Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[englishlongbow] 29/11/2017 18:10

Results close now. December on Friday.

[l0ngterm] 29/11/2017 18:10

Ham: ask awayThe p value in the early trials was 0.015 giving a lot of confidence in the results.http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=3259The trial design has not changed. Note 200 etc. So repeat in phase III of earlier phase and pass.Lupuzor™ has undergone substantial testing, including preclinical development, phase 1, phase 2a and phase 2b trials. Lupuzor™ performed well in the clinical Phase 2b trial, testing c. 200 patients (including all groups and placebo), where the drug demonstrated significant efficacy in the treatment of lupus. Most importantly, Lupuzor™ has demonstrated a clean safety profile throughout clinical trials to date."http://www.immupharma.co.uk/folio/lupuzor/Further research between trials has confirmed the method of action. Removing some confusion from the scientific community. Also demonstrates why an immodulator and not immusuppressant http://www.immupharma.co.uk/folio/lupuzor/

[hamhamham1] 29/11/2017 18:06

Good buy prices as similar to many others here no doubt. It's gone up 30% in 3 days, do I wait and hope for for some retracing back to 110p to 120p or hop on at late 120's?? Hmmm. I need to consult the magic 8 ball.

[w1ndjammer] 29/11/2017 17:55

I started buying at 48p upto 99p

[hamhamham1] 29/11/2017 17:54

Ignore.mu silly questions. Appologies. The two at the top seem to know their stuff, looking through that article and googling them.

[hamhamham1] 29/11/2017 17:43

Thanks L0 and WJ. Potential of 50 bagger from 50p level I presume:)

[w1ndjammer] 29/11/2017 17:43

ham > 75%

the 11b trial was a success giving this phase 111 fast track status

blockbuster RNS only a few months away no adverse effects so far

WJ.

[l0ngterm] 29/11/2017 17:38

Ham ham: see figures below."examined more than 9,200 novel compounds that were developed from 1996 through 2014.""From 2012 through 2014, the likelihood that a Phase 3 study would advance to product registration was 64 percent, up from 60 percent during the previous three-year period."https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2016/06/13/clinical-trials-drug-development/Also someone posted on here that the majority of failures are down to safety.Not sure who but hopefully they can provide.Note we have a good safety profile here.

[hamhamham1] 29/11/2017 17:31

WJ. I guess it's a percentage punt on getting approval then. I wonder what kinda odds they have?

[w1ndjammer] 29/11/2017 17:26

ham

the funding has already been done

WJ.

[hamhamham1] 29/11/2017 17:23

Does anyone know if it's likely that there will be any share dilution for additional funding. Only a couple of million on the bank?

[spawny100] 29/11/2017 17:23

Yes quant you're right there too and I was incorrect saying the r2 value gave the correlation when it is of course the coefficient of variation that explains the % variance. My apologies. I went off on a tangent as the original poster mentioned r squared and correlation in the post. No harm done. Onwards and upwards...

[w1ndjammer] 29/11/2017 17:21

ham

900 mill would still give you a take out price of around 7 Billion

plus if it works on some of the other stuff like Arthritis skys the limit

need to get the approval first, so don`t put the farm on it, but i have done

a lot of research and i like what i see. Plus i think the market in general is looking

for a 50 bagger so timing could be everything.

WJ.

[babanki] 29/11/2017 17:15

Thanks quantinvestor. The figure of 0.4 is the correlation coefficient, r, not r squared.

[hamhamham1] 29/11/2017 17:15

Thanks L0ng

[l0ngterm] 29/11/2017 17:12

Ham ham: see hitting ups post breaking down sales volumes.40000 sufferers would be around 1 billion.the caveat in the article states conservative estimates around 940 million. Lupus market growth expected to reach 3 billion by 2025.

[topdiesel] 29/11/2017 17:04

Not that it really makes a huge difference, but: everyone's calculations for profits and values do not include the royalties they must pay for exclusive use of the drug. 15% goes to the CNRS. If successful it will be a blockbuster drug, but at best it would be 85% of the calculations provided.

[quant_investor] 29/11/2017 17:04

no spawny...r is the correlation, r-square is the correlation squared. not the same thing (unless r=1 or r=0)

however you are correct in saying if the figure of 0.4 quoted by the original poster was in fact a correlation then the r-square would be 0.16.

So pretty weak yes. Smoke & mirrors and all that.

[hamhamham1] 29/11/2017 16:59

Hi W1ndjammer. Looking at IMM. This link says potential revenue of €900m pa (conservative). These seem a lot less than I read on postings here??
hxxp://www.epo.org/learning-events/european-inventor/finalists/2017/muller.html

[barneygumble27] 29/11/2017 16:56

What are the chances of lupus coming good or not

[top tips] 29/11/2017 16:38

He is saying if Lupuzor does ok it will be the magic bullet everyone is looking for and the trial ends in 2018.

Incidentally, Sylviane Muller is the world's leading expert on Lupuzor, so I tend to have most regard to what she says.

[babanki] 29/11/2017 16:28

He was speaking in May of this year

Cette vidéo est tirée du conférence que le Professeur Houssiau a donnée pour l'association lupus érythémateux en mai 2017.

[babanki] 29/11/2017 16:20

Professor Houssiau is a Belgian specialist in lupus.

[hottingup] 29/11/2017 15:53

Good point spmc (although 500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $15 billion pa revenue) to which I would add:

Lupuzor revenues could be huge:

40,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1.25 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $2.5 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $3.75 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $18.75 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $25 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $31.25 billion pa revenue

40,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.2 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.5 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $3 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $4.5 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $7.5 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $15 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $22.5 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $30 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue

"There are approximately 5 million patients across the world that suffer from lupus...from a commercial perspective we could probably target 1.5 to 2 million of those sufferers in what I call the commercial markets - North America, Europe, Far East...looking at the economics...this is a drug that would probably sell at around $25,000 to $30,000 per year per patient..." (Tim McCarthy, IMM Chairman - Stocktube, Sep 2017)

Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including:

- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations:
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

Lupuzor could therefore be several blockbusters in one. (Analysts Edison stated they "understand that a majority of Phase IIb (Lupuzor) patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score)". The Rheumatoid Arthritis market size is estimated at $28.5bn by 2025. This and other indications could add significantly to the value of Lupuzor in negotiations.

Preparation for regulatory submission

[ctrlseng] 29/11/2017 15:53

Thanks Carnivale, I hope you're feeling better. I've been trying to find more info about this guy but couldn't find anything. Nevermind