Ig Share Discussion Threads

[prokartace] 21/3/2019 07:52

Every sale yesterday should be investigated. Its a disgrace.

[pj0077] 21/3/2019 07:25

Q3 revenue down 29% on Q3 last yearMischievously, IG report revenue down 12% on the previous QuarterDeliberately misleading

[discodave4] 20/3/2019 20:18

If revenue is down about 6%-7% then I still reckon year end profit before tax will be about £239m, eps 52p. I still reckon a PE rating of 10-12 is sector norm now.Also be interesting to see if UK/EU retail/professional split is still about 30%/70%.For the record not a holder, on my watch list.

[horndean eagle] 20/3/2019 18:43

Trading statement tomorrow.

[prokartace] 20/3/2019 15:55

As usual someone knows something the unfortunate PI(me) doesn't know about yet!

[lodgeview] 20/3/2019 15:51

Totally crazy drop. Opportunity if funds permit IMO

[woodhawk] 20/3/2019 15:24

I think you'll find a lot of the market has taken a tumble this afternoon - thanks to our idiotic Prime Minister.

[11_percent] 20/3/2019 13:06

Well....it aint looking good.

[fizzypop] 20/3/2019 10:34

TU tomorrow.

[gbh2] 07/3/2019 14:52

No spare cash, unfortunately :(

That said, we should be due an update this month woodhawk so I don't think I'll be tempted to sink anything else into IGG until we here how it's going on.

[woodhawk] 07/3/2019 13:44

Best time to buy... as you know, gbh2 ;-)

[gbh2] 07/3/2019 09:33

Down on up days and down on down days, little to no sign of buying interest!

[woodhawk] 01/3/2019 16:05

I think you've just seen as near as it gets! Onwards and upwards..

[11_percent] 01/3/2019 15:25

Is this heading for a double bottom.

[figis] 26/2/2019 18:07

Trading update March 21 as per their website

[woodhawk] 26/2/2019 10:10

Dunno, just had interims a month ago.

[bor491] 26/2/2019 09:57

when is the next trading update?

[american idiot] 25/2/2019 11:50

Without a doubt IG are the best in the business at what they do. The service I receive from my account manager is absolutely excellent. I am a premium client.

I've been with IG for 15 years with a CFD account.(as well as a spreadbet & ISA account)

In the height of my speculating I was easily turning over £10m volume per month.

Now, I am lucky if I can buy / sell more than 1 position per day.

I have an Aussie IG account (as well as my UK account) and plenty of cash on account / margin cover so my problems are nothing to do with ESMA.

The problems for me are lack of volumes. Increments of 0.02p / 0.05p means volume is ok but its all around the same kind of price meaning making a worthwhile profit is extremely difficult. There also seems to be a lot LESS actual humans trading nowadays with far more algo bots spread all over Level 2 screens than there was a decade ago.

As a result of lack of opportunities, my volumes fall, IG increase their commission rate for me which just compounds the problem which results in my trading grinding to a virtual halt and me looking to do something completely different with my savings.

I think the likes of IG under-estimate the effects of ESMA going forward.

If my current volume declines are anything like other IG retail investors then IG will warn on revenue / profits just like CMC and PLUS have recently.

Instead of IG going down the mature stockbroking road they should think again of offering sports betting to clients. This industry has grown rapidly over the past decade and would fit in very well with their spreadbet business.

[discodave4] 24/2/2019 23:43

Very much doubt it.

[podgyted] 24/2/2019 19:13

Following the CMCX disclosure, there is a possibility that IGG will follow suit on Monday - hope not, but I just begin to wonder if they both gave too much away to the professionals especially as volatility seems to be ebbing away rapidly. Vix down to September levels.

[discodave4] 24/2/2019 12:57

Hi sporazeneThanks, have just checked their H1 presentation and I mistakenly used the Q2 UK/EU retail and professional split (31% and 69%) rather than the H1 which was 41% (retail) and 59% (professional). This does show that retail decline for Q2 was more indicative of what their yearly forecast split will be of 30%/70%.According to their H1 presentation (on their website) where they provide the income split, the UK/EU "retail" income H1 was nearly £61m, again annualising gives £122m. Once again going on their forecast impact due to ESMA for FY19 of 34% then year end rev compared to last year could be 569 - (0.34 x 122) = c £528m (a 7% reduction rather than my original 6% reduction). As H1 total rev on like for like basis was down 6% (sorry used 8% previously for some reason) then will use mid point of 6.5%, this gives FY19 rev of £532m, pbt £239m, pat £194m, eps still c 52p. So will stick to my previous post share price for fair value of 520p to 624p.Agree that consensus is for a 22% reduction in eps to 48.25 with FY19 rev of £519.5m, which is a 9% reduction compared to FY18. H1 implies it could be only a 6% reduction, so you takes your money and makes your choice - will they beat or not!.DD

[sporazene2] 24/2/2019 11:38

dave EPS at the interim stage was down quite a bit more than that; and consensus is for a 22% reduction in EPS at the FY stage, dividend only being cover 1.2. there looks to be more downside on the cards short term by the looks of the chart but I believe this could be a really nice entry point as this looks a nice long term play, high margin, market leader etc.

[discodave4] 23/2/2019 12:49

Invested here early 2017 after the dip and been looking to get back in at some point, so just been catching up on the H1 numbers and trying to work out FY19 year end forecasts.For H1 69% of UK/EU revenue was "professional" clients so only 31% of this income ("retail") would have been impacted by ESMA. Unfortunately IGG do not give the income splits for the group but last year the UK/EU "professional and retail" income was 63% of group revenue (so having nothing else to go on will use this split).So UK/EU "professional and retail" income for H1 is circa £251m x 0.63 = £158m, thus UK/EU "retail" revenue is 0.31 x £158m = £49m (this will be impacted by ESMA). Simply annualising based on H1 (assuming not too much seasonality with IG income) then "retail" income FY19 is circa £98m. From last years capital markets day IG forecast that ESMA impact would be a 34% (taking their mid range forecast) decline in UK/EU "retail" income for FY19 compared to FY18 revenue, so this would be about £33m (98 x 0.34).FY19 total group income forecast is £569m (FY18 total revenue) minus £33m is £536m (a Net 6% reduction compared to FY18). Given that H1 total revenue was a stated 8% lower than H1 last year then I'm inclined to use a mid point reduction of 7%. So FY19 total revenue c £529m. With a pre tax margin of 45% that gives £238m pbt, after tax £193m, eps 52p. PE I reckon of 10 to 12 is more likely so a share price of 520p to 624p. Still think I will keep these on my watch list for a while longer (but now towards the bottom of the list!).......but who knows!.Good luck.DD

[orangepeel] 23/2/2019 02:05

No it was a simple share Qinetiq. I feel I'll be shorting IG now at every opportunity, what business can afford to turn away business. Clearly I'm not big enough to be part of their big city boy gang anymore. There are a few choice descriptions of them going through my mind right now. I'm just keen to talk to others who may have experienced the same.