Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[anony mous] 30/9/2019 08:41

Lowest share price in 3 years at 69p

[gleach23] 30/9/2019 08:04

Think you got the stick end of the wrong regarding that post PUGUGLY

[pugugly] 27/9/2019 17:59

21348> Have never seen a better post here - Could not agree more - share price still far too high. Tiddlers usually get squashed in the toiletry market.

[eastbourne1982] 27/9/2019 17:16

Evening cherubs,

What free cash flow is IDP doing.

That is the crux of a good business not profits massaged by accounting tricks.

[lord loads of lolly] 27/9/2019 15:17

Quite - but I wouldn't hold your breath for any enlightenment, shandypants2

[shandypants2] 27/9/2019 12:08

Eastbourne a dog of a business?

IDP has no debt has just generated £1.4m profit of revenue of £13m has expanded by 20% in each of the last 2 years and is forecast to do the same for the next 2.

If this is a dog I would love to see a good one.

Please enlighten me

[lord loads of lolly] 26/9/2019 22:20

Eastbourne1982 - No point in engaging with you further, as your views seem based on nothing more than random hunches. Goodbye.

[eastbourne1982] 26/9/2019 19:15

My view on IDP is you can make money on the shares over the next few months / years however years down the line it won't exist, in all honesty it's a dog of a business.

[lord loads of lolly] 26/9/2019 18:39

I’d judge him on whether he delivers the numbers. Instead of basing anything on your personal fantasies.

[eastbourne1982] 26/9/2019 17:21

You can normally look at a CEO and work out if you trust them or not.

I look at Haris Chaudhry and wonder if he's the kind of chap who would rummage through your silverware whilst you were in the kitchen putting the kettle on !

[spoonfed1] 26/9/2019 12:35

Watching activity on Lloyds and missed this. Invested a while ago for the bottom drawer. Seems it will stay that way. Reasonable result but it will get tougher from here.

[lord loads of lolly] 26/9/2019 11:29

jackson750 - You make some valid points, but seem to be overlooking the potential growth from Roots and in particular Prolong. The latter has already generated a distribution agreement with a contractual minimum order quantity of 6000 units in year 1. Even at say a 60% discount to retail price, that would represent $720,000 in sales. And it's high margin.

[jackson750] 26/9/2019 11:20

Incremental marketing costs over £1m for incremental sales £2m.. 60% of revenue is DTC... Most revenue from Skinny Tan.... Retail is fickle and small brands tend to go backwards (marketing/brand-wise) during off-season which needs to be paid for again and again every year to get back to where the previous season ended. Not hard to see why they needed to spend so much more on marketing to get so little extra revenue. Clearly growing skinny tan has already become extremely challenging.

[bigfrocks] 26/9/2019 08:44

Whatever spin you but on this the share price is ridiculous on the back of that news!

[lord loads of lolly] 26/9/2019 08:15

Otherwise, it would be trading on a current PE of 6 with a forward PE of less than 5. That's not going to happen to any company which has steadily grown sales and profit for several years. I agree the price could go lower still, either if targets are missed or if the political/economic climate worsens.

[lord loads of lolly] 26/9/2019 08:05

Less a question of looking at the story than examining the numbers. If we get £2m PBT in FY20 (and admittedly that's still an if), the share price will move significantly above 80p.

[backtogo] 25/9/2019 21:21

I suspect this will go lower than most expect. It's usually the case when only a select few believe the story. I would wait for top ups

[lord loads of lolly] 25/9/2019 15:23

Here's the official answer (though it all sounds a bit tenuous to me):
Not sure a takeover is on the cards any time soon. Who'd buy a retailer or wholesaler right now (other than Mike Ashley - and look where that got him with HOF). But if FY20 targets are met, a re-rating looks inevitable. You'd struggle to pick up growth stocks in any sector, whose PEs are in the low to mid single figures.

[jackson750] 25/9/2019 15:00

The name probably should have changed after the Dragons Den investors sold out. I presume everyone still knows it as the Dragons Den fake tan.

No real change here, marginally surprised at the rapid rate the share price has fallen but 70p remains a sensible time to buy as a gamble in the hope of another t/o.

[eastbourne1982] 25/9/2019 13:23

Speak for yourself, I'm not sure I've seen many chubby Costa customers downing a skinny latte !

More likely to be downing a double mocha with a large slice of chocolate cake.

[lord loads of lolly] 25/9/2019 12:59

More aspirational than offputting I suspect. After all, we've all seen plenty of plumply proportioned Costa punters sipping their skinny lattes. The brand name won't change now anyway, as it's too well-established, having had a lot of marketing investment.

[eastbourne1982] 25/9/2019 12:41

Is Skinny Tan a good name or does it alienate people who carry too much poundage.

[lord loads of lolly] 25/9/2019 11:34

backtogo - Maybe the market is questioning whether it can double profits next FY, given the twin unknowns of Haris Chaudhry & Brexit. But a PBT of just over £1m this year on sales of £12.8m is none too shabby. That gives a current PE of around 11. And assuming their forecast £2m PBT is met next FY, the PE ratio would reduce to around 5.5. That's extremely low for a decent growth company, with major UK & worldwide retail listings. Especially when they've delivered on this year's targets. I've been saying for a while now that Prolong could be a major game-changer, given its high retail price and margin. IDP is certainly on my radar for a top-up, once the Brexit outcome finally becomes clear.