Indus Gas Share Discussion Threads

[rs2ooo] 29/8/2009 00:04

Benno posted this on the Index thread.

It's a really good article and for me reading it was as if I'd written it myself i.e so many truths in there.

If you glance at the article and dismiss it (as I would have done a couple of years ago), I think you are either a pro or are still going through the unconscious incompetence stage of your learning curve:

[snap23] 28/8/2009 01:13

Yes I've seen that before mate thanks.Hope it works out for you you seem a lot more educated than me so you should be OK,dont forget margin,margin,margin,dont chase your losses.Trade and if you gain be happy if u lose learn but dont chase it,unless yer me lol.Enjoyed 2nite changing ideas.

[snap23] 28/8/2009 01:06

Saw that the other day FTSE was down bout 40 points no kidding 3 hours later was positive,and believe or not I went against the trend that day but my own system said buy.HEAD=PLANK do it all the time,looks as though its goin lower short but keeps goin higher,derrr u live and learn.

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 01:00

basically yes ( but not always )..when the market closes . futures still trade and take the price up or down with it .. when the cash opens again at 8.00 am there will be a gap in price . i am no expert but it is one of the lines i have drawn on my chart when i wake up ...by the way if the ftse ends up at 9500 were all shortin it lol .. ive added some infor in the header about gaps they are very important


Fast Facts

In general, as the size of the opening gap increases, the probability of the gap closing in the same trading day diminishes to a certain threshold.

During the trading day, after a certain period of time the longer a gap remains open the less likelihood it has of filling before the close.

Most stock index futures and stocks have a gap "sweet spot" or range in which the probability for closing the gap is relatively consistent throughout the range.

The key to successfully trading gaps is to identify these sweet spots by analyzing the data and trading it accordingly.

Unfilled gaps can act as targets for future price action.

The longer a gap remains unfilled, the less significance they have for attracting future prices.

In many cases once the gap is filled, price reverses and trends in the opposite direction.

Opening gaps in stock index futures that gap open in the upper/lower range of the after hours globex session have a high probability of turning into professional gaps which will continue to run instead of closing.

Gaps that occur on low volume have a better chance of filling then ones on high volume.

Huge opening gaps in individual stocks will generally need to consolidate before they start to fill and may continue lower till they bottom and reverse

[snap23] 28/8/2009 00:54

to tell the truth dont know much about gap fills read about them but still confused must be thick sorry.Is it if the ftse ends at 9500 but the open is 9465 that it will go to 9500 again??

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:49

i will put some work in on here soon and hopefully get some of the pros on here . alfg , toml , rs etc why not share our trading thoughts . can only be a good thing if we can keep the nutters away ....

[rs2ooo] 28/8/2009 00:46

Thanks bluenose. You have a great thread here, which I directed a newbie to earlier, though I don't think he bothered.

The posters "cojones" and "GSands" produce some interesting charts too, maybe worth inviting them here.

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:45

snap i am going to start to get some stats about futures end of day gaps fills as usually the 4.30 will get filled .. it was + 50 .. but this market is been pumped up imho by the quantative easing is whats driving this anyones quess when it will stop

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:42

cheers rs . i am chuffed your trading is now working and you nave gained an edge great stuff . keep up the posting as you say it obviously makes you look at each trade in more detail

[snap23] 28/8/2009 00:40

Was gonna short FTSE at 4902 but bottled it goin lower now,will watch a while.

[rs2ooo] 28/8/2009 00:37

I was back there editing my post not realising everyone was still up posting!

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bleunose - 28 Aug'09 - 00:24 - 96 of 97

please tell us whats changed your trading around . ive noticed that you seem to be getting a lot of winners lately ...

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Not sure if your question was posed at me.

