Team Internet Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 13/11/2023 09:03

Zeus-
9M2023 results

Team Internet delivered 16% revenue growth, well ahead of peers. Online Presence grew faster than Online Marketing as the popularity of alternative domains continued to grow and whilst the digital advertising market remained weak. However, the Online Marketing division continued to outperform the sector and now appears well positioned to benefit from a sector recovery. The company also continued to benefit from operating leverage and, more significantly, share buybacks. As a result, Adj EBITDA rose 11% and Adj EPS rose 28% yoy. We leave our forecasts unchanged, which leaves room for some outperformance. Despite Q4 being a seasonally strong quarter, our Q4 EBITDA and Adj EPS represent only 25% and 18% of our full year forecasts, respectively. Also, shares trade at only 5.4x EBITDA 2023 and with a 13.8% FCFF yield.

♦ Group performance at least in line: 9M2023 revenue rose 16% yoy to $611.7m. Gross profit grew at a slower 8% to $138.5m since gross margin fell to 22.6% from 24.4%. But EBITDA grew at a faster 11% to $68.8m due to operating leverage and expense management. Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of gross profit increased to 50% from 48% a year ago. Moreover, EPS grew 28% to $17.6 cents, supported by share buybacks equal to 6% of previous shares outstanding. The company has remaining authority to buyback £13.3m of shares under the expanded programme announced on 3 July 2023.

♦ Online Marketing accelerates: 9M2023 revenue grew 15% to $474.7m. The number of visitor sessions increased by 36% to 5.6bn for the trailing twelve months (TTM) to 30 September 2023, more than offsetting the 7% fall in RPM (revenue per thousand sessions) $97, which represents outperformance in a weak digital advertising market. 9M2023 gross margin was 19.9%, down from 21.5% a year ago, resulting in gross profit growth of 6%.

♦ Online Presence outperforms sector: 9M2023 revenue grew 20% to $137.0m, driven by the the increasing popularity of alternative domains. The number of processed domain registration years increased by 11% to 14.1m for TTM to 30 September 2023 and the average revenue per domain year increased by 8% to $10.81. 9M2023 gross margin was 32.3%, down from 34.5% a year ago, resulting in gross profit growth of 15%.

♦ Cash and conversion to improve: Net cash was $81.7m, which would have risen by $26.6m before shares buybacks ($30.2m), dividend ($3.6m) and deferred consideration payments ($17.9m). Cash conversion is expected to improve in Q4 as Adjusted operating cash conversion normalises to 100% from 95% in 9M2023.

♦ Confident outlook with some room to outperform: The company is confident ahead of the seasonally strong final quarter and expects to deliver results at least in line with expectations. We conservatively do not change our forecasts, leaving some room for outperformance. Despite the a seasonally Q4, our Q4 revenue, gross profit, EBITDA and Adj EPS represent only 26%, 25%, 25% and 18% for our full year forecasts, respectively.

♦ Attractive valuation: Shares trade at only 5.4x EBITDA 2023 and with an attractive 13.8% FCFF yield

[davebowler] 13/11/2023 09:01

Cavendish-
Investment case – strong organic and inorganic growth from a robust marketplace platform – As we explain in more depth in our initiation, TIG is capitalising upon the complementary opportunity for its Online Presence and Online Marketing divisions. Following investment through 2021 and 2022, the group is primed to benefit from platform economies of scale, which can be accelerated by its proven ability to acquire companies at attractive multiples, generate cost savings, and drive cross selling. Its strong cash generation provides excellent scope to reduce net debt, expand shareholder returns, and/or fund future M&A.

[slogsweep] 13/11/2023 08:31

The sell off begins , not surprising on past experience. Debt too high and buy backs just seem to be money down the drain. Pay off the debt and start paying a decent divi would work better in my view. If this company was debt free and paying 5% it would not be on a PE of 5. An ideal share for an IHT ISA if they did that. Clearly too small a company for any wide spread institutional interest who want buybacks for tax reasons.

