Imperial Energy Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 22/12/2008 09:14

Apparently, at least 2 brokers require instructions as to acceptance by 29/12 (HL and Jarvis) so still time for clients of these to top up and vote. Any others?

[katsy] 22/12/2008 08:54

No one knows the outcome of the voting hence little trading.

[imperial3] 22/12/2008 08:47

The share price is still weak,relatively speaking,and also considering,the time frame.Would have thought it to be higher this morning.

[miamisteve] 22/12/2008 08:40

There's such a moronic flaw in the fear that a large holder might decide to dump all their shares in the market and turn net short to collapse the bid, because the counter party who bought the shares would be voting for the takeover.

[madjock2] 22/12/2008 08:20

hope so ,though am still wondering about those "missing" shares mentioned in NAPRACC post at point 4. #18689

[miamisteve] 22/12/2008 08:14

An encouraging lack off volume so far. Everyone locked in for the payday.

[stuart14] 22/12/2008 06:26

technicalindicators.com is my favourite.

Also try the free trial at sevendaysahead.com

Apart from that i prefer the free blogs. There are some really clever people out there who post their opinions for free.

[superyids] 21/12/2008 18:54

Hi Stuart
You mentioned sites you subscribe to and found them useful - can you give me the names please!?

[squintyflinty] 21/12/2008 18:44

There will be a substancial amount of shares tendered on the 23rd Dec,and I'm expecting an announcement that the 90% has been reached on 24 th Dec.

[scoble2] 21/12/2008 18:06

yes i agree the share price will motor to £11 tomorrow.

[shiny1000] 21/12/2008 17:48

TDW have now sent the reminders to all. This should now motor starting from Tomorrow as the 90% looks likely to be achieved. Imperial have been working very hard to achieve this.

[stuart14] 20/12/2008 16:47

Yuka,

I got the mail from IG last night after hours.

Jelenko, i've held most of my IEC shares via Spreadbet for 4 years now. I see it as an investment. A tax free investment.

[yuka] 20/12/2008 16:20

Jelenko - it will still correlate. There will be only one vote per share made by the company that owns the share which is most likely the company that buys the shares when issuing the CFD. It asks the owner of the CFD (the spreadbet company) how to vote and the spreadbet company asks the person holding the bet.

The spreadbet company and the CFD want to be risk neutral on the outcome. The only way to do this is for the ultimate spreadbet holder to take the risk.

While there isn't multiple voting it does mean harder administratively to chase down votes with respect to shares owned by companies issuing CFDs such MF Global as many parties involved some two steps removed.

BTW the distinction between gambling and investment in this case is just semantics. Anyone holding shares or spreadbets is taking a calculated risk on the outcome. If holding shares hoping for 90% you think you are not gambling on an outcome (albeit a likely positive outcome) you are deluding yourself.

[sailor9] 20/12/2008 16:17

...The volume of prospected oil reserves in Russia is classified information. Yet, nearly every day brings some good news about new "wet" exploration wells that promise a considerable hydrocarbon production rate. Imperial Energy, for instance, made a positive announcement regarding their reservoir discovery in Kiev-Egan License Block on the eastern bank of the Ob River. In the course of drilling of a vertical well #361, reservoir sandstone was found at 2,278.3 meter depth. The well is now being tested and yields 1,575 barrels per day without any stimulation or pumping...

[jelenko] 20/12/2008 14:50

Still don't agree in pricipal. If you bet on a racehorse, it doesn't mean you own it. The number of votes counted has to corrolate to the number of shares in issue, no more no less. If you srart counting cfd's and spreadbets you could exceed the number substantially IMHO.

Spreadbetting is gambling on an outcome, not an investment in the company.

[yuka] 20/12/2008 12:27

Stuart - haven't heard anything from IG yet which is odd. Out of interest are you holding as quarterly bets or as rolling daily cash?

[yuka] 20/12/2008 12:26

Apart from possibly a small book IG will have hedged most of customer spreads by buying CFDs from somebody like MF Global for example. MF Global will then have bought the shares to hedge the CFD. The decision goes all the the way back down the chain to the person with ultimate financial interest.

[stuart14] 20/12/2008 10:16

Spreads portray the underlying security as closely as possible these days. I got to take part in the Rights Issue via spreads too.

They haven't got it entirely right though, in that upon accepance of the offer my holding has been frozen.

[jelenko] 20/12/2008 09:41

Stuart, Can't see why spreads have voting rights.

[stuart14] 20/12/2008 09:26

IG Index Corporate Actions e-mailed me last night to get acceptance of the vote on my positions held via Spread. They require an answer by close of play on the 23rd so plenty of time.

I've already replied.

[togglebrush] 20/12/2008 08:40

Three full days trading left before 30th December deadline
Market Volumes since Tuesday 9th December (Day of the Offer) have been:-
Wed 3,364,844
Thu 1,663,419
Fri 1,047,171
Mon 1,429,242
Tue 1,032,549
Wed __877,507
Thu 1,224,517
Fri 1,642,448

Half day Trading:- Christmas Eve & 30th December (pre 1.00pm)
Full day Trading:- Monday 22nd, Tuesday 23rd, & Monday 29th

The range of the Daily trading volumes since the rights issue on 6th May 2008
Max____7,577,016 ... 15th July
Q3_____1,896,634
Median_1,123,312
Q1_______750,397
Min______284,661 ... 12th June

A quarter of the sample of each day's trading lie between the numbers. The trading since the offer has been close to the median. This suggests to me that the holders have made up their minds. IMHO to accept the offer.

[miamisteve] 20/12/2008 08:16

Re - Midas in the Mail.

He seems to be banking on an 80% fall in the share price as he quotes sibir's demise. (leave aside the fact that sibir have decided to take on $700m of liabilities)

So £2 target.

Roughly speaking he is considering it a good bet at the current price if the share price falls to £2 on failure to reach 90% acceptance. A £7.60 win. If it goes ahead he loses £2.60. Punching in the numbers it's uncovered that for the current price to favour a short he needs a 24%+ probability of a no 90%.

If the share price were infact to drop to £5 than the current shorting risk reward would only pay off if the odds of not reaching 90% were 40%+.

Fact is the share price will not go to £2 and the probability is not 24%.

Even if the share price was to go to zero if the tally didn't reach 90%. The current share price of £9.90 with a return of 27% is discounting a 20% chance of not reaching 90%.

Risk reward says this is a screaming buy.

[miamisteve] 20/12/2008 07:28

squintyflinty - 24hrs imo would be too long to sit on that sort of information particularly if it encompasses a full days trading. I suspect that if the 90% fresh hold is crossed by the close of business on the 23rd, the announcement will be made pre-market on the 24th.

[jonck] 19/12/2008 23:01

Tinvan - You are correct regarding Selftrade. It is one of the few brokers defaulting to acceptance. It also means you are free to trade the shares or indeed buy more closer to the deadline and not worry about notifying them.