FY results out next Wed 29th , and you can hear from the CEO and CFO on the same day: Webinar open to all investors at 1.15pm, simply register here to attend: |
I think it just indicates that the whole fund management sector is cheap at the moment. |
At 422p mkt cap of IPX is £583 million whereas mkt cap of Liontrust at 586p is only £381 million. So we care most unlikely to see a bid for IPX from LIO. |
Does Liontrust's recent acquisition of a 10% stake indicate that a combination of the two companies might be under consideration ? |
But sharp increase in outflows not specific to IPX. From Q4 AUM update 091023.
On 30 September 2023, the Company's AUM totalled £37.4 billion, representing a decrease of 5.8% over the three-month period since 1 July 2023 and an increase of 4.8% over the financial year since 30 September 2022.
At this point in the cycle, this seems an ideal time to enter IPX which is what I have done this morning. Not expecting the next monthly AUM to be great as it will reflect position at 300923, but if you believe there is a lot of money sitting on the sidlines ready to invest, good to be nimble at this point and get ahead of the crowd. |
I think it depends on whether the recent sharp increase in outflows is a blip or a fundamental shift in the attraction of ESG investing. |
 I am now fully reinvested here.
It's been interesting getting reacquainted with the company after selling out back in 2020. There are some bear points
BEAR POINTS
1. Margins are under pressure in the wealth management sector so that is a bear point, but, IPX defends itself against margin erosion because they focus on B2B distribution and direct sales.
2. While passive investing with ETF’s have forced fees down , as a highly experienced , well-resourced and expert investment house, IPX argues that they add value and are worth the fees they charge because they offer superior performance. Their track record supports this stance.
3. Inflation and increased investment in people and a new office have eroded operating margins at IPX over the last 12 months as they gear up the business for expansion.
4. Markets may continue to slide, valuations may fall further and as such income may come under further pressure.
5. What will happen when company founder and CEO,Ian Simm (age57) leaves? I don’t see that as an immediate problem because he seems as enthusiastic as ever and is by character a driven man , a highly motivated, self-declared nerd, who is on record as being happy to continue and take the company to the next stage, thereby securing his legacy and improving the value of his significant holding of stock.
6. The only negative in the past has been the high price of the shares. The share price is much more attractive now and there is stock available. Earnings may have flat lined fro the time being and they could continue to stagnate, but the risk return looks favourable again with a safe 7% divided to be received while we wait for the cycle to change.
..but more bull points .
BULL POINTS
1. Solid balance sheet ,highly profitable , highly cash generative, lots of cash, high margins, very scale-able business, modest rating, high and sustainable dividend, capable management, strong market position.
2. This is an investment in the growing transition to a more sustainable economy. We are putting our money behind the trend but at arms length. By buying into IPX as one of the global specialists in this area, we can profit from IPX’s ability to attract investors to their products. IPX’s range of product strategies almost overwhelmingly outperform their competitors over 1, 3 and 5 years.
3. IPX sees a big runway of opportunity , estimating that they can expand from 50b USD of AuM to 80-100b AuM just with their the existing strategies.
4. They continue seeding new strategies to continue expanding into other closely related thematic areas. To date, they have been adept at staying ahead of the pack in this sense.
5. IPX does something useful to investors and indeed humanity and they do it well.
6. IPX has been very mindful of developing their brand and ensuring that they are high profile thought leaders in and around sustainability. The Impax brand has no balance sheet value attributed to it but it is a powerful name that when combined with the investment performance adds considerable value to the business.
7. Impax has a very stable, experienced and settled team. It is a good place to work, indeed Ian Simm said that they have only ever had to sack one person in the entire history of the company!
8. Markets will recover and when they do, IPX is well positioned. We should see profits spike- up nicely. While we wait for this to happen, we can take a 7% dividend.
I just think it has gone from super expensive to super cheap.
So much for the idea that markets price things correctky . To have held since the peak at 1500p and see the value half in 2021 and then half again in 2022 to end up trading at 375p is terrifying. Seems like you can't just buy a quality company and hold forever either.
Anyway , things look pretty positive here I feel. If they can get the Aum up 80-100% as they think they can then all will be well.
I see an share price at an all time high again in maybe 5 years time. If that happens then we're talking an annual compound return dividends included, of around 25% a year.That will do it for me. |
This is getting hammered. Down to £4 on a 5.8% reduction to £37bn on todays RNS.
The RNS on 7 April last year IPX reported a reduction of 10% in AUM again to +/- £37bn. The share price then dropped from a tenner to just over a fiver when it started to climb again in September 2022.
