Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 17/11/2019 14:40

Some random notes from me about INSE's presentation at Mello. I thought the CEO was an excellent presenter, full of passion and industry knowledge. In particular, he knows this sector inside out and has built up and sold similar companies before:

Latest forecasts:

- this year: 1.83p EPS, 0.7p dividend
- next year: 2.08p EPS, 0.8p dividend


- INSE have a 13% leading share in a fragmented market, and are one of only two buyers in the sector
- INSE recently won a new contract with Boots (there were bids from 7 or 8 competitors), and also have extended a contract with Travis Perkins through to 2023
- there's a £60m Corporate Order Book (this against £49m revenues forecast for 2019)
- all of Travis Perkins' energy invoices go to INSE and they input directly into TP's accounting system, set TP's budgets, manage their accruals etc, so are a major data management business
- client retention rates are high at 85%, and any churn is only due to acquisitions
- there are four growth drivers with non-discretionary, recurring imperatives:
(a) compliance with regulation, audit etc
(b) procurement savings
(c) energy accounting
(d) optimisation of energy usage, green efficiency etc

Huge opportunity in optimisation, which is £860m of the total £1.25 billion market. Three of every four UK businesses use a business like INSE, but only one in six have optimisation.

UTW were in almost entirely different markets to INSE, representing only 7% of INSE's business.

Historic private equity take-out valuation have been at minimum 10 times EBITDA. That would be £230m for next year, against the £112m current m/cap.

INSE are rolling out RPA, which has the potential to automate 20% of the labour force.. They aim to increase TCV (Total Contract Value), reduce costs further using their Mumbai admin centre, and to make 4-5 acquisitions per annum.

Re the Ignite Energy acquisition: bought 40% for £5m. Only 10 customers, but makes £12m revenues and £3m EBITDA, embedding staff in clients' operations. WH Smith have made £3.8m annual savings, and SSP £1.5m. INSE have 500 other clients who could make similar savings....

There's a pipeline of acquisitions through to 2024, and INSE aim to grow revenue per meter from £220 to £840.

INSE as a sector-leading player have more leverage with energy suppliers than competitors , i.e in getting rebates from those suppliers for clients.

[abarclay] 13/11/2019 15:36

Hsw taking off 🚀

[sphere25] 13/11/2019 13:30

Very very close to the long awaited breakout now.

At the present moment in time, there is no stock available with the offer at 17p. A staggering 22p to buy anything more than 1k!

They clearly need to find some stock. They can have mine up at around 20p. I have waited long enough :-D

[wanttowin] 13/11/2019 13:07

come on you beauty

[cheshire man] 13/11/2019 08:56

Today at #MelloLondon
@MelloEventsUK
piworld are filming #INSE Inspired Energy the videos be out on piworld when we've edited after the event

[rivaldo] 12/11/2019 22:34

So is that Matthew Thornton largely or completely out now? If so my last post was entirely incorrect :o))

Great to see the immediate move up in response to the huge volumes.

INSE are presenting tomorrow, so I'll try to get some answers if there's no holdings RNS.

[cheshire man] 12/11/2019 16:58

Closed up over 7% can't wait for rivaldo's feedback from Mello :-0))

[1gw] 12/11/2019 15:15

The spread is rather putting me off adding here though - and there didn't seem to be a lot of volume on offer (on a "quote and deal" type basis) even at the top end of the spread when I tried earlier. Hope to see it settle down to a more normal spread before long.

[1gw] 12/11/2019 14:15

Nice. Second one of mine today with big volume going through and a move up in price afterwards.

[wanttowin] 12/11/2019 13:59

Certainly hope so, it could be Matthews shares on the move.

[sphere25] 12/11/2019 13:39

Some whopping exchanges with buyers in size at 14p.

26m and counting.

Is that finally the sellers cleared now?

[rivaldo] 11/11/2019 10:04

I'll try to post a summary of what was said at Mello at some point.

With Janet Thornton having exited, the Thorntons are now £5m+ wealthier and those shares are presumably now in safe hands. I would doubt that Matthew Thornton needs to sell any shares for some time to come :o))

[melody9999] 10/11/2019 19:43

PS if you are going to Mello I would appreciate any feedback. I'm currently on our annual 'escape the winter' stay in New Zealand.

[melody9999] 10/11/2019 19:41

Thanks Riv - I was considering re-entering prior to Mello, as I suspect that will alert a few more PIs to INSE. (in fact I suggested to Mark and INSE PR team that they should attend Mello some months ago so it is noce to see they are listening.

However with Matthew still holding 5%+ of the company and likely to exit in the not too distant, I'll probably remain on the sidelines until there is a holdings announcement

[rivaldo] 10/11/2019 11:12

Here's the list of shareholders as at 14th August - note that Janet Thornton has since exited and Gresham House have increased their holding:

[melody9999] 10/11/2019 10:26

I note this from the annual report 270319:

"Matthew Thornton today steps down as Non-Executive Director and has entered into an orderly market agreement in relation to his holding expiring 31 March 2020."

I had a file note suggesting Matthew held 38M shares. But cannot see him featured as a notifiable shareholder on II. Can anyone shed any light on Matthew's current holding?

[cheshire man] 07/11/2019 10:03

And while we wait we get over 4% return on our investment :-)

[rivaldo] 07/11/2019 09:54

Interesting comparison. As a longstanding GAN holder, GAN was similarly frustrating for a long time. Yet now the market has finally caught on and it's a multi bagger.

If the market similarly latches on here, then who knows what will happen to INSE. A major re-rating takes only weeks if events align properly.

[harry the haddock] 07/11/2019 09:23

and yet the share price is now only 3 p higher than it was 5 years ago.this is the most frustrating share in my portfolio; keep hanging on to it, and still want to hold, but very tempting to sell and reinvest in GAN which is just a license to print money at the moment

[rivaldo] 07/11/2019 09:15

It's great to hear that they intend to make four to five acquisitions a year, and at relatively low multiples from an ageing competitor base.

INSE have a very good track record regarding their many acquisitions to date, with the larger ones perhaps being amongst the best. If cash flows are good then a little debt is fine - that's what the markets are for after all, and frankly the less dilution to shareholders the better.

[diesel] 07/11/2019 09:03

Why?, the aquisitions have not done much for the sp, I'm all for growing the business but debt could start to weigh heavily here at this rate of spend.

[cheshire man] 07/11/2019 08:27

Would be a nice x-mas present to hear of an acquisition...... any time soon will do :-)

[masurenguy] 07/11/2019 08:10

There are 9 major institutional holders who account for almost two-thirds of the issued shares.

Miton Asset Management Ltd: 97,821,468. 13.70%
Gresham House Asset Management: 95,127,975. 13.32%
Regent Gas Holdings Ltd: 63,443,768. 8.89%
Business Growth Fund: 50,427,673. 7.06%
Canaccord Genuity WM (Inst): 50,350,000. 7.05%
Inspired Energy EBT: 38,250,000. 5.36%
Slater Investments Ltd: 32,712,695. 4.58%
Invesco: 28,225,467. 3.95%
Praetura Ventures: 11,137,039. 1.56%

[rivaldo] 06/11/2019 07:21

RNS confirmation today that INSE will present to Mello on Wednesday 13th November - looking forward to it: