Informa Share Discussion Threads

[kenmill] 05/3/2009 10:39

Not sure about the rights issue. The divi cut may be enough if you believe the statement. Yes - with the benefit of hindsight - 450p does look rather attractive now but let's see what it looks like in 12 months time. I still think it will be well north of this price then. It rather depends whether we are near the bottom globally or whether there is more bad news to come on the global banking front. Until that gets sorted out there is not much chance of recovery anywhere.
I would like to know why the "bad bank" option hasn't been used to clear the banks' balance sheets. The main potential reason is that the banks don't want to go through all their bad news in detail because their position is even worse than they are admitting and they are hoping to muddle through without admitting it. If that is the case, this is going to go on for a long time.

[mw8156] 28/2/2009 15:27

looks as though we are heading for a rights issue a bit of a kick in the teeth for shareholders as they rejected the 450p offer last year...

[kenmill] 05/2/2009 16:47

A lot depends on the forward looking statement on 4th March now and how bad the economic news is for the next few months. The world is still not a happy place. The divi is a comfort at this level and that looks safe.

[the_doctor] 04/2/2009 18:31

Interesting article

Points out that Rigby did ask major shareholders if they wanted to accept the bid ... .and clearly they voted no - contrary to the view of one painful character here!

[kenmill] 04/2/2009 17:14

Reasonable interview with Peter Rigby in the FT today

"Severity of downturn threatens normally defensive sector
By Salamander Davoudi

Published: February 4 2009 02:00 | Last updated: February 4 2009 02:00

Peter Rigby is agitated when he talks about the past 12 months at the helm of publisher Informa. "Bloody horrific" is how he describes moments of it.

The company's share price has fallen almost 45 per cent in the past year after a string of failed approaches. Yesterday the shares were trading at 235p.

Preliminary discussions about a merger of equals with rival UBM collapsed in June. Only 18 months earlier Informa was offered, and rejected, 630p a share from Springer Science & Media, the academic publisher.

In July the company opened its books for a private equity consortium led by Providence, which had made a 506p a share indicative proposal.

"We allowed the private equity guys three weeks' access at the beginning of July. They said they didn't want any more, but when we got to September it had seemed to drag on a little bit," Mr Rigby says.

But during the summer, financing conditions deteriorated, other suitors dropped away and by early September the consortium had dropped its bid to 450p, which was rejected.

Then Lehman Brothers collapsed, credit markets were in meltdown and the leveraged deal fell apart. Many analysts say rejecting the 450p-a-share bid was a "blatant mistake". Mr Rigby denies rumours that the decision split the board.

"Had the offer come three weeks later [after Lehman's collapse] and we had gone back to the same shareholders and said what do you think, well it was a different world," he says.

Informa has received no contact from UBM since last April and no further contact with the private equity consortium. "If they approached us we would be duty-bound to consider it, but it has not happened," Mr Rigby says.

However, with net debt to earnings of about 3.8 times in December, Informa is seen by the market as over-leveraged and in risk of breaching its banking covenants this year, according to a recent Morgan Stanley research note. The company's debt stands at about £1.2bn.

Mr Rigby says he has not approached the company's banks for a covenant waiver and does not expect to breach covenant tests at the end of June or in September.

"The ability to reduce debt quickly through asset disposals would make sense as long as you can get the right price. It is hard to sell things these days," he adds.

With this in mind, Informa is in talks over a sale of Robbins-Gioia, a consultancy that advises the US government on areas such as compliance and risk. A sale could raise £80m, but no price has been agreed.

Mr Rigby says: "We have not earmarked any businesses for disposal because we don't feel forced into that situation, but we do have approaches. We can, if we need to, parcel things up that don't tear the heart out of the businesses."

There is no doubt, however, that the severity of the economic downturn is threatening the traditionally defensive business-to-business sector as costs are slashed and global travel slows.

During the 2001-03 slowdown, Informa saw a 12 per cent downturn in revenues in 2002. Operating margins also dropped from 15.8 per cent in 2000 to 13.1 per cent in 2002.

"This [downturn] would appear to be worse because it is more sudden. We will do what is proper for the business and will look at costs on a business by business basis," Mr Rigby says.

Morgan Stanley says about half of Informa's businesses, the subscription-based publishing operations, should be resilient, but the other events businesses look vulnerable.