[adamb1978] 13/11/2023 08:31

Yes, decent set of results, in particular the topline continuing to grow very strongly despite difficult market conditions. QoQ turnover was up from $202m to $215m, which is excellent.

Looks like they'll beat the upper end of revenue expectations - $840m - $850m looks more realistic to me and then probably around $98m EBITDA.

I think they'll reach the buyback limit this quarter so will be interesting to see whether they call a EGM to get greater authority, but if not then the cash generation will reduce debt, which I'm equally happy with.

All good!

[rivaldo] 13/11/2023 07:45

Good to see that results continue to be expected to be "at least in line with expectations".

Zeus's forecast for this year is 21.3c EPS, so with 17.6c EPS in the bag at the end of Q3, and Q4 bring the strongest quarter of the year, CNIC look nailed on to beat expectations.

Online Marketing has obviously slowed in the current climate, but Online Presence is knocking the ball out of the park in outperforming and offsetting any marketing weakness with "its highest ever organic revenue growth" at 17%. Although Online Marketing still increased its number of visitor sessions by 36%.

CNIC still look very good value on an EV/EBITDA of only around 5 and a P/E of around 7, which will fall again assuming CNIC beat expectations and with next's EPS forecast to rise nicely to 25.1c EPS from 21.3c EPS.

[rik shaw] 13/11/2023 07:28

Nine months unaudited results to 30 September 2023

[adamb1978] 12/11/2023 11:27

Yes, expecting them to be good. We had the TU which pointed to the year heading towards being ahead of expectations, so expecting good Q3s and confirmation of them being better

[diesel] 12/11/2023 11:07

Interims tomorrow.

[boadicea] 31/10/2023 08:46

For some time now the daily purchases announced have been a single large trade. Does this imply they have all originated from the same seller or is it just that they have passed through an aggregator who has bundled them and charged an average price? No single trade for the quantity shown ever appears.

[cp42kx07] 25/10/2023 18:38

Or ADVFN ?

[cp42kx07] 25/10/2023 18:37

Yahoo Finance?

[azaman] 25/10/2023 18:33

Can anyone suggest a free website where I can see trade volume, please?

[adamb1978] 25/10/2023 07:54

Crikey ggrantsu!

Your posts are usually quite balanced and unemotional...the ones in the last day or two make me think someone has nicked your advfn log-in!!!

"the market already knows the upcoming results should be fine, while the company buys back a considerable amount of stock...that tells you that there is a wider lack of interest in this company because of fundamental risks with the business."

There' a wide lack of interest in small-caps as an asset class as a whole! If you think TIG's share price has performed poorly, have a look at the rest of the market!

Your closing comment in the above part doesnt flow - you're taking an effect (weak share price) and making up a cause (risks) despite not being able to link one with the other. I repeat what I said above: the market is very weak at the moment - TIG's share price is doing well on a relative basis.

"am slightly confounded to the lack of 1) Michael buying and 2) the sudden ceasing of Max Royde buying. Bit odd but I'm not convinced its suspicious...just an observation."

Riedl owns about 2m shares plus has another 1.5m options - think he's quite nicely incentivised to get the share price up

Royde is the investment director at Kestrel as you well know. Its perfectly possible taht the rest of their fund is underwater given they invest in small-caps and tech and therefore that they can't commit more capital to TIG (they'll have rules which they need to stick to re exposure to any one company) - need to consider the bigger picture!!

[ggrantsu] 24/10/2023 21:21

Hardly inconsistent language is it...I have a smaller holding that is halved but still on an absolute basis a decent size...(previously it was very large)...

[mcdougall1] 24/10/2023 17:35

"I also was out of this in two tranches at 130 and then 123..."
"I still have a smaller holding for now..."
"Still have decent holding"

Make your mind up ggrantsu

[ggrantsu] 24/10/2023 16:37

All companies have them - but there is no doubt TIG is somewhat higher than the average because of its very very significant exposure/reliance on google + the company now primarily being driven by TONIC...which operates in a space (ad-tech) which very few people have made long term money out of.

