Intermediate Capital Share Discussion Threads

[maplinrover] 20/9/2009 16:58

2NGH
lol. How can we get our hands on these shares before the supply dries up?

[2ngh] 20/9/2009 16:34

Current NAV PS is 372 so trading at quite a discount to the market at present which I think we'll see catch up a bit during the week ahead....

With the general market recovery I would anticipate that the actual NAV PS is now much higher than 372 anyway and improving all the time.

Some substantial trades going through towards the end of play friday could see a premium on the price first thing with a strong open and big push north.

[2ngh] 18/9/2009 20:22

Seems like it was a good opportunity to get in today around 300 level with the resistance at 300 now becoming good support....

Technically the chart is looking fantastic with next resistance around 400-500....

Looking forward to next weeks push north to challenge the upper support line of the channel formed in July around at around 350-370....

Will put up a chart later.........

[its the oxman] 16/9/2009 21:20

geared play - so 400p short term - very possible if markets don't slide - chart suggests bigger resistance 450p-550p though.

[jackman2] 16/9/2009 14:36

why the jump to-day --- just a catch up after lagging the market? you have probably already seen this:

Intermediate Capital
Improved position for growth


■ Action/Event: Publishing new forecasts, rating and target price following restriction. We rate ICG Outperform with a 365p target price. (pre-restriction our rating was Neutral).

■ Investment Case: The rights issue raised £351m of new equity which in combination with the c£265m of undrawn debt facilities gives around £616m of capacity for growth, significantly relieving our prior concern on the group's constrained ability to fund growth. With substantial European buyout debt in need of refinancing over the next few years we now believe ICG is better placed to take advantage of the market opportunity.

■ However, there are still challenges to overcome. In the near term, earnings are likely to remain under pressure given substantial impairment risk in what remains a tough economic environment. On this point, we were encouraged by the strong message from management in the FY 09 results released in June that asset quality deterioration was not spreading throughout the portfolio. However, we expect impairment to remain elevated over the near term leading to ICG reporting a breakeven level of profits this year. From FY 2011 onwards we expect the environment to gradually improve leading to lower impairment charges and rising gains on investments.

■ Catalysts: Intermediate Capital is due to publish H1 2010 results on 24 November 2009.

■ Valuation: ICG currently trades on around 0.9x our 2009E TNAV and on around 13.7x our 2011E EPS with a c7% dividend yield. We set our 12 month forward target price in line with our theoretical price to TNAV model at 365p, offering around 45% potential upside to the current share price.

[chris79] 16/9/2009 11:13

Different world then sanbank, nav would have to totally fly to get there again, nor least due to the vastly higher number of shares in issue afer the rights issue. Looking to buy back at 290 odd and think i will be able to in the weeks ahead.

[2ngh] 16/9/2009 10:20

Think we could see a good rebound and possibly be looking for around 400 in the short term.

Chris79 - Dont be too hasty, let the winners run and only cut the losers!!

[sandbank] 16/9/2009 10:13

CHRIS79: Well - ICP was way over 1500p just 18 months ago!

...But if you sold - remember you can hop back on board for just the commission and a few pence. If I were you though I would wait until the end of the day.

[chris79] 16/9/2009 10:01

A tad ambitious there i think sandbank, mind you i am kicking myself having sold this morning at 306.5!

[sandbank] 16/9/2009 09:38

JACKMAN2: This is a 1500p share :-)

[jackman2] 16/9/2009 09:11

Hi - new to this one - bought in at 272p - where do you think this is going £5??

[its the oxman] 28/8/2009 10:51

touching 300p so quick is a pretty eventful for me - roll on 400p

[terzoalan] 27/8/2009 15:24

Pretty uneventful here at the moment...

[weemonkey] 26/8/2009 12:06

anyone done calc for net tangible asset value per share after the placing

I make it about parity.

[nobee] 24/8/2009 13:24

Credit Suisse have upgraded this share to "outperform", target price 365p.

[its the oxman] 06/8/2009 08:24

be nice to see this hit 300p - may be a bit early for that but will happen in time I reckon - abn amro forecast 16p eps 2010 and see 51p eps for 2011 - total guesswork at this stage but highly geared to recovery with good div as well

[taylor20] 05/8/2009 11:43

Must take this off my watch list, gutted I didn't take the plunge! (Thanks Simon for highlighting anyway).

[maplinrover] 04/8/2009 19:28

Kimboy2
I understand the adjustment factor was based on the closing price (490p) on the day of the announcement.
Twice 490 plus seven times 121 divided by 9 gives 203. 203/490 gives a figure close to 0.4141, the small difference being accounted for, I suppose, by the costs.

[kimboy2] 03/8/2009 23:47

I make the present market cap £2.18 X 397.4m = £866m

£351m was raised by issuing 309.1m @ £1.21 (minus costs)

That leaves £515m divided by pre rights shares (88.31m) = 584p

Might well be wrong though.

Something interesting in the FT;

[maplinrover] 03/8/2009 21:39

Kimboy2
Apparently the adjustment factor is 0.4141. Old price multiplied by adjustment factor = new price, so 218p converts back to 526p.

[simon gordon] 03/8/2009 21:17

BoA Merrill Lynch upgraded ICP to a buy today. Price target 240p.

"Our core view, which forms the base of our upgrade, is a simple one. ICG is a levered credit play. Credit has rallied strongly over the past few months, while ICG hasn't."

[kimboy2] 03/8/2009 15:36

I reckon we are at 580p in old money and continuing the run up.

Has anybody got hold of a copy of the Goldman Sachs report, or indeed the Numis one.

[vk74] 03/8/2009 14:36

gre - thank you very much for the info. I got some shares and now I am making a good profit.

[maplinrover] 03/8/2009 13:55

OXMAN
The shorters closed (and probably started to buy the nil-paid at 50+p) to make a killing at the expense of those holders who hadn't sufficient funds or courage to take up their allocation.