Informa Share Discussion Threads

[kenmill] 28/7/2009 16:55

I think you are being a bit over negative there. They still produced £67 million of cash in 6 months and, even if they have a bad second half and first half of next year, a price of 120p seems far too low.

[loryd] 28/7/2009 12:33

It's all a bit mealy-mouthed though. They sing their own praises even though they had to come crawling for cash from shareholders. They say that half of the reduction in events revenue is because they (rather cleverly they imply) chose not to run certain events (though presumably no-one wanted them). They try not to draw too much attention to the £20m operating profit benefit from currency. Euromoney's comments about forward subscriptions starting to be cancelled were particularly interesting and this has to be a threat for Informa. Personally I think more of their business is vulnerable than they let on - vulnerable in the short-term and in the longer-term as the world adjusts its expenditure. And the debt is still high.

Probably worth half what it is now, though I am usually completely wrong on price!

[pckrowe] 28/7/2009 12:14

With the shares taking a dive, I can't really see how the market could have expected the results to be any better than they are. From what I can see, the board have made some sound decisions in preparation for the upturn, whenever it happens.

[kenmill] 28/7/2009 09:09

Results much as expected - publishing doing well, large events not too bad, everything else rubbish. Looks like mid 2010 before we see any improvement.

[kenmill] 14/7/2009 17:34

Don't like to nit pick but the revised-down offer (having been indicated at around 505p) came in at 450p and the rights was at 150p. The market changed enormously between the two events. At the time of the bid, the news was just oozing out about the banks and it was some time after the bid was rejected that the full force of the banks' stunning deals came out. Raising any money at the time was difficult and they were forced to do the big discount.
I am in these shares from the T & F side so don't have years of experience of the Informa board. T & F was run extremely well and was bought at a good price, which I agree with you cannot be said of Datamonitor.
As I have said before, it will be a year before it becomes clear whether they will recover with the market and I am prepared to wait.
I would be extremely surprised if we saw your figure of 140p but who knows what lies around the corner in these markets.

[25cent] 14/7/2009 16:13

Ken how can any respectable board of a company turn down 475p a share saying that it undervalues the company only to then issue shares at 250p months later?

The credibility level is zero the corporate governance in overpaying for companies that they took over is zero.
The huge debt that they have saddled the company with leave the company exposed.

Is it any surprise that I don't believe a word that they say, also looking at the share price it seems many also don't believe the board and have jumped ship.

Where is any good news going to come from?

On a good news /bad news ratio I would put the bad news at about 90% out of 100% as against a 10% chance of any good news.

I
INF really is, or I should say the shareholders are now paying for the years of mismanagement at INF, but that's ok they just blame it all on the global recession.
Nice work if you can get it.

[kenmill] 14/7/2009 14:47

Yes I did misunderstand your time frame. However, I don't think they were alluding to quite such a veiled profit warning as you suggest.

"The Group's publishing businesses, which encompass two of the Group's divisions - Academic Information and Professional and Commercial Information - accounting for over 60% of the Group's adjusted operating profits, continue to grow, demonstrating the resilience of our niche products and intellectual property across a number of different verticals. At the same time ongoing action to improve efficiencies will result in an increased adjusted operating profit margin."

So 60% of their profits are growing and the margins are improving. Now the bit you are referring to.

"Across our Events and Training Division we have pro-actively continued to reduce volume to protect profitability in the face of weak demand. As a consequence, in the first six months of the year organic revenues will be considerably lower than in the same period last year. Despite this, the high variable cost base will mean that the impact on adjusted operating profit margin will be limited."

So they are saying a lot of their costs are variable and therefore the impact will be limited. We don't know how much turnover will be lost and therefore it is difficult to assess whether the drop in profitability is greater than the continued rise in the publishing side.

"The economic background remains challenging in many of our geographic markets. However, the pro-active approach taken to cost cutting across the whole business means that the Group anticipates that full year adjusted operating profit margins can be maintained at 2008 levels. Restructuring costs incurred to date in 2009 related to cost saving initiatives are expected to be approximately £10 million with annualised savings estimated at approximately £20 million."

This last bit obviously shows a £10 million hit in restructuring this year but delivers twice as much per annum in savings. Not all bad then.

"Our reported results will benefit from the strength of the US$ and the Euro relative to 2008 levels, although the recent strengthening of sterling, if maintained, will inevitably reduce the positive impact in the balance of the year."

So it is going to reduce the positive impact not produce a big loss.

"We remain confident about the Group's future prospects and believe that the market positions of our leading brands and events leave us well positioned to grow significantly when world economies start to improve. The Board confirms that the Group continues to trade in line with its expectations for the full year."

I know you don't believe a word they say but they have not lied about their prospects and only upset some shareholders by refusing the bid.

