Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[1224saj] 25/9/2023 15:09

Ear, sorry I called you eat ?

[1224saj] 25/9/2023 14:49

Eat, we've seen this in the past. Large holder managing other people's money gets nervous so sells at a loss to keep his job

[earwacks] 20/9/2023 16:08

I’ve sent another email enquiring about why there is no RNS about what is clearly a notifiable holder dumping stock as happened previously. Don’t expect an answer as this lot don’t appear to have the grace or good manners to reply to lowly private investors. Basically if you don’t want people to think you are an energy supplier don’t call yourself Inspired Energy. But of cause that is a pathetic reason for the performance which is down to costs outstripping profit. Do they have a remedy other than changing the name?

[rivaldo] 18/9/2023 07:33

The Investment Company PLC/Chelverton have evidently been buying per today's RNS and have accumulated a 6.3% holding in INSE, with 6.335m shares:



Chelverton Asset Management had a 4.7% holding in INSE at 14th August with 4.72m shares per INSE's web site, so I assume they've bought another 1.6m or so shares.

Chelverton were appointed as the Investment Company's external investment portfolio manager in July. Perhaps the new holding is a combo of both their holdings now (the Investment Company haven't previously had a holding in INSE).

[onjohn] 14/9/2023 19:19

30p target

[earwacks] 14/9/2023 18:18

Looks like another institution dumping stock at 70p. Come on Mr Wotton get your cheque book out. Might as well go for the takeover now

[kalai1] 11/9/2023 14:44

Inspired plc posted interims for the HY ended 30th June this morning. Each of the Group's four divisions traded well, with the Group delivering organic revenue growth of 10% in H1 2023. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 9% in H1 2023, with Group margins remaining stable and in line with expectations at 24%. The balance sheet weakened a little with net debt increasing in line with management’s expectations to £49.1m, but is expected to turn back lower by year-end and gearing ratios are comfortable. Valuation looks very attractive with forward PE ratio at 6.7x top quartile for the Professional & Commercial Services sector. Share price lacks positive momentum and remains in a longer run correction for now. One to monitor for the time being...

...from WealthOracle

[rivaldo] 11/9/2023 07:53

H1's 4.84p EPS is a touch ahead of Liberum's forecast, and Liberum have retained their forecast for the year of 13p EPS.

They've also raised their forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 5%, to 13.7p and 13.9p EPS

They have a 200p target price and say Buy.

INSE are confident of meeting expectations given the H2 weighting.

Great to see ESG and Software roaring ahead, and Optimisation is trading well again.

Underlying EPS was down due to higher interest rates, and cash flows were affected by acquisition consideration payments which won't recur - in fact July cash inflows were terrific.

Over time there looks to be excellent upside here. These results may or may not move the needle too much, but INSE look on the right track imo and look cheap.

[1gw] 08/9/2023 09:22

"Inspired will announce its unaudited half year results to 30 June 2023 on 11 September 2023."

From the 9th Aug RNS.

[earwacks] 08/9/2023 09:19

Where are the interims? Supposed to be today. Very poor communicators and don’t respond to emails. Terrible investor relations. Hope their business is better run

[kumbuka] 30/8/2023 23:00

One of your better posts bully boy pj LOL

[rivaldo] 11/8/2023 10:25

FYI Liberum's is an 11 page note - here's their summary:

"Order book growth underpins outlook

The H1 update guides to good progress in H1, with momentum in Q1 continuing into Q2. We introduce H1 FD EPS of 5.0p which implies an H1 weighting of 39%. We expect IAS 17 net debt to increase from £37m at FY 22 to £48m at H1.

We maintain our FY 23 FD EPS estimate of 13.0p, despite an increase in expected interest, and maintain our net debt estimate. We expect that the order book is growing due to new business generation, longer contracts and higher retention at Assurance. Looking at the divisions: 1) At Energy Assurance, limited growth in year but new business wins and improved retention; 2) At Energy Optimisation there is continued strong growth as customers continue to focus on ESG, helped by cross-sell; 3) ESG is also growing very fast from a low base, and benefitting Optimisation.

A CY 24 P/E of 6.9x is attractive given the growth.

The H1 update guides to good progress in H1, with momentum in Q1 continuing into Q2. Each of the four divisions is trading well. We expect interim results on the 11th of September.

We introduce H1 FD EPS of 5.0p which implies an H1 weighting of 39% For the first time we introduce earnings estimates for H1. We assume sales increase 9% (all organic) to £44m, and that the EBITDA margin remains stable at 23.9%. We assume that EBTDA grows from £9.7m to £10.5m. If we assume £2.4m of DA that suggests EBIT of £8.1m, an EBIT margin of 16.2%. We estimate H1 FD EPS of 5.0p, which represents an H1 weighting of 39.0%, and we assume H1 DPS of 1.4p."

