Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 19/5/2020 20:47

boonboon - thanks for joining some of the dots. Of course, the other question is whether TOTAL self tanning demand is up on previous years. My gut reaction would be no. But unless John Lewis added significantly to its tanning range this year, it looks like the answer is yes. Why else would sales there be up over 40% since lockdown, when their department stores have all been shut?

[boonboon] 19/5/2020 20:21

Boots will be down significantly. The majority of SkinnyTan products have been out of stock online. Presumably as they're prioritising more essential products. Even now 18 out of 24 SkinnyTan products are still out of stock. Superdrug has-been much better. They have had lots out of stock, but have more regularly topped up stock levels. Currently they have 6 products out of stock from 30.I don't expect we'll be doing much in store sales at the moment. Tesco is an interesting one as their stores are obviously busier so might be see some in store sales there. I think our Dtc will be doing better than last year it made up about 57% of sales last year. I expect it to be 80% to 90% this year. I also expect the likes of lookfantastic and Feelunique to be up this year, but nowhere near enough to offset the in store decline. I'm hoping for somewhere between £500,00 to £1million from the USA and anywhere from £10million to £13million overall. Looking forward the coronavirus could actually help us in the long run. Although overall sales are likely to be down I expect we'll have significantly added to our dtc customer base. So we'll be able to directly market to more people in future than we would have without the coronavirus. Also when shops do open up again and people can go out to see other people I expect sales will do well. Especially if people aren't going abroad on holidays this year. I expect this years tanning season to be extended and can see a good first half of the next financial year.

[lord loads of lolly] 19/5/2020 19:25

Bricks & mortar retail sales will undoubtedly be down. But online will be up. So the question is how efficient are online operations at Boots, SD etc. In the case of John Lewis, the overall impact on self-tanninghas been significantly positive.

[shandypants2] 19/5/2020 16:34

Lolly i hope i am wrong.

However, the evidence i have seen does not look encouraging. My local small Boots is operating a 1 in 1 out policy so is almost 100% prescription only ATM and city centres are pretty empty too so the big stores must be suffering too.
As an example i think WH Smiths said they were 84% down in April v last year.
Also all the retailers did big orders in Q3 so these will need to sell out before re-ordering.
Finally IDP themselves said retail had slowed down in their RNS in April.


I agree re DTC, hopefully this could have actually increased due to lockdown.

SO whilst i don't think it's all doom and gloom - good DTC and big retail orders in Q3 etc - IMHO revenues will be slightly down on last year

[lord loads of lolly] 19/5/2020 14:06

shandypants2 - Sorry, but I think you're wrong about ST sales since lockdown. On 8 May, BBC reported a 41% increase in John Lewis' self tanning sales since 24 March. See point 3 here: That'll all be online and the same should broadly apply to ST's third party retailers. Plus ST has a strong DTC channel, which others don't.

[shandypants2] 19/5/2020 12:05

Eddie,whilst i agree with DTC sales hopefully H2 results won't be terrible (how many companies are making zero revenue at the moment?) just to manage your expectations i expect retail to be massively down in Q4. Logic is that Boots, SD etc did big orders in Q3 in advance of peak season and since then whilst still open social distancing has minimised retail sales, other than food.

In terms of US and Australia , neither of these bring in big revenues (less than 10% of total revenue for IDP) and both are predominantly DTC only.
South Africa and NZ are minimal - i expect less than £100k revenue a year. For example Roots has a SA website but as Roots revenues are going down guessing revenues are very low.

On the positive no foreign travel could help ST sales in the UK.
Overall i'll be happy with say £12m rev and c£1m PBT. Next year hopefully NUTHING will kick on and if Roots rebranding is successful 2021 could be a bumper year.

[dmk1198] 18/5/2020 20:33

A shrewd investor looking to double his money at a guess

[57eady eddie] 17/5/2020 15:23

And this drop on Friday on low volumes suggest to me that there's a large buy order that the MMs want to fill asap

[57eady eddie] 17/5/2020 15:21

Just looking at some notes i made from end of Feb. Basically they were anticipating a 'very big second half' to this year. Yes Covid will have hit things but I've got a feeling that they won't feel tne same hit as competitors. For starters there's the strong DTC. IDPs retail stores have remained open to an extent. And there's such strong product innovation being rolled out in USA, Aus, NZ and S.Africa. I think the market is going to underestimate this company and as news comes we'll see re-rates.

[doc robinson] 13/5/2020 22:28

He must know something we do not! Time will tell asusual.

[coldspring] 13/5/2020 16:48

Mark Ward now owning over 5 percent, just who is this dude and why does he want IDP

[frrinvest] 13/5/2020 15:04

Yeh deffo big buys in the midst. A bid or something else?

[doc robinson] 13/5/2020 14:25

Someone still accumulating may get a holding RNS shortly.

[connor23] 13/5/2020 13:35

I've given up on spelling in the Covid-19 environment! ?

[connor23] 13/5/2020 13:34

Cheers Rob. Hopefully less churn going forward and we can start to see some bigger moves upwards. Not long until we no what FY results will look like and the value of the DTC business.

[tallprawn] 13/5/2020 13:24

Another big buy there - More accumulation underway. Shares being transferred to sticky holders. Good news.

[glavey] 11/5/2020 21:40

The mind boggles.

That said, real suntanning is back on the menu.

[coldspring] 11/5/2020 17:33

I live with 3 women and they have more time to pamper themselves currently. Hair is getting treated, face masks are on once a week and the skinny tan is in use. Footnote 2 of the 3 are daughters I am no Adonis.

[lord loads of lolly] 11/5/2020 17:13

glavey - that was my initial reaction too. But according to the Beeb - - John Lewis reports "self-tanning products have risen 41% since 24 March". No reason why it should be any different for ST. In fact, the trend is likely to be greater with ST, due to their higher concentration of online DTC sales.

[glavey] 11/5/2020 16:45

"That will help drive more users of spray tan stores to our DTC platform looking for DIY tan for a good few weeks yet."

Why would anyone be bothered about that if no one else is going to see it?

[tallprawn] 11/5/2020 12:03

No reopening of hairdressers and personal beauty stores until at least July as per the update from Dominic Raab earlier this morning. That will help drive more users of spray tan stores to our DTC platform looking for DIY tan for a good few weeks yet.Meanwhile - Finncap are still sat on the Bid and continue to collect stock from sellers comfortably. It looks likely to me like they have a buyer behind the scenes.