Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 04/10/2019 15:42

Wow - 57.5m shares traded today at 15p. Perhaps more to be reported as the other sides of the trades?

Hopefully this is the clearance of the (Thornton?) overhang. Ready to light the blue touch paper now (insert your own cliche!)....

[sphere25] 01/10/2019 12:47

Those trades are a time correction.

Initially 217,342 was reported as buy at 11.53.55 on Friday 27/09/19. Today two delayed trades of the same amount have been reported with a time of 10.53.55 i.e. precisely one hour earlier than what was reported initially.

Furthermore, one of the entries is a subtraction so essentially they are netting off the wrong trade and reapplying it at the correct time. In this instance, it doesn't change the volume on Friday.

Unfortunately, the convoluted way ADVFN reports trades makes it very tricky to decipher what is actually going, even for the more experienced traders.

Ultimately, the offer was 15.5 and there has been a buyer in size here. There are a fair few bored folk offloading their stock. If the buyers in size continue picking up loose stock, I'd expect this stock to smash its way through the recent high at 16p.

[rivaldo] 01/10/2019 10:34

Just reported rather late - a 217,342 share buy at 15.5p from 10.16 yesterday morning which would have caused yesterday's rise (it must be from yesterday as it's not included in today's volumes and the buy price makes sense).

It's almost as if the MMs are trying to hide this buying by burying it so that it looks like a sell from today by reporting it exactly a day late. Either that or I'm overthinking things :o))

[brucie5] 30/9/2019 10:43

Good little income stock on a rising dividend. I can imagine worse buy and holds in the current climate.

[rivaldo] 30/9/2019 10:39

Interesting times. A couple of small buys have led to another move up - I assume the trades at 15.33p are sells which achieved big premiums over the 15.1p bid price, indicating there's demand for stock out there.

[rivaldo] 27/9/2019 14:59

....hmmm...another 130,000 shares just bought at 16p, a full 0.5p above the 15.5p published offer price. Keen.

[rivaldo] 27/9/2019 12:04

...and there it is - 217,342 shares bought at 15.5p.

[rivaldo] 27/9/2019 11:17

Another tick up - two days in a row :o))

Probably a delayed reported buy to come (or background demand), as I can't believe the 24k reported bought this morning so far have caused it unless there's a severe shortage of stock.

[rivaldo] 26/9/2019 16:02

Nice 162,000 share buy at 14.7p just now has caused a 0.5p move up.

[yump] 24/9/2019 00:24

winnings1

Last few months mainly averaging down. EZJ. SAGA. NEXS. SRT. Luckily all before they rose off what looks like bottoms or support, but of course they might not have been ! Wouldn't be the first time I've picked some that then restarted going down.

[rivaldo] 23/9/2019 12:24

News - INSE has become Birmingham Chamber of Commerce's preferred energy partner, which should bring in more business:



"Inspired Energy plc Partner with Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce

16th September 2019

Inspired Energy has become Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce’s (GBCC) preferred energy partner.

As part of the partnership, Inspired Energy will be sponsoring flagship Chamber events, including being headline sponsors of the Autumn Expo, Future Faces of Sales and Marketing award at the Future Faces dinner and the Business of the Year award at the Asian Business Chamber awards in December.

etc"

[winnings1] 17/9/2019 07:40

Yump, where else, would like to know which company you put your money on?

[yump] 16/9/2019 23:25

Yeah but, no but, me money has gone somewhere else already.

[winnings1] 16/9/2019 16:55

I think the excellent dividend-growth alone is good enough reason to put some money INSE's way. INSE is a well managed outfit, the share price is attractively low for those who want to come on board. Come on Yump, don't overlook the positives, it is not just negatives as you see them.

[pj 1] 16/9/2019 13:43

Maybe the negative net tangible asset value or the high share price to free cash flow (x23) is a concern but at this stage it doesn't seem to warrant such a disconnect price wise?

[pj 1] 16/9/2019 13:26

It does seem bizarre that Normalised eps according to stockopedia over doubles from 2018 to 2019 forecast, yet the share price is roughly the same.

From what I can see it used to trade on a p/e of x20 from 2012 to 2017. Even if you factor in the increasing debt its on a rough p/e of x10.


So, either the Market is missing it? the market knows something we do not, or my favourite the Thorntons holdings are causing concerns when its time to off load?


