Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[njb67] 27/12/2019 19:31

COL

Given what we know about the M&A space, everyone had a look. I have heard some companies were sent back twice to check their conclusions. IMM have been one of the most high profile targets of recent years.

Yet no one big (or medium or small) thought it worth a £25m punt.

Sometimes better to ask the difficult questions than hope for the best.

As per earlier posts, I am waiting to see the study design. What have Avion spotted that every other company has missed?

If they have found something then fair play to them.

This is though a bet against the rest of the pharma R&D industry who decided to pass.

[colsmith] 27/12/2019 15:05

NJ - indeed, always prudent to be mindful of anything one doesn't have full detail on and apart from the company and probably some leakage of info the rest of us are in the dark. Who know why the others haven't taken up we just don't know but we do know one company is prepared to spend millions and maybe they just see the possibility where others haven't.

[costax1654x] 27/12/2019 11:24

Idp looks ready for a rally

[njb67] 27/12/2019 10:42

COL

All the companies who looked at the Lupuzor trial will have had access to the raw data. May be worth asking why no other company was prepared to partner with IMM, even for a modest £25m initial commitment?

This article is a few years old but is a useful summary of how many clinical trials fail, even late stage and supposedly confirmatory studies.

hxxp://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/phase-iii-trial-failures-costly-preventable

I see that Pfizer has recently announced more phase three failures, so even the biggest companies, with the biggest research divisions and best scientists, cannot guarantee their "due diligence" translates into trial success.

hxxps://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-merck-kgaa-s-bavencio-flunks-study-hard-to-treat-gastric-cancer

This is the reality of drug development. Despite the greatest scientific minds, a lot of drugs fail to make it from the lab to patients.

[colsmith] 27/12/2019 09:59

best - a practical opinion but I still see that a company that has carried out due diligence on the P3 results and considered the sub group results as having passed I guess is a vote of confidence; in that the company is prepared to fund a further P3 and talk to the FDA about the trial structure. After all AVION will have been privy to all the results beyond the top level statistical results and in that sense know more than us. So having done one assumes a careful analysis of the results (due diligence!) they have decided success must be much more on the upside that not or to put another way surely significantly greater than 50%. These are facts - cash of millions being committed based on a perception of likely success.

Have a nice day.

[best1467] 26/12/2019 08:47

Don’t see the massive percentage run up prior to this readout as we had before the last .for a couple of reasons 1 Although the terms are good for the desperate position they were in if successful we are not talking mega numbers 2 with the fact it failed already when as some know TM was massively confident but saying that they do now know the sub sector of patients it works on it will be targeting that sector for the trial.
In my opinion it will trade around these levels or slightly lower for the next 12/18 months before a steady rise prior to readout if everything goes to schedule so money to be made but not just yet.

[daveboy1] 24/12/2019 08:43

Yay, there she is!

[ken chung] 23/12/2019 22:31

Enjoy the gradual drift back below 10p.Lemmings and mushrooms only.

[coldspring] 23/12/2019 15:52

Timber......last one out for Christmas turn off the lights please.

[colsmith] 23/12/2019 11:27

Being the end of 2019 it occurred to me that with all the opinions on the company there are only two recent facts of relevance:

- AVION, after due diligence, are to spend millions on taking Lupuzor forward jointly with IMM

- listing on EURONEXT.

Perhaps 2020 will be the year to bear fruit?

Have a Happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

---------------------------------
EXTRACT
Art Deas, Chief Executive Officer, Avion Pharmaceuticals added: "Avion is extremely pleased to sign this partnership with ImmuPharma. After in-depth due-diligence around Lupuzor(TM), its mechanism of action and learnings within the initial Phase III results, we believe that Lupuzor(TM) has a unique position within lupus that sets it apart from competition, and we are delighted to be extending our footprint within this therapeutic area. With approximately 1.5 million patients in the US suffering from lupus, there is a significant unmet need for a safe and effective drug for this debilitating disease that we believe Lupuzor(TM) can meet. We look forward to forging a strong and successful relationship with ImmuPharma going forward."

[brad44] 21/12/2019 10:42

Fair play to you, have a good Christmas

[halfbutt] 20/12/2019 16:23

Brad...cant deny that I was very vocal on the 92p time...... however things have changed and we have real tangible progress along with a plan fully ready... so I'm in again but this time currently a 12p average.... was very critical of TM but this time far more detail and real activity in the pipeline

[brad44] 20/12/2019 16:20

Hmmm I'm sure you were one of the posters slagging this company off big style on lse?

[ny boy] 20/12/2019 16:02

Finished my accumulation here for this year.

Good entry point for one of my tips for the new decade, Trackwise designs (TWD) definitely a keeper that one! Imho

[halfbutt] 20/12/2019 10:55

The fact is , this is a great entry price.even if lupuzor doesn't meet its end goal the ride up to this will generate many fold increase on it's current value.. a simple view but a very realistic consensus... It will go to 40p and when it starts to get exciting 100p ...a bit of a wait but realistic

[whatsthepoint] 20/12/2019 09:32

Gobsmacked at how this has been driven down so far. Just crazy. Shows how much control shorters have in small stocks these days. Especially ones which have spiked.

[wigwammer] 20/12/2019 00:17

HarleyThese ARE facts. "It looks like lupuzor DOES have a viable future, cash burn is NOT ?8m pa, it?s quite possible Imm DOES NOT need to dilute, lanstead are NOT selling 1/24th pm etc etc etc." If it can be demonstrated that 2023/24 is a more realistic timetable then great - but it is a shame the fact based stuff get swamped in a sea of bearish horsesh1te. ATB :)

[cumnor] 20/12/2019 00:13

No volume-no need for cash-another ex US deal likely soon which is why mgmt are happy to refute this. There are no effective alternatives and a drug in P3 with wide potential and great safety profile is worth multiples of present valuations to big pharma. Stale holders being flushed out.

[wigwammer] 19/12/2019 23:48

Sure thing.. it looks like lupuzor DOES have a viable future, cash burn is NOT £8m pa, it's quite possible Imm DOES NOT need to dilute, lanstead are NOT selling 1/24th pm etc etc etc. At some point these bears have to get something right :)

[harleydocman] 19/12/2019 23:40

Wigwammer,

I would be interested in SK opinion on when HE expects a read out on this new P3

in 2021/2022 as you suggest or
in 2023/2024 as i have suggested :-)