Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 19/3/2020 09:43

SME's are still a small part of the business aren't they? In the interims they reported £19m revenue from Corporate and only £3m from SME.

And personally I'd be happy to see a bit of a pause in the acquisitions so that we can get a feel for what genuinely "clean" performance looks like. Although on the other hand the coming year might present acquisition opportunities at bargain rates if INSE feels it has the cash generation or banking facility strength to take advantage.

[owenski] 19/3/2020 09:23

I'd imagine their forward order book which is the bell weather of future earning prospects for INSE could well look a bit sobering as this year unfolds.

Their buy and build business model is likely to be put on hold for some time, and their SME target market is in the eye of this particular storm.

[1gw] 19/3/2020 09:13

I've bought 100k there at 9.3p. Amazing that I sold at more than twice that price as recently as 19th Feb.

Apart from the supply-demand issue if Miton or another institution needs to raise cash, I've been trying to understand potential downsides of the current scenario for Inspired.

They do have debt, but they've only just (Oct'19) refinanced so that shouldn't be an issue for some time, although if it is variable rate their costs may go up depending on their credit rating. They have also been solidly cash-generative at the operating cash level.

With energy prices crashing I guess their customers might move optimisation of energy costs down the list of priorities, so it may be harder to win new business. Also with more home-working and some industrial facilities closing down or running at low throughputs the energy demand of their customers is probably going to be down significantly, which probably reduces the expected income.

And of course like any business, it remains to be seen what sort of contingency planning they've done for continuation of the business if their own staff have to work from home or if they have a significant number of people off sick.

Anything else? Should be an interesting results statement on 31st.

[melody9999] 18/3/2020 21:38

good point 1gw. the share price here has been affected later than other stocks

[winnings1] 18/3/2020 13:50

Shares are now cheap enough to hand out 1 free share with each roll of toilet paper.
Tesco could make a start...

[1gw] 18/3/2020 08:50

I wonder if there's an institutional overhang. We have Miton in there with a big holding, among others. I suspect a number of institutions may be experiencing significant withdrawals/redemptions and will need to sell down some positions to meet them. Doesn't mean anything for the underlying health of the business but from a supply & demand point of view may still move the share price down materially.

[masurenguy] 17/3/2020 14:40

Dropped on negligible volume - 8 transactions, circa 80,000 shares - because a few people are just getting out of the market altogether and MM's can and will move the price down when there are very few buyers around. Fundamentals and prospects have not really changed here so if you are brave enough - in the context of current market volatility - it could be a good buying/top up opportunity, but you should always DYOR in that context!

[diesel] 17/3/2020 12:39

Any ideas why this is so badly effected, I would have thought their revenues are fairly predictable, unless their customers go bust!

[tole] 16/3/2020 12:12

Surprisingly big drop here.. added a few anyway.

[diesel] 11/3/2020 11:12

And me....the market turmoil is hitting stocks that should be resilient, ftse down about 10%, inse down almost 20%.

[1gw] 11/3/2020 10:49

Bought some.

[rivaldo] 11/3/2020 08:50

Bargain time here imho.

Results will be on 31st March - less than three weeks away - and we know that they will be good from the trading update, which concluded as follows:

"Trading remained strong throughout the year and this trend has accelerated in the opening weeks of 2020, underpinned by the order book."

So INSE are now on a historic P/E of 9.2 given 1.8p EPS, and are strongly on track for 2p EPS this year - a P/E of 8.25.

[rivaldo] 09/3/2020 13:33

Tipped today as a growth company by Richard Penny of TM CRUX UK Special Situations Fund:



"Inspired Energy is looking more exciting

Inspired Energy (Aim: INSE) has if anything been a rather unexciting business; it sells energy to small companies. Still, there has been a nice progression of revenues, profits and dividends over several years. We think the company’s prospects look auspicious. It should thrive by selling energy-audit and clean-energy strategies to its captive client base. These green drivers should lead to a stockmarket reassessment and revaluation of the company’s shares."

