Interactive Prospect Targeting Share Discussion Threads

[t0pgrader] 12/12/2006 09:34

Good!

I'm very keen to buy the stock because it is the sector leader and is the only one with international capacity but nothing is likely to persuade me until the scale of whatever problem is known.

[markie7] 12/12/2006 08:36

exactly - never trust a company who picks up analysts on the way down. behind the scenes they have probably fallen out with their broker, and other banks start covering them as part of a courtship process pre-change.

we basically agree here topgrader

[markie7] 12/12/2006 08:35

exactly - never trust a company who picks up analysts on the way down. behind the scenes they have probably fallen out with their broker, and other banks start covering them as part of a courtship process pre-change.

we basically agree here topgrader

[t0pgrader] 11/12/2006 22:48

Point taken.

I've seen this numerous times over the years. Unscrupulous company seeks to compensate for softening financial performance by encouraging new analysts / investors to take first time interest. Only this time all it's doing at best is supporting the share price If Investec's buy recommendation can't get the share price going then the situation is even more bearish imho.

[markie7] 11/12/2006 22:30

he's not, is a mainstream media analyst - I've met several of them over the last couple of years - he's one of the sharpest, and one I'd listen to.

up to you really - just passing it on.

[t0pgrader] 11/12/2006 22:23

Markie

Totally agree - PR and the truth are not exactly synonomous with one another. Anyway, they are generally the last to be told about a problem so they continue to peddle the official company line for as long as possible.

If Steve Leitchi was so successful if he wouldn't be researching AIM stocks for a living

[markie7] 11/12/2006 20:27

nurdin - not meaning to be patronising at all, so sorry about that - however simple reality is that 99% of financial PR people know literally nothing about valuations, and they simply spout the party line. I know several of them, and I wouldn't take investment advice from any of them, especially when they are talking about their clients. Its the route to madness.

[bluebelle] 11/12/2006 09:49

Markie7 - 9 Dec'06 - 21:01 - 139 of 141
3 - Corporate governance is crucial here, when things are going south like this and you get unclear statements - then you have to ask questions.


Markie

Quite agree. I still think they have a credibility problem and anything other than positive news on sales and profit growth will see these marked down sharply IMHO. Even allowing for the fact that it has been over hyped - which was not the fault of the company - a share seldom loses 30% of its value in 6 months for no reason.

It has broken - although not yet decisively - a reasonably well established trading channel. From a purely technical point of view, one of two things might happen. Either this provides resistance and there is a strong bounce back or, and I think this is more likely, the up trend has been broken and June will prove to have been the start of a long term down trend.

One best watched until things become clearer IMHO.

[melody9999] 11/12/2006 08:37

Could anyone send me the Investec note pls? I'll post my email for a day if here from anyone. thanks

[nurdin] 09/12/2006 23:05

Steve Leitchi says buy..thats good enough for me

You sound patronising markie7....

[markie7] 09/12/2006 21:01

A couple of observations here

1 - Assuming the analyst at Investec covering this is Steve Lietchi then is probably the best covering this small cap area. So listen to him.

2 - Anyone relying on a financial PR man to tell them anything informative is taking a huge risk. To admit that "we should have talked about UK trading in retrospect" - is, you could say, slightly more than a large ommission!

3 - Corporate governance is crucial here, when things are going south like this and you get unclear statements - then you have to ask questions. Watch the house forecasts very carefully, they will be used to massage down expectations without having to issue a profit warning.

For my part - it is possible that the market will over-react here, so well worth watching. But, I'm not buying at the moment.

[diogenesj] 09/12/2006 16:03

Thanks, N. I'll keep an eye on them.

[nurdin] 09/12/2006 15:40

Diogenes

Investec are not their house brokers as you probably know and I understand the company does not agree with all that has been said in the note.I also understand that other analysts are taking an interest and further notes will be issued shortly.

Further acquisitions,which are likely to be earnings enhancing are also on cards.

[diogenesj] 09/12/2006 11:06

There is something odd about the share price decline. It's true that the Aim index has not done well, but the Small Cap Index is hitting new highs, and so are the shares of other Aim companies in this sort of general area, such as YOU, TOL, and RNOW.

I see that although the French company is said to be doing well, it is also said to require serious investment. In consequence the house brokers have slightly reduced their forecasts for the next couple of years. The shares still look cheap, despite the reduction in forecasts, after their fall. But I think I need to see exactly how the UK company is really doing before buying in again.

[t0pgrader] 09/12/2006 09:26

nurdin

Thanks v much for the info. I now understand why you believe the stock offers good value and on the face of it there is a buying argument. And on the other hand, one can't get away from the fact that if the biggest and seemingly best company by a mile in a high growth industry can't find anything worthwhile to say about its core market and is isn't concerned about its share price when its considering making acquisitions presumably with shares then something just has to be wrong doesn't it?

[nurdin] 09/12/2006 09:13

t0pg

Yes I asked him all those questions...and here is a synopsis of his answers..not verbatim I should add:

-share price..the stock was trading at a fairly high multiple in the early part of the year.Subsequent months saw a major decline in the smaller companys index and stock on high multiples like IPH suffered along with others.
-the trading statement...they wanted to highlight the progress at the French subsidiary as there were some concerns in the market about the acquisition.Also wanted to announce the major contract
-the UK business is performing to expectations..and on hindsight they feel they should have stated as much in the last RNS.
-a further TS is likely to be issued before or soon after the year end.

I bought after my conversation with the chap.Cant say I feel 100% comfortable with my holding,specially given the abysmal chart, but I am prepared to give them the benefit of my doubt.If they deliver to expectations a major rerating could be on the cards imo

[t0pgrader] 08/12/2006 23:51

Nurdin

May I ask - did you ask the PR co to explain the share price decline or why the co felt compelled to issue a non-event trading statement? Did you enquire about the UK business?

I can normally smell corporate decay and this is starting to feel rotten.

How strong is the corporate governance on the board?

[nurdin] 08/12/2006 17:42

I meant close period D....not close of session :o)

Spoke to a he at Adventis Financials..external but very close to the company

[bluebelle] 08/12/2006 17:23

nurdin

Who is that? Is he/she in-house or external?

[diogenesj] 08/12/2006 17:20

Friday after hours not a great time to issue a trading statement - but it looks as though they forgot anyway. :-)

[nurdin] 08/12/2006 16:21

I spoke to the companys PR yesterday.The UK business is doing fine and there will be a trading statement to that effect before or soon after close.The company is also eyeing up acquisitions in Europe and I expect news soon.
Investec issued a buy note yesterday

[melody9999] 08/12/2006 14:22

Chiva - I subscribe to your views. In a fast growing market, management will have had to be doing something really wrong not to increase earnings, or indeed to increase the rate of earnings increase.

I too think boredom sometimes settles in with investors - I was bored about RNOW - see post 111 on that thread - and when other equities are rising they slowly drift away. Oh....and OT someone pls give TMN a kick up the backside - fantastic results .