Trading at Informa's academic and scientific unit remains strong and there is no sense of pressure on endowments at academic institutions. "While we expect pressure on many budgets going forward, renewal rates remain strong."

Mr Rigby says that none of Informa's large-scale events, such as conferences or exhibitions, has so far been cancelled. The smaller regional events are "falling by the wayside", however, and the bulk of profits are coming from the more lucrative larger events, he says.

The company will be boosted this year from sterling's weakness because 60 per cent of revenues come from the US. UBM may also revisit the idea of a nil premium merger.

In the event of a successful merger, would he want the top job?

"Yes, probably. But I like to think that I would do the right thing for the company."

Mr Rigby is keen to stress that Informa does not necessarily see its future as independent.

"We had proper talks with UBM and we had more than proper talks with the private equity guys. We did not prepare defence documents or barricade ourselves in."

At least it refutes claims of a need for fire sales of subsidiaries and trouble with their funding.

[cambium] 12/1/2009 18:38

chart starting to look good

[kenmill] 12/1/2009 18:17

Nice UT trade went through at the end of trade - nearly 200,000 at 275p. The only worry is that the market, generally, may be more optimistic about 2009 than it should be at this stage

[25cent] 02/1/2009 16:20

Thats me stopped out good luck all.

[25cent] 30/12/2008 17:09

It must be the INF's senior boards reassurance about it not breaking its banking covenants that makes everyone sell INF as the rest of the ftse 250 recovers.
LOL

[25cent] 29/12/2008 17:35

Another typical INF day at the office again i notice today, totally ignoring the market rally again.

[25cent] 24/12/2008 01:19

Ken the worlds not listening mate that's why its collapsed more more than 60% in a few months,much more than the ftse and ftse 250 circa 25% falls despite your hollow claims about INF outperforming the ftse250 a few posts back.

Ref director buys/
I suppose this is the same phenomenally intelligent man that turned downed 575p? Get my drift Ken?
Personally if i was long like you Ken i would be a little concerned that it falls 320p on concerns if it breaching its bank covenants and facing a profits collapse in 2009 and then it goes up 17p on the board statement saying that those two things wont happen?
what does that tell you KEN?
If that news does not help the share recover what will? Its now in closed period,what the heck is going to stop this from falling now if that news had zero effect?

[kenmill] 23/12/2008 16:33

A subsidiary board director has just spent £200,000+ on shares at 224.25p. Obviously expecting it to go down to £1. If only he knew as much about the company !

[25cent] 19/12/2008 13:34

What planet are you on?
Same none Inf related post same personal attacks and
Yet again the same old lines about how i am "losing money".

Ken if it makes you feel better and helps you cope with your inadequacies then hey go for it, yes i took out a short at 150p and not 350p.

Yep despite my posting on this thread for over 6 weeks saying it would go to 150p, yep despite saying all that from 420p i waited until it went to by target low to take out my short ? LOL

I suspect you refuse to mention the company in any of your posts because your embarrassed about the fact your well aware i know a lot about it and that you will almost without doubt trip your self up.

There's only one person on this thread whom talked about breaching banking covenants 6 weeks before the board come out and admit its a concern via RNS, likewise despite your continued personal attacks and jibes about the 150p target, it went to 150.

Ken when can we expect you to post anything other than personal attacks on me?
Your like a big girl who's had the doll taken away, grow up!

Unless you start posting about INF and stop being a troll i will just filter you as its boring reading your tiresome half hearted poorly put together personal attacks.


Back to INF for any serious non trolls on the thread.

Yet again the share seems to fall a lot more easier than it goes up, what should have been a bumper day yesterday was not because traders and investors simply do not believe that INF is recession proof, and are seriously worried about default on bank debt.
All those gains given back the next day is bearish and what news now will help INF no its in close period?
Any run on the market and this will learch down to new lows imho.
I remain short!

[25cent] 19/12/2008 08:37

Ken you do really come across as a spiteful bitter person, don't take the company INF too seriously Ken its not the be all and end all in life.
I am happy to answer your questions
1 I still hope to see this figure next year however i have a stop at 250p that would still give me over 100 points profit.
Ken why are you obsessed with trying to make out i have lost money on INF?