[rivaldo] 04/3/2020 10:57

As published on 27th February, INSE are running Manchester University's 33 month tender to supply mains gas and electricity to the University, which should be worth a decent sum going forward:



"University of Manchester is seeking to appoint suppliers of mains gas and HH electricity for a 33-month contact commencing July 2020 and ending March 2023.

This tender is being run by Inspired Energy plc on behalf of the University and is open to holders of a valid Ofgem supply licence for the relevant utility only.

Lot Division
1 Half-hourly Metered Electricity
This tender is for half hourly electricity, to be traded on a flexible purchasing strategy employing both buys and sells on a forward and prompt basis. The portfolio comprises 42 HH meters with an estimated annual consumption of 105 842 MWh.

The contract is offered for 33 months from July 2020 to March 2023, with the option to extend for a further 2 years.

2 Mains Gas
This tender is for the supply of mains gas, to be traded on a flexible purchasing strategy employing both buys and sells on a forward and prompt basis.

The portfolio comprises 91 meters with an approximate annual quantity of 115 736 MWh.

This tender is being run by Inspired Energy plc on behalf of the University and is open to holders of valid Ofgem supply licence only.

Renewal Options
This contract may be extended for a further 48 months."

[rivaldo] 03/3/2020 11:38

Continuing to bounce. The P/E at 18.3p is now up to just 9.15 based on 2p EPS this year....

[rivaldo] 02/3/2020 08:59

Good to see the price ticking up on very small volumes - hopefully indicative of a shortage of stock.

INSE look highly undervalued imo given a P/E of only just above 9 and relatively little exposure to the virus.

[diesel] 29/2/2020 14:45

Absolutely right Riv, can’t see any exposures that should effect this company, have cash in my account waiting for a top up opportunity.

[rivaldo] 27/2/2020 12:12

Cheers 1gw. That rather impressive list now comprises almost 80% of the shares in issue!

I'd have thought INSE should be one of the safer investments around in the current virus-affected market:



Gresham House Asset Management 111,446,777 15.61%
Miton Asset Management Ltd 97,821,468 13.70%
Regent Gas Holdings Ltd 62,593,768 8.77%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management (Inst) 51,100,000 7.16%
Business Growth Fund 50,427,673 7.06%
Inspired Energy EBT 38,250,000 5.36%
Fidelity International 33,500,886 4.69%
Slater Investments Ltd 32,712,695 4.58%
Invesco 29,454,967 4.13%
Artemis 26,789,513 3.75%
Otus Capital Management 22,183,650 3.11%

[1gw] 27/2/2020 09:00

From the updated shareholder list on the INSE site, it looks like Fidelity took the bulk of Matthew Thornton's stake, which seems to me like a pretty good change to the register.

[1gw] 19/2/2020 23:19

Buoycat - indeed but in the past there hasn't always been much depth to the market, so a 100k or even 50k sell can take out the buyers at that price and then the bid moves down. Today I was able to sell 150k.

No stock-specific reason for my sale, other than a feeling that it's had a good run up from the low and it would be sensible for me to reduce the portfolio weight a bit - giving me more scope to buy if it does fall back.

[melody9999] 19/2/2020 22:55

IMV no company specific reason to take profits at this point. Run your winners. unless of course you are concerned about the wider market. I'm holding.

[buoycat] 19/2/2020 22:33

Why would your sale move the price down? The price you sell at is presumably the current sweet spot where buyers and sellers are willing to trade?

[1gw] 19/2/2020 12:45

I've taken some profit there. I had intended to if the price had moved up on the TU, but it didn't and I ended up buying instead on 6th Feb. So now we're back to 20p bid I've sold those I bought on 6th Feb (plus some more from a December purchase).

I don't seem to have moved the bid down, so must be a fair bit of demand.

INSE remains a top 5 holding for me.

[1gw] 18/2/2020 16:14

Looking good again.

[rivaldo] 14/2/2020 15:54

Indeed - highly prestigious, and a great reference point for others wanting to "go green".

1gw, INSE already had a relationship with NHSPS, so this deal is probably the first fruits of that relationship. It would be great to see the remaining 89% of the NHS's estate switched in the same way.

INSE's share price really does strike me as crazily undervalued at present!