Looking to add but am just going to wait abit for the share price to settle. |
A slightly disappointing Q4 update gets brutal treatment in this market. For the year as a whole they have done OK. I've still a sizeable stake purchased at about 50p although I sold about 60% or so. They still need a private markets deal / fixed interest deal to rebalance the business in my view. They should have more than £564m in private assets AUM, particularly given the better fee rates on this side. |
Impax Asset Management issued a Q4 AUM update this morning. On 30 September 2023, the Company's AUM totalled £37.4 billion, representing a decrease of 5.8% over the three-month period since 1 July 2023 and an increase of 4.8% over the financial year since 30 September 2022. There wasn’t any additional financial information, but performance was decent given the weakening market backdrop, although there were some moderate redemptions from several of the Group’s distribution partners. Share price has dopped nearly 10%, however, and is extending its longer run correction. AUM are the base from which revenues are earned, if they shrink it is negative for profits. Valuation is average with forward PE ratio around 11.3x, the balance sheet is strong. But the fragile macro environment and the risks it poses to asset markets suggest it remains too soon to buy again. One to monitor for the time being...
...from WealthOracle |
Thanks Edmonda. It reads well enough.I have just added at 400p. |
Good questions, Robsy. New note out today to read.
The relative growth rate of IPX has been impressive, as has its net flow rate. After the Q4 AUM report Equity Dev's fundamental value/share falls to 800p, still well above a 454p close.
Read full new research note, hear summary at below, free access: |
I was a holder here for many years , eventually selling out my final tranche at 600p ish some time ago,a poorly timed sale since the stock roared on and if I remember correctly, topped 15 quid or so at one point.
It has been quite a fall from grace since then.I bought a small position at what i thought was a bargain price of 550p and have been quite surprised by the weakness since then.Just on dividend grounds it looks good value. I suppose green investing has swung out of fashion somewhat and AUM growth may be turning negative but is it more than that ? I would be interested to hear what people think because it looks like a solid buy from here , but then again so does a lot of stuff the the UK market... |
And in the meantime there is a reasonable yield of 5% which looks reasonable secure save for a significant market correction. |
Just bought a small stake here based on track record and long term growth prospects plus recent Gresham House deal announced today which was based on 16 x EBITDA multiple. According to Stocko this is currently trading at 10.4 x EBITDA. Hopefully this will provide some support for the share price in current difficult market.
I sense save for a bid, recovery will be 2/3 years but i hope at that point this will be closer to previous share price seen of £10/12. |
Q3 AUM update: although Q3 was slower @ImpaxAM, there are no changes to Equity Dev's FY23 forecasts or valuation/share of 900p. Indeed its PER is back to peer-group median levels despite strong relative performance and good growth prospects.
Read / hear that new research note: |
Some fall from glory here |
In H1 12% AUM growth and £1.1bn of net inflows were impressive vs peers. Although investing internally for further growth reduces short-term profit estimates, new Fair Value seen by Equity Development at 900p/share.
Read their full new note, hear summary below: |
H1 EPS looks a bit worse than expected because of a £4.7m unrealised forex loss. They would have been better highlighting this a bit more in the results, as its the main reason for the drop in EPS. Costs have also increased as they invest for the future. Results fairly solid otherwise and very good given market conditions. Shares slammed. Neverthless, downgraded valuation from £10 to £9 is causing the £1 off today. I suspect that this year's dividend will be flat. |
CEO reports 'a solid H1 despite challenging macroeconomic conditions'
6 months to end of March saw: AUM +12% to £40.1bn, net flows of + £1.1bn, interim div 4.7p, EPS down to 17.2p after internal investment.
CEO and CFO present at a webinar TODAY at 3pm, all investors are welcome - to join simply register here: |
BLACKROCK selling down ahead of results... not good. What does everyone think the half years will look like? Flat on last H1 22 revenue with say 15% higher costs? |
Does anyone have ideas re the jump today? AuM down to £39.3bn at 31 April from £40.1bn the month prior... were folks expecting a bigger slide? |
IPX Q2 AUM update. On 31 March 2023, the Company's AUM totalled £40.1 billion, an increase of 5.7% for the quarter, which included net inflows of £326 million.In line with the trading update, the share price opened positive by 2.54%, considering the company to has a strong potential IPX is a stock to watch.Impax has reported a strong quarter of growth despite challenging market conditions. The company has experienced positive net flows due to its focus on investing in the transition to a more sustainable economy, which has been supported by recent policy moves such as the Inflation Reduction Act. Sustainable infrastructure, renewable energy, and resource efficiency are expected to benefit as policymakers prioritize energy security and net-zero commitments..... from WealthOracle |
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