Impax Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 30/12/2024 11:21

Hopefully the share price is telling us the recovery is already underway.

[advfnagain] 29/12/2024 12:45

i've added to my watchlist but i do have some concerns . Eps is in decline and is not predicted to increase until 2026 . Overall growth of around 5% compared to industry average of around 15%. For example lion trust @ 25% . Exposure to North American markets may not be conducive with trumps rhetoric. The dividend is appealing but at the expense of growth ? It does seem good value however I like to see a clearer path to growth. i would also like to see some inside buying . I will certainly be watching in 2025..

[aishah] 27/12/2024 09:42

Taken a position here.

"Last month UK equity funds recorded their first month of inflows in more than three-and-a-half years, after a period during which investors have pulled more than £25bn. According to data from Calastone, which tracks money entering and leaving funds via financial advisers, fund supermarkets and wealth managers, UK equity funds recorded net inflows of £317m in November." David Stevenson, Citywire.

[clova1] 20/12/2024 14:14

David Stevenson is quite positive:
On a side note, I think the market reaction to the SJP Impax issue has been massively overdone. The Impax share price was down 26% in a week and 54% over 12 months. Growth in both the top and bottom lines has stalled in the last few years, and the SJP decision is obviously a blow. Given the turmoil, I could easily see FY 2025 pre-tax profits bump along below £40m for Impax, versus a market cap of about £312m. That puts the business on a roughly 8 times earnings multiple. That looks a tad cheap for a smart asset manager in a popular space (although ESG-based investing has lost its shine in recent years).

[mister md] 20/12/2024 09:24

Should do well as a longer term investment from here.

[sandeep67] 19/12/2024 16:45

nudging on 10% Div in Feb so a good recovery bet if there ever is such a thing with asset managers these days

[brucie5] 19/12/2024 16:02

Finger in the air? Between here and £2 is as good a bet as any.
LIO adding. But no director as yet buying.

Passes two good value screens on Stocko, where it also usually well reviewed by Graham - somewhat to his own embarrassment!

Lots of thoroughly depressing commentary - has everyone not sold yet? -and the loss of a major client, which recently sent the share price down about 25%.
But it continues to do business and has a niche, which contrary to what some say, is unlikely to go away, so long as there is connection between the purposes of wealth and the management of the planet.

I would say that the risk of buying this kind of share at this time in the cycle is at least equivalent with the risk of buying a momentum stock on basis that someone will pay you more to take it off your hands. Nothing is certain, bar death and taxes; but even given a cut to the historic dividend I imagine we will be paid something for waiting. Rather analogous to holding LIO; or ASHM, which specialises in EM.

Eventually the markets will turn and the survivors will prosper or be taken over.
IMO, DYOR.

[brett conway] 19/12/2024 14:04

What are people's views on an entry point to IPX ATM? Would you say that this is a good buy at current levels?

[mister md] 18/12/2024 10:17

Well they have done alright with their Renewi stake at least ...

[fegger] 18/12/2024 10:10

Why i am not as pessimistic as others is that the world demand for energy is increasing. Ive seen presentations where the new sustainable energy is meeting the additional demand not replacing the old. I think this will continue and there is a place for Impax's focus. Also there is increasing sensitivity to pollution which also is favourable for them.

[mister md] 18/12/2024 10:00

Bottomed out.


Possibly.

[mister md] 17/12/2024 18:24

Lol now Liontrust increasing stake.

[brucie5] 16/12/2024 16:55

Large uncrossed trade @245.5, so effectively, sellers meeting with buyers.
And someone appears to have picked up 54k worth.
I imagine many will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for £2. But not all.

[riverman77] 16/12/2024 16:35

Yes fund managers can get into a downward spiral which I've seen first hand in the industry - they lose one big mandate, which may in turn encourage other clients to jump ship, which in turn can imapct fund performance as they need to sell assets to cover redemptions. At the same time senior fund managers and sales staff may decide to move as the prospects start to dim.

[bertiebingo] 16/12/2024 16:01

Equity Dev obviously don't understand how fund management works. Analysts always under estimate the loss of AUM, they never assume any loss of key PMs, they expect sales staff to battle on with limited chance of no bonuses. I may be too pessimistic but have seen this play out too many times. The smaller the firm the higher the risk.

[hunter154] 16/12/2024 11:21

@Mister, agreed.
If they dont want to buy now then it speaks volumes about the status quo.

[mister md] 16/12/2024 10:53

Will also be interesting to see if the directors put their hands in their pockets at these levels ...

[brucie5] 16/12/2024 08:16

Thanks Edmonda, will be interesting to see how this settles.

[edmonda] 16/12/2024 07:58

the loss of the SJP mandate is a blow to top-line, but examination of the impact shows revs and adj operating profits falling by smaller proportions.
Equity Dev reduce estimates and their fundamental value/share to 600p - but that is still more than 2x last price levels.
See/hear the new research note in full:

[mister md] 15/12/2024 12:21

Liontrust jumped from 400p lows to 500p on similar overly negative sentiment.

[hunter154] 14/12/2024 12:42

I think the general trend will be a shift away from ESG. Trump will be a big driver of this.
I can see this getting back to below £2 in the next 12 months.

[bertiebingo] 14/12/2024 09:34

Another example is Magellan (Australian) where SJP pulled a large amount (15% of AUM) in Jan 22, share price fell from A$30 to 20, eventually troughing at 6 in 2023.

[bertiebingo] 14/12/2024 09:19

I worked at an asset manager who went from growth to a decade of losses and restructuring, it was very painful. Other examples are Jupiter and Abrdn. Impax will go the same way as investors continue to redeem and the firm will need to pivot from a growth strategy to restructuring. Sales staff will leave as they won't be paid due to no net inflows. PMs will also move. It's likely to get messy.

[riverman77] 13/12/2024 18:07

I think you're right, most of the downside is probably priced in and they're financially strong so certainly in no danger of going under. I just can't see much of a recovery until it's clear that outflows have stopped.