"A CY 24 P/E of 6.9x is attractive given the growth. Inspired has a low carbon beta, but that should change as its ESG credentials become more apparent. Growth in newer areas like Optimisation, Software and ESG, should accelerate growth and drive a re-rating. Our SoTP suggests a TP of 200p."

[rivaldo] 09/8/2023 12:11

Shore Capital are also bullish - extracts as follows. They forecast 13.7p EPS this year:

"H1 trading, momentum and confidence

The ‘ESG impact company’, providing specialist energy services and a partner to corporates in the UK and Ireland in the drive to ‘Net Zero’, has announced a trading update for its H1 period to end June this morning. This confirms good operational and strategic progress across Group activities.

Accordingly, Inspired is confidently retaining guidance for its FY23F performance at this juncture (revenue of c.£110m, EBITDA of c.£24m; we currently have revenues at £105m and EBITDA in-line at £24m). We will review our model and forecasts with the interim results confirmed to be posted on 11 September"

"Valuation thoughts

We note a confident tone in this H1 trading update. Inspired continues to evolve and offers investors solid ESG credentials and regulatory tailwinds in addition to long-term economic growth drivers.

The Group trades on a FY23F PER of 6.6x (EV/EBITDA 5.4x), funded by a free cash flow yield in the 11% range, with an anticipated dividend yield of 3.2%. We look to further solid progress through the current H2 period and beyond."

[rivaldo] 09/8/2023 08:40

Liberum have retained their 200p price target and forecast 12.9p EPS this year.

Good to see the one trade this morning is a Buy at 96p, 1p above the 95p published offer price, and that was for just £1k or so. Perhaps there's not much stock around.

Hopefully a little press attention and/or more institutional buying will trigger a sustained move back to 120p for starters.

[1gw] 09/8/2023 07:24

I agree. Will it be enough to give the share price a sustained boost though? Seems to be a real struggle shareprice-wise here.

[rivaldo] 09/8/2023 07:11

A rather encouraging H1 trading update this morning....

INSE are trading nicely in line with consensus forecasts of 13.5p EPS this year, with revenue of £110.5m and adjusted EBITDA of £24.2m.

At 90p that's a current year P/E of just 6.7.

All divisions are trading well. The newer ESG and Software divisions continue to grow. And the outlook is very confident:

"We head into H2 with a strong pipeline and a growing orderbook, underpinning our confidence for the full year and beyond."

[diesel] 18/7/2023 21:29

Yeah the share split was meant to make it more attractive to trade, oh well.

[bda3490] 18/7/2023 21:22

Hadn’t looked for ages
88p - I wrote them off at 12p

Then I see I have only one for 10 so 8.8p in old money

[rivaldo] 13/7/2023 14:34

Hi diesel. We're due an H1 trading update in early August - given the bullish outlook in the 29th March prelims I'm hoping this will read rather well. If so then a run up to say at least 140p-150p should be feasible given a current P/E of 7.

[diesel] 13/7/2023 11:39

Thanks Riv, still here with this one! Could do with something sparking interest, but I fear the market generally is dire.

[rivaldo] 13/7/2023 11:09

Liberum have today issued their first update note on INSE since the consolidation.

They have a 200p target price. They forecast 13p EPS this year, with a 2.7p dividend, giving a current year P/E of 7.

They summarise:

"Inspired Plc*

Site visit highlights the value of Ignite

Yesterday, Inspired hosted a site visit that showcased the Ignite business. The synergies with Assurance Services mean Inspired is uniquely placed to take advantage of the large opportunity. Ignite uses data to identify potential energy wastage. A comprehensive view of a customer’s sites allows it to target the low hanging fruit first and maximise the saving. It can help customers cut energy
consumption by c.45% which can lead to new work and secure a revenue stream to monitor energy usage on an ongoing basis. Our FY 24 and FY 25 revenue estimates for
Optimisation Services are cautiously set.

The deed of variation signed with the vendors of Ignite on 22 May introduced stretching targets, that will be self-funding and incentivises the management team.

We maintain our BUY recommendation but increase our TP from 20p to 200p to reflect the stock consolidation of 10 shares for 1 effective on 3 July 2023. A CY 24 P/E of 7.0x represents growth at a reasonable price.

Yesterday, Inspired hosted a site visit at some of its Ignite (c. 50% of
Optimisation services) customers and showcased how the business is able to help its customers to significantly reduce their energy consumption and carbon emissions; saving them money and aiding them in their journey to net zero.

The synergies with Assurance Services mean Inspired is uniquely placed to take advantage of the large opportunity From its strong position in Energy Assurance Services, where it works with a range of blue chip clients, Inspired can cross sell into Optimisation services."