Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 11/9/2018 20:32

UKDannyboy

What a strange post. It is just a fact that IMM is a virtual company. If you had done your research properly, you would have known that.

[alphorn] 11/9/2018 19:59

The Annual Report is a starting point - group showing 7 R&D staff, including management.

[ukdannyboy] 11/9/2018 19:21

Thanks for providing something to validate your statement.

[nobbygnome] 11/9/2018 19:11

I am not going to take part in this pointless debate. I was just pointing out the error in your post which shows you don't really understand the company.

[ukdannyboy] 11/9/2018 19:05

Nobby show me some proof they have no assets other than their cash and I’ll take what you say with a hint of seriousness, oand if you can’t do it don’t bother posting back.

[ukdannyboy] 11/9/2018 19:03

Numerous people have explained the same things and explained their own reasons for investing/valuation which all make sense to anyone with half a brain cell, yet you continually talk absolute nonsense and give no chance credible explanation of anything you say. I can’t keep replying to you because Iran just a waste of time, with a moron.

[nobbygnome] 11/9/2018 18:48

>> UKdannyboy

Your comments show you don't understand the business model. They have no lab equipment because they outsource all the experimental work. In fact they outsource just about everything....but still pay themselves fat salaries.

[obiterdicta] 11/9/2018 18:44

OT

You haven't answered the points made. If you have any points to make I will consider them. You make generic points about valuation which are understood. See my response to UKDB below.

UKDannyboy

Thanks for the re-cap. I am not trying to convince anyone. If you look back at the thread it was Merlion who first raised cash assets to support his valuation. I did not raise it first but responded to Merlion's point.

My point is in order to crystalise share price appreciation you need some inflection points, for example trial results. I can see no inflection points on the horizon for IMM but accept your point that Lupuzor may realise some value on conclusion of the MAP. The MAP does not conclude for another 2 years. My view is that Lupuzor realizing any value is a remote possibility and is some way off.

So what inflection points do you see coming up for IMM to crsytalise share price appreciation?

Do you accept my point that momentum is against IMM and management have lost credibility?

OD

[ukdannyboy] 11/9/2018 18:20

Lupuzora going into MAP - Possibility of good results

Nutant cancer collaboration (including a £1,000,000 licence fee to Immu)


Divestment of Ureka (again, more income)

£12,000,000 in cash

All previous research/development still being meaningful

Collaborations and connections

Lap equipment

Yet you’re wanting to value this company at £12,000,000 based on ‘that’s all the money thy have’. Read the RNS, if you don’t like the sound of it don’t buy them but don’t try and convince me and others this is worth only what it was cash because even FTSE100 companies don’t work like that.

[onceatraders] 11/9/2018 17:44

obiterdicta

Some people want to listen and learn for betterment, while some think they know it all already. You are the latter unfortunately.

All the best on your future endeavors.

OT

[obiterdicta] 11/9/2018 17:37

OT

I have looked into it. The cash invested in Lupuzor is gone. I don't see any realistic chance of the Lupuzor investment creating any value.

The rest of the pipeline is very early stage which requires £s to bring to trial and then more £s to bring to market.

So I am all ears. Point out the flaws in that reasoning.

Thanks

OD

[onceatraders] 11/9/2018 17:31

obiterdicta

Your investment criteria, valuation method and prognosis, is flawed. Furthermore it is not one that would be justified for any pre revenue bio-tech.

Cash flows prior to approval of a drug will be significantly negative. That means "standard" valuation multiples like EV/EBITDA or P/E are less relevant. There are some alternative multiples like EV/invested R&D, which is essentially a cost-based valuation.

Development phase. In the initial years, there are only outflows, due to the R&D expenses on the drug. These costs will differ for each drug depending on factors such as the number of iterations during the discovery and pre-clinical phases, the experimental design(s) required during pre-clinical and clinical trials, and more.

Revenue/market phase. When the drug has reached the market, key drivers we need to estimate in order to derive revenue (and profit) projections include the following: number of potential customers/patients, pricing, margins, and the ramping up and down of revenues.

Other potential influencing factors. Potential adjustments to the typical revenue/cash flow curve include partnerships (such as a strategic partner who helps out with R&D and/or marketing expenses in exchange for revenue share) as well as accelerated regulatory review which both the FDA and the EMA offer for qualifying drug candidates (effectively compressing the cash flow curve).

You are using a simplified method to get a valuation on a pre revenue bio-tech, which is wrong.

I would urge you to look into it a little more.

OT

[obiterdicta] 11/9/2018 17:26

NG - thanks for that.

T_M was getting more and more worked up so may be he is more cross with himself for being unable to articulate a coherent point in writing and is trying to take it out on me. From my line of work I know that if someone is getting worked up under mild questioning then they are not confident of their position. The more worked up the more the lack of confidence comes through.

His writing does give an interesting insight into cognitive processes and the biases at work there.

Having said that T_M's short term trade may come off though, it won't be down to any thought through rationale it will be down to luck.

OD

[nobbygnome] 11/9/2018 17:18

>>OD

I have T_M on filter but I can tell from your answers that you have had a frustrating afternoon. It is pointless conversing with him because he is an unpleasant troll with nothing sensible to offer.

The filter button means silence is bliss....

[the_merlion] 11/9/2018 16:58

Your right UKDannyboy, A quote sprints to mind:


Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience


Anyway, enough of obi and his girly hissy fits on here.

Good finish in the end today, off the lows and moving towards the 14's again. Just a matter of time here for a reversal. All the best and lets see what tomorrow brings.

[ukdannyboy] 11/9/2018 16:52

Merlon just ignore this clown, they have no clue how to value an AIM share beyond how much cash they have in the bank and are just seeking to fill this board full of nonsense so the meaningful comments get buried.

Here is a broker giving a 22p ‘enterprise’ valuation which was just after phase 3 failed and since then I’ve seen nothing of substance to suggest it should be valued at any less than this, hence me saying ‘it’s oversold’.

[obiterdicta] 11/9/2018 16:38

It's a free country Merlion so I will do what I want, including post on this board.

Your investment strategy appears to be the share price has gone down by alot, it's due a bounce. Fine, now we know that that is the limit of your reasoning and what your time horizon is. Great. Good for you.

Don't try to rationalise your short term trading up by talking about market cap, operating expenses, admin costs and cash as that is irrelevant to your trading strategy.

I use the term strategy lightly, as the term strategy implies thought through reasoning over a longer time frame.

OD

[the_merlion] 11/9/2018 16:16

obi, I am not here to tell you were to invest, explain why or not or do anything to help you. If you cannot take the time to do it yourself, thats fine, no skin off my nose what you do.

I have invested or punted if you like, in IMM, as I see a 30-50% uplift in days. You do not see it that way, and are focused on 2020. Well you do that fella if its your investing strategy. But do not come over here for explanations, it is my money and I direct it to where ever I see fit.

Now run along, your becoming more of a pain then Nobby, and that takes some doing on here.

[obiterdicta] 11/9/2018 16:06

The Merlion you are just showing yourself up again. You know nothing about me, including what my profession is. Your statements reveal much about your ability (or otherwise) to reason and debate using evidence. I will leave it there and hope IMM eventually comes good, although neither you nor I have been able to identify any outer of value.

OD

[the_merlion] 11/9/2018 15:59

LOL law of defamation......add this to your obi statement when you see your brief.........obi you are a ugly mug giro punter

And: Low life

And: simpleton

And: Thick as two planks

That should keep your brief busy for now.

LMFAO