Ince Share Discussion Threads

[southernsong] 20/12/2022 16:02

The price continues to be carefully controlled within a tight channel whilst someone offloads their stock imho. This has been happening for a few weeks now. They are apparently keen to keep it at around the level of the last placing.

It will be interesting to see if the share price comes under any pressure as we near the end of the month. 'Late December' was the new targeted date for FY results, otherwise INCE will face suspension.

My holding has reduced as a prudent measure / precaution against having a large sum locked up in suspension....during a period (potentially Jan - March) where I think the market will provide a number of excellent opportunities.

I will still profit as and when INCE sort their paperwork.

AIMO ADYOR etc.

[southernsong] 18/12/2022 13:42

Sounds very much like you've bailed then QuePassa as you are now aiming to sow seeds of doubt.

Obviously until the Results and Annual Report are published there will be uncertainty as to when it'll happen, and whether it will be before the company is forced into suspension.

They will then have till the end of March to sort things with the auditors. Personally I do not relish the thought of being suspended for up to three months and have invested accordingly.

It looks as though the share price has been carefully managed recently to keep it around the 6p placing price. It will be interesting to see if it dips much as we head towards the 31st. The very wide spread seen recently is sometimes indicative of mm uncertainty.

Did China open back up soon enough? LBC were reporting that Omicron is now ripping through the major cities.....but it's hard to know what to believe coming out of that country these days and these reports and comments might be an overstatement from Chinese officials in order to justify Xi's previous policy and allow him to retain face.

[quepassa] 18/12/2022 09:44

Tick-tock, tick-tock.


"Should the FY22 results and the H1 2023 results not be published by 31 December 2022, trading in the Ordinary Shares on AIM will be suspended until such results are published."


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 16/12/2022 09:38

The stake-building, Director Buying and accumulation of significant positions by certain parties in INCE is not to be ignored or underestimated.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[southernsong] 13/12/2022 13:51

The price seems sensitive to any buying at these levels.

Looks ready to go if they can continue to release the +ive news.

[quepassa] 07/12/2022 13:35

Hey Minja,

Before criticising other people's use of English, you need to brush up on your own.

You have made the classic howler of writing "would of thought".

That is incorrect and very poor written English.

The correct form is "would have thought".

[southernsong] 07/12/2022 09:03

Very good news - not just for the domestic population but for easing up restrictions around business.

A near three year lockdown for some people and a zero covid policy that was effectively inhumane.....and wholly unrealistic anyway.

[southernsong] 07/12/2022 08:51

Top news coming out of China this morning.

Significant from INCE's perspective.

If I knew how to post a thumbs up emoji I would.

[minja19] 07/12/2022 07:22

re the RNS.
You would of thought that an "international legal and professional services company", could afford to employ someone with a firm grasp of the English language.

EDIT .... and red thumbed by 5 window lickers, that think incorrect prepositions, capitals, punctuation, paragraphs and syntax don't matter.

[southernsong] 03/12/2022 18:16

Adjusted, looks as though the market cap at Ince was swinging around the £60 - £70M mark back during those peaky highs in 2021 (?)

Currently capped at around £22M, adjusted with the latest voting rights number.

So, £22M of which what, c. £11 - 12M is in cash, post fundraising when added to the last cash figure as published in mid November (which was seen to be rising). Yes, some of that will go out straight away but don't forget there is a c.£11.8M debtor book in the uk alone, that the company is apparently now committed to claiming.

Plus there is an argument that the company is leaner and healthier now (albeit with a more challenging mkt place) than it was back in 2021 and before the ex CEO took the company down the Arden route.

£10M+ in cost cutting to kick in from around march too.

Rationalisation, streamlining, removing deferred considerations and generally sorting the balance sheet out under D.B......time will tell if he pulls it off and the market suddenly looks at INCE and starts buying it again.

There are of course headwinds for this company, but IF it can prove it is sustainable under the new CEO the case for a recovery play here seems pretty strong to me and it could recover in spectacular fashion.

Lots of ifs and buts before then....so ADYOR etc and NAI. Please also check my calculations.

[southernsong] 03/12/2022 17:34

Catching up here:

From Thursday and Friday...

Spreadex eases down to 4%.....Edale likewise to 3.7%

Alan Sellers ups holding to 8.38%
Samantha Moss enters the fray with a 20M share purchase (5.45%)

[southernsong] 30/11/2022 12:37

Well there's the delayed 800K which knocked the price. Probably a few of those from the 5p placing locking in a bit of profit. Modest buying arriving on any pull back.

Tempted to have a few more.

I think sentiment will change considerably after the FY results and annual report have finally been published. The company will then be entirely focussed on delivering a solid H2 and all of the savings and restructuring will kick in from March onwards. A trading update ahead of then however should point the way, if indeed it isn't made clear at the time of the Annual Report.

ADYOR etc

[southernsong] 25/11/2022 00:01

mjb252 - there is a lot of opinion in my post above and I am as fallible as the next man, so please do your own research and do not take it as advice. I am just posting how I personally see the situation and as I said at the close, there could be a happy ending or not. Situation is in a state of flux and will be for a while. But if the new CEO has the energy and is sincere about returning value for all holders (which remains to be seen), there could be a good recovery here next year.

We'll see.

[mjb252] 24/11/2022 23:56

Wow. I wish every post on ADVFN was as accessible to the point and informative as this one. I thank you.