2, The board hinted yesterday that they may need to make sales of company assets if they fail to meet the new headline checks for the debt - READ THE RNS!

3,I would not be surprised, i don't think you understand Ken that the troubles for INF are always going to be the next 12-18 months and not the last 12 months results and figures that the company talked about yesterday.
However it seems that the pound collapsing by 20-40% as saved their bacon on these figures.

4,I did and i still do, like i openly said 250p is the crux, your posting above like INF is out of the woods and will rocket upwards.
Ken believe me the market and moreover INF could larch down any day.

5 Ken you would really do better to talk about inf rather than trying to attack me.
Do you want me to post every single broker update is that what your point is? i don't understand?

Ken read my posts, unless i am responding to troll posts like yours above I TALK ABOUT INF- TRY IT KEN!

[kenmill] 18/12/2008 13:37

25cent
Re your post 280, I agree that their ability to manage 2009, particularly in relation to the conference/business side is key. The good news is that 2008 is secure and, presumably, the dividend is safe. Your reluctance to believe anything the Board says is more in line with AIM companies where the directors have no track record and, if their business fails, will never be seen again. The difference with the Board of a 250 company is that the directors have track records and, if they tell an outright lie that will become obvious in a few weeks or months, their credibility is shot along with their careers. That is why, on the 23rd October statement, I did not believe they were lying, given they were going to make another statement today and the results would be out in February.
What is your current view given your previous recent statements detailed below:

"21/11 Post 233 25cent
I have moved my short target down to 100p."
"25/11 Post 238 25cent
I expect panic sales of part of the business before to long to try and reduce the massive debt mountain.
I remain a with a target FOR MY short of 100p."
25/11 "Post 241 25cent
I would not be surprised at all to see INF replicate the 94% share price fall seen by TNI and Johnson press, i don't see any reason why this will stop falling,"
26/11 "Post 249 25cent
I predict that the short squeeze will end and this will continue down, thats my opinion."

18/12 "Post 280 25cent
The company are now surprise surprise bringing to the attention of shareholders what i have been saying for a 2 months about the its bank covenants"

They mentioned the tightening covenants in their update on 23rd October – 8 weeks ago
"The resilience of our business combined with our strong cash conversion gives comfortable headroom within our bank facilities. As previously indicated our covenant test levels tighten in 2009. However, the strength of our cash flows and the breadth of our asset portfolio across different verticals and geographies gives us confidence that we will manage the business in 2009 to ensure that current headroom levels, or better, are maintained."

I would be very grateful if you could adapt your incredibly informative post 241, re how brokers massage their downgrades etc, to the Panmure forecasts that you helpfully pointed out in the same post. Panmure, as you pointed out in that post, reiterated their hold and reduced from 250p to 175p. 3 weeks later they have revised their stance to 225p. Do THEY know what they are talking about ?

[25cent] 18/12/2008 11:27

REF update today/

I would say that the statement was guarded but more positive than i expected.
However the real test is how the business performs next year whilst actually in the recession.
The company are now surprise surprise bringing to the attention of shareholders what i have been saying for a 2 months about the its bank covenants
"The Board remains focused on the level of headroom against its bank covenants."
and..
" as previously discussed, tighten next year. We remain
comfortable with the current level of headroom but continue to monitor both this and trading carefully and have a number of options
available should circumstances change."

That means fire sale of assets if needed imho.

By the looks of the lackluster response to the share price the market are not yet convinced that it will be able to manage its debt in accordance with the tightening of its covenants, we shall see.

[25cent] 14/12/2008 23:17

Call the doctor someone lol

Multiple personality disorder

Definition

Multiple personality disorder, or MPD, is a mental disturbance classified as one of the dissociative disorders in the fourth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV). It has been renamed dissociative identity disorder (DID). MPD or DID is defined as a condition in which "two or more distinct identities or personality states" alternate in controlling the patient's consciousness and behavior. Note: "Split personality" is not an accurate term for DID and should not be used as a synonym for schizophrenia.

[peladon] 12/12/2008 22:05

I was answering your point that I was a newcomer.

But it's a waste of time arguing with the deluded. Conversation ended.

[the_doctor] 12/12/2008 18:50

I wouldnt even have known what a 'peladon' is.