Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 21/1/2018 14:33

Let’s see

[teddy boy1] 21/1/2018 14:20

JOHN 09 You are not thinking that somewhere between £1.60 and £1.70 is on the cards .You are HOPING! Methinks you are going to be disappointed!

[john09] 21/1/2018 13:23

I think this stock is in for a rough couple of weeks so hold on tight if you believe if it long term, the stock price action is very bearish

[connor23] 21/1/2018 13:13

Can't see that before the Feb update. Surely after an inline statement holders will want to see some detail.Some credit for developing their own shampoo product and bringing it to mkt in short time frame should be given to the company no? Particularly as it appears to have launched successfully.

[john09] 21/1/2018 11:42

£2 psychological support at risk here. Still think this is a £30m quoted market stall selling fake tan . The speed of the fall from £2.70 is an absolute shocker


I think somewhere between £1.60 and £1.70 is on the cards

[teddy boy1] 20/1/2018 18:00

SORRY, MEAN;T QUIET

[teddy boy1] 20/1/2018 11:37

Suddenly gone very quite on here! (must be missing my contribution)

[kemche] 19/1/2018 13:42

Agreed Melf.

[teddy boy1] 19/1/2018 12:58

CONTINUED it does not mean that their is suddenly wrong with the company .If they just accept that the share price has been "massaged"and that it does not represent the true value of the company AND HOLD ON TO ALL THEIR SHARES then the DTB would not be able to have us over a barrel! I appreciate that in a NORMAL market there will always be people selling for personal reasons but the sales over the past 3 or 4 months have been extreme to say the least.
In conclusion always think twice before disposing of any IDP shares and if there is no good reason to sell (apart from the worked down price )HOLD ON TO THEM (they are precious!) BYE FOR NOW!

[melf] 19/1/2018 12:55

My word, you guys that haven't filtered our resident guru must have been suffering some real tosh over the past few days. Anony Mous, the filter option is a wonderful thing - believe me.

[teddy boy1] 19/1/2018 12:40

Anonymous Exactly what I intend doing.If I have just managed to get through to a few people that just because the share price goes downm

[wskill] 19/1/2018 12:39

I have to wait for dull days to top up as have tried in the recent past to build up my holding here it is impossible you end up buying 1 or 2 k at a time also every buy moves the price .
Will be a buyer as well at 180p if we ever reach that level best of luck with that one.

[che7win] 19/1/2018 12:35

I think you mean MTFB longshanks.

Six buys on the trot now.

[longshanks] 19/1/2018 12:31

Too much puff in this at the moment IMO for any serious investment.I'm a buyer at £1.80 on speculative appeal.

[kemche] 19/1/2018 11:51

AM, :)

Bloody MM's !!!!!!!!!!

[wskill] 19/1/2018 11:48

Another top up for me 6k at 205 too cheap with growth prospects .

[anony mous] 19/1/2018 11:41

TeddyTake your own advice....As you say sit back relax etcBe quiet for abit and post less.

[che7win] 19/1/2018 11:20

Teddy, Market never ignores explosive growth as IDP is doing.Look at ratings of Boo, fdev, g4m, croas and others.None sit at forward p/e 11 as here.Don't be surprised when these bounce, the market is just waiting on the turn point.

[teddy boy1] 19/1/2018 11:12

Che7win Being a big fan myself, of IDP I would not disagree with anything that you have said apart from where you state that you do not understand why the market has sold off.

It looks like the market has sold off but I would argue that those who know about these things have not sold off and are still strongly holding and even topping up. It is the other ,perhaps 70 per cent,( the ones with the herd instinct) who have been SCARED off by EBGINEERED falling share prices !

Harris has stated that he will achieve his full year target but he still has to prove it to all those "doubters" (share holders tend to be on the cautious by nature!)so until we are in receipt of the full years results and he proves that his methods work, this share will "suffer".

We will have a few up days along the way especially when we get a press release giving some encouraging news but most of the time we will be left pondering why the share price is not a lot higher ( I WILL NOT because I know why !)

The best advice is ,if you really believe in HC and IDP is to sit tight for the next 6 months and take the knock backs but with a smile on your face because you know that we will win through handsomely in the end!

[che7win] 19/1/2018 10:40

Harris - if you are reading this - you did a good interview - no problems.

But - the market needs more news flow - its being starved, you've swung too far.

I expect they will release plenty of news this H2:

"As in prior years and as stated at the time of the final results in September, the Company expects revenue and profit growth to be strongly weighted to the second half. This reflects the momentum created in the first half as peak tanning season approaches. In addition, entry into new markets together with new product launches such as Roots, Charles + Lee, StevieK Cosmetics and Prolong are expected to feed through to substantial revenue and profit growth in the second half of the year.



The Board remains confident in meeting market expectations for the current financial year and has much greater revenue visibility for the second half than in prior years."

[che7win] 19/1/2018 10:32

So, lets just look at the IDP FinnCap broker forecasts logically. These figures are taken from the broker update as of 16th January 2018 - latest figures.

As of yesterday at 210p:

2018 forecast: Pre tax profit: £2.4m
EPS: 11.5p

2019 forecast: Pre tax profit: £3.9m
EPS: 18.3p

Lets look at EPS growth: 2017 actual EPS growth 190%
2018 estimated EPS growth: 70.25%
2019 estimated EPS growth: 60%

So actual PER is currently 30.9 against 190% growth last year.

Looking at forecast EPS growth for this year of 70%, we are on forecast P/E 18 currently.
To spell it out, we arguably should be 3 times the current share price on growth.
I think boonboon made this comment in his excellent post earlier this week and 600p price target.

Look at the forecast P/E for 2019 - it is sitting at 11.39! Against the growth, this is mispriced.

Even if we average the next two years forecast growth in EPS of 70% and 60%, we get 65% growth - yet we sit at a forecast P/E of 18 for this year and 11.39 for 2019.

Lets look at the PEG ratio - anything below 1 is reflective of a cheap stock against growth:
Current PEG for 2017 is 0.16, for 2018 is 0.26 and for 2019 is 0.19.
I've never seen a stock with a PEG this low - its hard to understand why we aren't sitting above 300p right now.


In other words, the PEG shows that this is a screaming GARP stock - should be multiples of the current price - hence I'm buying.

My 300p target is really rather cheap, the house broker has 400p, why the market sold this off I don't know - Harris has stated categorically in his interview this year that we will meet this years forecasts and the company is expanding rapidly.

[quant_investor] 19/1/2018 10:24

Hi Muz. I think the calc illustrates just how H2 weighted this year is looking.

I was expecting more than 31% top line growth given there are a number of new retailers that didn't contribute to H1 17 (Boots, ASOS etc.) also there will have been a modest contribution from Roots too. Therefore LFL growth sales from DTC and SD materially lower than 31%?

GLA