[southernsong] 24/11/2022 23:31

Hamida - A cursory glance at Ince, without fully understanding the events of 2022 could easily lead someone to your conclusion.....and that is probably where the market is still at.

But I have to agree with eringael.

The Arden fiasco was indeed a right old fiasco....so, so protracted and so, so damaging for the share price...but to the best of my knowledge it was the brainchild of a CEO who has since been 'eased' from office.....eased, ironically, by the incoming boss of Arden who is now the new CEO at Ince.

Since his arrival he has grabbed this company by the scruff, invested near £1M of his own money and started a root and branch overhaul of the business. His actions, so far, have been pretty emphatic. The balance sheet was in a sorry state and his actions to date have, in my opinion, revealed just how badly this company had been managed.

He has successfully got two placings away so that cash is now at a healthy level; shown that debt is falling and cash levels (aside from placing funds) are rising; identified and implemented cost savings to the tune of some £10M (in the UK alone); successfully renegotiated with creditors; identified around £11M of debtors in the UK and overhauled cash collection and bought in key staff to pursue those debtors; removed around £7M of deferred consideration from the balance sheet; got shot of any division which is looking weak or not aligned with Inces core legal services going forward and ultimately sought to refocus the business for sustainable organic growth.

The fact that he could identify £10M of cost savings in the UK division alone, and so quickly, tells you a lot about how this company had been previously managed......not to say what I perceive as poor cash collection protocol.

It's a shame for those who were buying INCE in the 40 - 70ps (and I'd be interested to calculate what the mkt cap was back then), but what matters more is the health of the company and its viability vs it's market valuation NOW, less the headline share price of 10 months ago.

You state that the Arden deal could and should have been aborted. Yes, it could have been aborted. But what would that have left you with? It almost certainly would have left you with the old management team and a business with all the issues the new CEO has revealed. And it almost certainly would NOT have led to the overhaul we are now witnessing. I hope the apparent change in 'culture' at Ince is genuine and it will continue as it has started.

So you have to ask yourself what it is you want.

Do you really think the Arden deal should have been aborted? For existing holders it was, on the face of it, a bad deal - but it might just still have a silver lining, particularly for new investors.

Ince is not out of the woods and it still faces challenges, but despite the collapse in share price seen in 2022, I believe it's already looking like a better potential investment than it was. The delay in publication of FY results and Annual report is an ongoing frustration but again this is a legacy of 1) the previous management and the issues they faced and 2) the issues facing the company in the Far East, which to a degree remain out of Ince's control.

I bought in since the 5p placing so it's easier for me to accept and see the situation for what it is, without the baggage of having shares bought under the ex CEO and at much higher prices.

It will be very interesting to see what ultimately transpires here. Could work out extremely well in 2023 or not. We shall see. No guarantees. But it is an interesting situation that is currently in play.

Next RNS will likely be a + holdings. Will be interesting to see who took the shares which appear to have been oversubscribed.

AIMO and NAI so ADYOR.

[eringael] 24/11/2022 13:18

Not running the show now that's the pertinent point

[minja19] 24/11/2022 08:23

conclusion .... they didn't want retail investors.

[quepassa] 24/11/2022 08:11

Placing significantly oversubscribed. £4.7million raised versus target of up to £4.25million.

The institutional level fared well and raised some £4.7million (78,758,648 shares placed).

On the contrary, The Rex retail offer was a flop raising a paltry £10,000 (168,000 shares Placed) versus a target of up to £250,000 or 4.16 million shares being available.

However, the mechanics of the Retail Offer were such that it was announced at 16.58hrs yesterday and closed just three hours later - giving retail investors next to no time to consider subscribing in an after-hours accelerated book-build exercise.

In my opinion, had the mechanics of the Retail Offer been a little more investor-friendly, my guess is that it would have received much greater interest.

Nul points for the structure/timetable of the Retail Offer.


Apart from that, a very healthy over-subscription displaying strong institutional appetite for the stock.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[southernsong] 24/11/2022 08:02

Placing all done and dusted and raised more than anticipated.

Company will now have >£8.5 M in the bank (a significant proportion of our current market cap) and as we can see from yesterday's trading update, an improving outlook on multiple fronts.

All in all on a much better footing and Looking good for a decent recovery here into 2023.

AIMO etc

[southernsong] 23/11/2022 19:47

The company is now well in the process of being turned around but it's indeed harsh if you're in from much higher prices Pinemartin9.

I've been buying since the 5p placing news.

There's a lot of good stuff in this evenings trading update.

It will be interesting to see who buys in and joins the shareholder list. I would think Brown et al have had strong interest and I don't anticipate the book build taking long. We shall see.

[pinemartin9] 23/11/2022 19:10

No choice but to hold here. A lesson learnt the hard way. Shocking performance. Wish I'd never heard of them. Note to self don't read the Naked Trader website!

[southernsong] 23/11/2022 18:19

eringael - re the selling down....hmm...maybe....but the recent pull back has been on extremely light volume....and it moved up nicely today on light buying. And yes, as you say, significant opportunities stated for further improvements to revenue and cost reductions.

Ince is still speculative and not yet an outright screaming buy, but if they continue as they have done under the new CEO (huge amount of work in just a few short months) then at some point Ince could suddenly look very cheap and I'd expect to see it tipped.

A strong hold for me.