If it was, my answer is:

1) Discipline
2) Staying calm and rational, i.e having a trade under water and being able to look at the chart objectively as if I wasn't in a trade.
3) Posting all my trades live. I can be self concsious, so by "having" to post my trades live I tend to stay away from the more risky trades that may make me look foolish/amatuerish.
4) Some might find this odd, but I have watched 1000's of hours of 1 minute candles, particularly on DOW. 1 minute candles give me an idea of strength and volume. For example, myself and many others were preparing to short the DOW at 9568 tonight on the touch of the top channel line - the last hourly candle on the DOW chart I posted a few posts back. I could tell by the 1 minute candles that the channel was going to get broken to the upside - before they even got to it.
Also look at the 1 minute candles on DOW when you are near a top and you will see they are all very spikey (long upwards tails), whereas a 5 or 15 minute candle may not show this until it's too late.

Hope this helps.

[snap23] 28/8/2009 00:37

Iv'e learnt that if it turns against me I get out,but saying that had a cable long weds I think and it turned bigtime,in the end had 4 which went to 2 lost 277 quid but ended up 305 up I kicked myself twice lol,so yes I do it too,we all do.

[snap23] 28/8/2009 00:27

He's good with the charts and fib counts.

[snap23] 28/8/2009 00:26

Getting there 200 points a day lol he ought to be a millionaire,lol.

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:24

please tell us whats changed your trading around . ive noticed that you seem to be getting a lot of winners lately ...

[snap23] 28/8/2009 00:23

Its all about leveredge? if you have enough pot and a lot of time it will always goin your favor,thats another point 5 points more on my trade today and I'd have got it.happened to me twice now but I dont like putting more and more on if its gonna go its gonna go.

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:22

hi rs . i was a member with hi there so channels are on my shopping list mate they do work . but you need rsi macd cross to back the trade up imho .. well done lately mate u seem to be getting there

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:20

snap what nobody ever tells u or can show you is emotions ...

greed , anger , boredom , thrillseeking ,gambling ...i think i will do some study on these as its what chips away at your pot and messes with your trading . Risk Reward and Trade sizing is critical

[rs2ooo] 28/8/2009 00:19

Another tool that is excellent if you get right....channels.

Here's one from today on the DOW.

The top resistance line I had already drawn after it had been touched by 2 candles. By copying that and pasting it to the 26th August 2pm candle (the big red one in the middle touching the bottom channel line), we were able to accurately predict a target to close short positions as well as a target long entry at 9456 which also happened to combine with a support line:






Here's another one on Cable from a couple of months back where by pasting the bottom channel line to the spike at the top of the chart we were able to predict a possible short entry which coincided with the 50% fib retrace - before the 2nd touch of the upper channel had even occurred.

Although the chart doesn't show you what happened next, I can tell you that I shorted at the very top of the 2nd touch of the upper channel and collected nearly 400 points in the following 3 days without the trade going a single pip against my entry point. From memory, Cable fell to around 1.5800 ish from that entry:

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:16

dont forget you are playing against the best minds in the world so we got to get an edge quick or they will have your money

[snap23] 28/8/2009 00:14

Thats where I usually make it bleunose,but as I say I cant leave it alone I can make 10 points 9/10 everyday but I always keep going and that is what takes my pot eventually.Gambler at heart I think.

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:11

i did some analysis of my trading recently . my first 1-3 trades early in the day are always my best . why

i have studied previous action and i have a fresh mind

i will go into some detail on this over the weekend when i get some more time

[bleunose] 28/8/2009 00:08

snap it is a big learning curve mate . leaving trades while u aint there usually ends in the same outcome loss . i think you trading later on in the day also ends in loosers . why

its chop chop time from 5pm until 8 pm usually . 6.30 gets some moves but it is where they can chop u up ... trading the happy hour 8 - 8.30- 9.00 pm is where the action usually is later on

[snap23] 27/8/2009 23:53

Been on afters so did a bit this morn,trouble with me I have a system which seems to work most of the time but I have to keep on going,left a short open when I went to work on a limit and Iv'e told myself time and time again dont do it,so made 70 points this morning but lost 40 with that last one,Alan u stupid git write it out a 100 times u idiot.Good trading all.