Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 06/6/2023 16:13

No - it's just dilution (Ignite contingent consideration equity) causing them to drop through a % threshold. Hence they've ticked the "An event changing the breakdown of voting rights" box. You can see them with the same holding in terms of number of shares on the Inspired site, as of 14th May.

The holdings notice provides some transparency on how their holding is built up through different funds.

[1224saj] 06/6/2023 10:35

So Gresham have reduced their position by 0.87%?

[rivaldo] 25/5/2023 09:42

Ken Wooton did a presentation on Tuesday at the Mello investment conference on behalf of Strategic Equity Capital/Gresham House. They of course have a large holding in INSE, and Ken ran through a few companies in their portfolio. INSE was one of the companies he highlighted.

In particular it was good to hear him confirm that he and other large shareholders had been consulted and approved the recent renegotiation of the Ignite deferred consideration.

[rivaldo] 22/5/2023 12:57

Liberum say Buy with a 20p valuation. Here's their summary and conclusion:

"Inspired announces a Deed of variation signed with the vendors of Ignite. It provides maximum additional consideration of £9.25m. We make four key points: 1) The new earn-out requires delivery of certain targets, which our analysis shows, are stretching. 2) The statement says the additional contingent consideration (CC) is self-funding. 3) The purpose is to incentivise the Ignite management. 4) The
acquisition of Ignite remains an attractive deal, with a possible CY 24 EV/EBITDA of 2.7x. We maintain our BUY recommendation and TP of 20p; A CY 23 P/E of 9.4x
represents growth at a reasonable price."

"We maintain our BUY recommendation and TP of 20p; A CY 23 P/E of 9.4x represents growth at a reasonable price

We maintain our BUY recommendation and TP of 20p; A CY 23 P/E of 9.4x represents growth at a reasonable price. The strong credentials should become a positive share price driver, even though Inspired still trades like an energy company. Using a sum of the parts, we derive our target price of 20p."

[1gw] 22/5/2023 12:33

At the end of the day it was a negotiation. The vendors could have left at the end of this year (original earn-out arrangements ran as far as FY23 financial performance) and INSE management had to decide what the chance of them wanting to stay on anyway (i.e. without additional specific incentive) was, and what would be the likely impact on the business were they to leave.

Having determined that they wanted the vendors to stay on and guide the business through the next few years, it's then just a question of how much they have to pay to achieve that and how to structure the payments and success criteria. Some of the elements look a bit odd, such as the incentive to recover the debt from the big customer, but that's what happens in a negotiation - in order to stay within both sides' "red lines" you sometimes end up with compromise solutions that neither side might have argued for initially.

We can try to second guess what might have happened without a new incentive arrangement, and we can speculate that after such a long transition INSE ought to have been able to find suitably capable replacement leadership for Ignite, but the reality is we don't know how important the vendors' continued involvement is.

At the very least, I take this morning's announcement as an encouraging comment on current performance of Ignite and its management team, and confirmation of exciting potential for the future of the business.

[1224saj] 22/5/2023 11:54

Self funding I understand, but why is that money not filtering down to the battered shareholders by way of special dividend

[rivaldo] 22/5/2023 10:43

Overall this looks promising for INSE imo, extending the timeline for the Ignite consideration out to 2027 and presumably locking in their management until then for a growth phase which could transform INSE.

Obviously the preferable option would be no additional consideration, but it's easy to see that Covid knocked out two years of calculations for the initial agreement, so a renegotiation was always on the cards and getting consensus on strategy through to 2027 strikes me as a good thing.

[earwacks] 22/5/2023 10:04

Entirely self funding incentive plan for Energised’s own performance to beat forecasts.
Yet again the market does not understand. Value will out. There a lot of very thick fund managers out there. Ken Wotton is not one of them!

[1224saj] 22/5/2023 09:54

Solid opinion of the situation

[melody9999] 22/5/2023 08:50

"This Deed will re-incentivise the Vendors, as management recognise that the Vendors have only had one full year of the three to demonstrate the full scale of the opportunity due to Covid-19 disruption."

Huh - sorry but thats life. Shareholders investing their wealth in INSE have seen their shares decrease in value by 50%+ over that time.

Disclosure - I have not been a INSE s/holder over the past 3 years so this is not sour grapes - just a view from the sidelines. I will probably stay just watching now whilst the 2.6M shares issued to IGNITE further dilute s/holders that have paid good money.

[melody9999] 22/5/2023 08:36

IGNITE - Goodness - the 4 Higgins received £11M from the deal, they have £19M possible from the existing deal.....and now it seems they will earn possibly £9.25M more.

How much money do these people need?

In addition they are being paid partly in shares.

If they were like the rest of us, they would be happy with the share price appreciation as that would increase their wealth...and provide the incentive that they seemingly need.

When you have that much mnoney, are you really hungry to work harder just because even more money is available?

I don't think this a good deal for anyone. For me it brings into question the decision making of Mark and the INSE board.

[1gw] 22/5/2023 06:35

That's an encouraging rns.

[rivaldo] 10/5/2023 21:30

Nice 250,000 share buy at the full 12.5p offer reported after the close, coming after a 300,000 buy also at 12.5p just before the close.

[1224saj] 10/5/2023 14:58

This is going north of 0.18. Weak holders will start to dump at 0.14 the 52 week high

[1224saj] 10/5/2023 10:56

Selling 200000 at 0.1189, this is going higher, big buy order waiting to be filled

[1gw] 09/5/2023 13:29

Looks like MI Chelverton have sold 9.5m then, comparing this holdings notice with the 57m holding (as of February) shown on the site.

[diesel] 09/5/2023 10:35

And more large trades!

[rivaldo] 05/5/2023 12:39

Good to see another tick up on large volumes again - bodes well.

[diesel] 05/5/2023 11:18

Yup, big trades going through again…

[1224saj] 05/5/2023 11:12

Wow, somebody's hungry for stock this morning. I offered to sell yesterday 200000 and got offered 0.1135

[1224saj] 04/5/2023 11:17

This should have pe north of 12 which would give us 18p fair value per share

[rivaldo] 04/5/2023 11:12

Continuing to rise - but at 11,25p still on a P/E of just 8.2 given the forecast 1.37p EPS this year.

[diesel] 02/5/2023 12:44

Spotted that Riv. Been watching this one carefully for a little while now, price recovery seems well under way now.

[rivaldo] 02/5/2023 11:21

5.5m shares in two trades at 10.5p just reported late from Friday - so presumably buys and hopefully clearing an overhang given the tick up now.