I like TIG...and have done well over the years out of it. But it's become increasingly uncomfortable to watch management claim the business is things it isn't...it was odd at the CMD (albeit a good day) to watch management dedicate just as much time to things like parkingcrew vs. TONIC...and not drill down into the numbers to explain how irrelevant one is vs. the other. I don't want to believe that people are being nefarious...but its bad communication.

Still have decent holding and hopefully one day we will wake up to a bid having been received. Agree re management skin in the game...am slightly confounded to the lack of 1) Michael buying and 2) the sudden ceasing of Max Royde buying. Bit odd but I'm not convinced its suspicious...just an observation.

[diesel] 24/10/2023 16:10

Agree with last posts, there is an exposure that is a risk, all businesses have them, and something is dragging this back every time we think the potential is being recognised. However, the profile of the investors here is significant over 60% owned by institutions and most, apart from well respected Slater, are linked to the company. There is a lot of management skin in this.

[ggrantsu] 24/10/2023 13:48

I also was out of this in two tranches at 130 and then 123...while I figure out how I want to play this. I don't necessarily worry about the current drop...that is a symptom of the current market and just the sheer lack of liquidity. My concern is as you describe it: the market already knows the upcoming results should be fine, while the company buys back a considerable amount of stock...that tells you that there is a wider lack of interest in this company because of fundamental risks with the business.

Although there are broad market liquidity issues, its the way the business works which concerns me with 50-60% of the business now driven by TONIC - altogether a complete black box enigma, even for those like me who have spent many days digging into it. It would be fine if the Company was more honest about this very concentrated exposure...but it is like management tries to ignore it. An example was a recent RNS describing wins for Parkingcrew / Voluum...these are literally no more than a few % of the Group and basically irrelevant...but the Company constantly preaches diversification. At presentations, the Group almost talks as if these little add on businesses are major drivers for the Group - they are irrelevant.

The reality is it isn't diversified at all...if TONIC goes wrong then its a disaster. I still have a smaller holding for now...but did reduce considerably as think there are equally as cheap names out there (e.g. Future)which are more forecastable...ultimately, TIG is completely unforecastable because of TONIC and management's terrible disclosure policies. Best one can hope for here is a takeover by a house who are willing to take on the risks around TONIC / Google contract. As an example of market pricing - Plus500 is generating considerably more cash and returning much more to shareholders, and in my view is considerably less risky - yet it is trading much cheaper than TIG. I just don't think I can continue to look through my emotional biases towards this company, which I've invested in for a good while now!

[cyberbub] 24/10/2023 13:31

I'm afraid I sold out my 50k shares this morning, at a small 2% loss. Mr Market already knows that the upcoming results should be good. I can only assume that there is a large seller who is perhaps accelerating their offload, and overwhelming the buyback. I'm waiting to see a volume spike when they've perhaps finished selling out, which could mark the turn. Of course there could be some other company problem that inside traders are aware of also, it's hard to tell. The very low P/E here is unusual and would normally be a great sign, but something's not quite right so I'm out (for now). Good luck to all who are still in.

[doobz] 24/10/2023 11:38

Results should be decent in a few weeks time at least

[azaman] 24/10/2023 11:29

Let's analyze the share price movement.
SP goes up when :
1. Demand surpasses supply <-- with the buyback happening, at some point,
demand will surpass supply
2. Expectation of good news

SP goes down when :
1. Supply surpasses demand
2. Expectation of bad news
3. MM marks it down to generate business
4. MM adjusts share price to balance its portfolio <-- this is what I believe is
happening

[doobz] 24/10/2023 10:28

Despite all this Hope the share price continues to push lows, impossible to do well in this market

[cyberbub] 19/10/2023 12:28

Yes I saw that, I'd just been worried that the buyback had finished!