I still go back to my visit to the premises with 2 ferrari or Lamboughini parked outside. It never sat well.


Total guesswork that the Thorntons may want to off Load, but cannot find any II's willing to take the stock. The City would probably be aware of that.


All IMO

[yump] 16/9/2019 10:11

I'm so sorry for 'sidetracking' you in your efforts to support the share price.

You can post as many positives as you want, but I'm sure as an avid researcher, people here would be interested to hear your possible explanations for the depressed share price. Up to you of course.

Don't forget to big up the cash on the balance sheet.
(Yes that is meant to be sarcastic)

Oh, sorry that last bit was a little impolite, I hope it doesn't offend your sensitivities.

If you are actually not questioning why the valuation is so cheap after so many instances of good news, then I wish you good luck here.

I'm certainly not buying again, until I can find a reason and I certainly don't believe I am lucky enough to have spotted a bargain that nobody else has seen, given how long the depressed valuation has been in existence.

[rivaldo] 16/9/2019 09:49

I think my prior post before being sidetracked deserves another airing - I think it's of interest and relevance at the moment, and it took more effort than usual!

As well as being on a core forward P/E of only 7.4, with a 5.4% divi yield, INSE have issued some interesting press releases in the last month indicating their involvement in and advisory services for the most pressing issues in the energy sector.

For example:

- electric vehicle optimisation/cost savings/charge points etc:



- reduction of carbon emissions/"net zero", i.e UK emissions to reduce to zero:



- power grid balancing/ demand side response:



- corporate energy procurement strategies:

[yump] 16/9/2019 09:05

Fair enough. Must be some other reason for the cheap valuation then. I was quite positive on this last year but when it just failed to respond to good news despite brokers targets of 25p, I sold out.

Perhaps it’s a hidden bargain or perhaps it’s not end of story. Perhaps it’s the level of the adjustments that bothers investors. Perhaps there’s a potential overhang (from Janet Thornton)

[rivaldo] 16/9/2019 08:36

I politely answered your question when you first asked it.

Quite apart from my own view, every research report you will see on any PLC, large or small, buy or sell note, uses the adjusted profit and EPS figures to value the business and arrive at a valuation. Perhaps this is a bit of a clue.

In addition, I have had four takeovers of companies in my portfolio recently - PTSG, SCH, SND and EUSP. Three of these had large variations between adjusted and statutory profits. But the prices paid for those business bore relation only to the adjusted figures in terms of making any sense - the statutory figures were completely irrelevant. So it seems that both company analysts and corporate financiers consider the adjusted figures to be the valid numbers in terms of business valuations.

If you have a different view that's up to you. End of story.

[yump] 15/9/2019 09:40

How do you view the treatment of statutory and adjusted profits when there’s a big gap between them ?

[yump] 11/9/2019 12:02

Forecasts are using adjusted profits, which is all well and good if there is not too much adjustment.

Statutory profits are about half adjusted profits because there's a big chunk (£2mln+) of amortized intangibles added back to get the adjusted profits.

Perhaps that's why its not on a higher p/e. When there is such a big gap between reported and adjusted profits it muddies the waters a bit.

The reduced statutory profits obviously get a much reduced tax charge, which keeps actual cash in the business. So the use of amortized intangibles can be a point of vigourous debate, as its a grey area deciding on what is a reasonable lifetime over which to amortise and what is a reasonable value for the assets amortized.

[rivaldo] 11/9/2019 10:35

Current consensus forecasts have altered ever so slightly and are now:



this year: 1.82p EPS, 0.71p dividend
next year: 2.07p EPS, 0.83p dividend

At 15.25p that's a forward P/E of just 7.4 and a 5.4% divi yield.

[yump] 10/9/2019 11:03

luffness

A collection of businesses with old people running them who want to retire, or a collection of mature businesses where the owners are simply bored, or a collection of businesses that have lacked investment (because the owners have milked the profits)... ??

Maybe INSE's share price is just based on an average of the adjusted diluted eps and the diluted eps. That would 'even out' the debate about which is the 'correct' eps to use...

ie. 1.6p for the year, or 0.7p for the year, if you just double them.
So one is at a p/e of 10 and the other at a p/e of 20, depending on how you view the relevance of adjusting for amortised intangibles etc.