[25cent] 13/7/2009 23:29

Hi Ken,
No you misunderstand me a tad, I think that they will issue a profits warning and blame currency movements no mater what the £ does in the next few months.
They have already planted the seed in the last statement that covers them for this.

I would not call a few months a long time Ken?
Lets be realistic Ken in this same time span they had a placing that I said they would and they cut the dividend just like I said they would?
All this despite heavy criticism on this very thread at the time of me saying all this.

Take a look at the last statement, if you can find any other RNS that more blatantly lays on the warning of not meeting the expected targets without actually saying so then please show me.

I think its abundantly clear by the share price what the smart money is betting on.
I still say a test of £2 is 90% certain imho and then 140p when the warning hits.

What was the alternative you ask?
well that was 475p per share and a years free interest, but sadly apparently this was not in the shareholders interest to take this all-cash offer according to the INF board?????

[kenmill] 13/7/2009 18:57

Given their trading statement was 29th June - you may have to wait a little while for a profit warning if just to satisfy corporate liability. Sterling has weakened a bit over the last few days so, if that is your reason for the need for the profit warning, that is also subsiding in the short term. You may need patience as you have been expecting this for a long time.

[25cent] 13/7/2009 11:09

Its now surely just a waiting game for the actual profits warning to be issued?
I still reckon they (the clueless board)will blame it on currency movements.

[mw8156] 11/7/2009 13:43

agree to an extent; wasnt it 450p that was turned down and a muted bid at around 600 before that? the trouble is that the recent rights issue raised only a relatively small amount and the company remains highly geared; in retrospect it paid too much for Laidlaw's exhibition services. No-one could last year have foreseen the collapse of the credit markets. It's a shame for us former T and F holders who have lost out.

[25cent] 10/7/2009 11:55

Hi Doc I must say that's not exactly the most compelling counterargument to one of my posts I have ever had!

[the_doctor] 10/7/2009 10:36

Blah, blah, blah

If the insts werent happy with it, they
1) would have told the board at the time
2) would have kicked the board out

They havent

[25cent] 10/7/2009 10:33

Well almost 12 months on and a rights issue and a dividend cut later.....
Tell me is there anyone left on this thread that still thinks that the board acted in shareholders interested when turning down a 475p cash offer last year?

What I personally find quite astonishing is how this greedy self preserving pole cat filled board have the treacherous cunning to turn down 475p per share saying it undervalues the company then issue new shares just months later at 250p to save their own skins.
Talk about wanting it all ways???

Obviously being taken over would have seen the gravy train end for many of these parasites so acting in shareholders interest comes a country mile behind looking after themselves.

[the_doctor] 09/7/2009 10:04

Probably looks better to say that while it is actually going down, not up Loverat!

[loverat] 09/7/2009 10:02

Down she goes!

[25cent] 03/7/2009 11:58

I would say a test of 200p is possible after this failed rally?

[fast investor] 03/7/2009 08:34

2 massive O buys this morning of over 720,000.

[fast investor] 02/7/2009 20:42

Another positive Broker note out....

FinnCap has a positive note on Informa, advises taking profits at Hargreaves Lansdown, has a hold on Vodafone (for yield) and a buy for Premier Foods

[loryd] 02/7/2009 10:09

Yes, markets change and the likes of Panmure are paid to factor it in

[25cent] 01/7/2009 16:39

Yep and lets see how inf copes on the market red days.

[fast investor] 01/7/2009 16:08

Well yep but markets do change.

I think that they will probably be playing a conservative game here under present general market conditions.

Personaly I will be gratefull to get a share price of around 290p as per the chart trend channel and reckon theres enogh momentum behind it to do that and perhaphs a lot more.

[loryd] 01/7/2009 15:56

This is the same Panmure who had a 570p target a couple of years back

[fast investor] 01/7/2009 15:15

INF Informa .......... going like the clappers.

Got some cracking Broker backing aswell over last two days......

Broker recommendation full details
Date: 29 June, 2009
Broker: Altium Securities
Company: Informa


Recommendation:
Retain Buy price target 389p

InterMarket Stock's recommendation rating:
Buy


AND

Broker recommendation full details
Date: 30 June, 2009
Broker: Panmure Gordon
Company: Informa


Recommendation:
Retain Buy price target 300p

InterMarket Stock's recommendation rating:
Buy


AND


Broker recommendation full details
Date: 30 June, 2009
Broker: Citigroup
Company: Informa


Recommendation:
Retain Buy price target 296p

InterMarket Stock's recommendation rating:
Buy

[fast investor] 01/7/2009 14:47

Gone long in Informa inf

Lovely uptrend channel in place and stock just off the baseline, could be as much as 290p on offer here........