service support to independent pharmacies.

While no financial details of the deal were disclosed, it confirms the business strategy for the company. Intercare wants to become the partner of choice for other generics businesses as well as operating on its own. It has 170 customer-facing sales staff with more than 5,000 customers in the UK.

Intercare's own products include methadone, as well as injectable products, glass ampoules and vials. It also distributes parallel imported products, which are branded products acquired in overseas markets, where they are cheaper, and distributed in the UK.

This is not a strategy beloved of pharmaceutical companies, but it can be very lucrative. Intercare produced organic growth of 15pc in the first half of this year. Sales increased 28pc to £129m. Pre-tax profit was £5.68m, against £3.97m the previous year. This was after a £5.6m hit on goodwill and licence amortisation.

The shares, which remained unchanged at 236.5p yesterday, have dipped as low as 210.5p and soared as high as 288.5p this year. They trade on a forward price to earnings ratio for the year to end December of 11.3 times, lower than many peers.

Worth a look for the long term.

[boadicea] 26/6/2003 10:21

Looks grim. Big question is, Who is the seller and why?
Price drop has probably triggered stop-losses, explaining rash of small sales.
Small buys now coming in. Bounce seems probable, dead cat or otherwise, if only to catch shorters taking their ill-gotten profits.
In spite of all, I still like this for the long term.
All imho and dyor.

[pugugly] 26/6/2003 10:13

As said earlier Market does not like INT looks like some of the Institutions are starting to bail out - Question is:- What do they knwo that we do not? Have learnt the hard way not to fight the Market - Going to wait this one out - Unless anyone knows better?

[mjneish] 26/6/2003 10:11

If you click on "trades" at the top, then "Help" on the right, you will find an explanation for every trade symbol that appears.

[danny murphy] 26/6/2003 09:45

What is a T trade sell and please tell me what all the other letters other than "o" mean, thanks

[mjneish] 26/6/2003 09:37

There have been a couple of T-trade sells today. The price (in my experience) often adjusts downwards before large sells like this go through. The question is, is there more to come?

[danny murphy] 26/6/2003 09:23

And which is ???

[mjneish] 26/6/2003 09:21

And now we have the reason for today's sudden drop.

[mjneish] 26/6/2003 08:49

Robbie12, I know I'm way off topic here, but I just read your post 165, and would like to tell you that although I well understand how you may be feeling about missing out on CEL's pre-results rise, you might want to start visiting the board again because there's a general feeling there that they have a lot further to go. They are also rumoured to be about to close an important deal with GSK (according to Shares mag; I don't know if they can be trusted).

Sorry to go off topic on this board. It's not meant to be a ramp, just a note to let Robbie12 know that there may still be opportunities there. I think that my confidence in the company was boosted quite a bit by his judgement last year, and I feel that I should tell him that although the boat's started sailing, it still hasn't left the port. If you jump into a dinghy and row like mad, you might be able to catch it.

[leedslad001] 26/6/2003 08:37

No idea, but wish i had spare money to grab some at this price.

[danny murphy] 26/6/2003 08:22

Anyone knows what the problem is? Down 9.2% or 13p

[kaddo] 25/6/2003 10:52

I think is a good buy becuase the have cash reserves and the pre-tax profit is good.

[keyboard] 20/6/2003 16:31

NJP:

I don't know whether you saw the previous consensus forecast to 31/12/04
dated 04/03/03.
Profit>27.10m*EPS>28.74*DPS>5.56

The latest one predicts higher profits albeit on a lower EPS with
an increase in the DPS.

We shall have to be patient.

[njp] 20/6/2003 16:20

Precisely, keyboard. My guess is that concensus is still a tad optimistic. I'm confident that the pre goodwill / exceptionals number will be around 20p eps for 2003. Need to guage current sentiment with the company, but my feeling is that INT will be a real bargain if it slips much further. There seems to be chart support at 120p. If it gets as low as that you're looking at a p/e of 6 and a yield of 4.5%. Better than a bank deposit plus the prospect of doubling your money over 12 months. Can't say further than that.

All presupposes no catastrophes, of course, but I'm not aware of any. As I've said, it's no GSD.

[keyboard] 20/6/2003 16:11

I see what you mean, NJP. In which case the consensus forecast
to 31/12/04 (see post 181) is promising! What do you think?

[njp] 20/6/2003 16:07

Keyboard

Suggest you ignore the goodwill amortisation. This will give you the 20p plus numbers.

[keyboard] 20/6/2003 16:00

Figures I have for 2002 are the same as Pug's. EPS=5.10 and DPS=5.4

[njp] 20/6/2003 15:52

Interesting, Pug. I'll be talking to the company v soon and check out whether Nomura have / or plan to update their numbers.

[pugugly] 20/6/2003 15:49

NJP_ Figures from June refs do not quite agree with yours. Not sure why. 02 eps:- FRS3 5.1p and normalised 21.3p. Dividend 5.4p.
Current consensus (Refs June again) 21.6p per shareand even Brewins (20th May) are still suggesting 21.9. WestLB 5th May were forecasting 21.2p. So -v- brokers you are realistic.
Agree with you it is very difficult make confident estimates.
Nomura - House Broker does not appear to have updated their Estimates of 16th December - Curious?

[keyboard] 20/6/2003 15:48

Actually the last consensus forecasts of 2nd June are better than the previous
ones of 4th March.

To:31/12/03:
Profit>24.89(134.37%)* EPS>21.30(317.65%)*DPS>5.610(3.89%)

To:31/12/04:
Profit>29.65(19.12%)* EPS>24.9(16.9%)*DPS>5.82(3.74%)

I agree with NJP that INT is sentiment-driven, so either one buys the
long-term story and holds/accumulates or one just turns away, but imo the potential for generics should not be overlooked or underestimated!

[njp] 20/6/2003 14:42

PUG

Still not out of the down trend, I agree, but this is no GSD I assure you. Also disagree on the downside / upside risk. Although down may well be the next move, do bear in mind that 2002 eps was 22.8p and dividend 5.5p. Forecasts for 2003 were 24p and, though these have obviously been modified downwards, I still see 20p or thereabouts as likely. I believe current concensus is 21.3p. Distribution is suffering but manufacturing is doing well and already contributes the lion's share of profits. All this has to limit downside - I see 20p or so short of a market catastrophe - but £1 or more on the upside in 12 months time.

INT's trouble is that it is little known and, yes, it will suffer on sector sentiment. That's why in my view it has such potential as a recovery play.

[pugugly] 20/6/2003 14:19

boadicea> Yes - yes - yes- yes- yes - Once the trend is set it (imo) seems to be self fulfilling until it turns - but as the old saying goes "{no bells ring at the bottom" So it is anyones guess. Gut feel suggests there is possibly more downside risk than upside at the moment - especially after the Goldshield and Huntleigh profit warnings. All imo and dyor etc..