Ide Share Discussion Threads

[eezymunny] 07/10/2021 10:26

How much of the EBITDA being bandied about here comes from the biggest client?

[dave4545] 07/10/2021 08:49

Really is a shortage of stock atm.

Was the same yesterday until a couple of people helped out the mm's

But right now there is just 150k available on the offer at 1.08p

It would not take much to move them, even in this dire market

[dave4545] 05/10/2021 09:37

Growth stocks all trade at big premiums.

I mean that IHC I mentioned is up to 90 mil cap, might make 50-100% more than IDE and of course does not have the debt but a 85 million difference in market caps.

This is totally off the radar

Online spread is nice btw 1.06-1.089p...if they showed that on the monitor instead of 1-1.15p I guess there would be more action

[agedman] 05/10/2021 09:29

The loan notes were set up when the company was in a pretty poor state. That is no longer the case and as such I’m sure the debt will be repackaged in such a way that it will be less onerous on the books. But as you rightly said and as I’ve been trying to make the point; even with the full debt owed the company is woefully valued. By some point next year the share price could well be 10p+. This manage business is as Parker said in a win- win situation.

[p1nkfish] 05/10/2021 07:48

Market memories of old baggage will hold it back for a while.

[dave4545] 05/10/2021 07:20

When you read some other companies results you get to see even with the debt what a bargain IDE is.

Take IHC this morning EBITDA of £3.6 mil, some cash and a market cap of £80 million

IDE probably for whole year £4-5 million EBITDA market cap £4 million and £20 mil of debt.

Some value here

[deekers] 04/10/2021 03:26

Let us hope they don't make another acquisition, I think the plan will be for IDE to start re-paying debt sooner, rather than waiting until the loans end date, hopefully they will re-negotiate the 12% rate and the 5% fee as well not sure how possible that is.

[agedman] 03/10/2021 20:34

Perhaps there is a failing Lifecycle/ Manage business that could slot in for a similar sum as the Connect business was sold off for? The remaining IDE business is an extremely lean machine - well that's what I took from the update.

[p1nkfish] 03/10/2021 07:51

Sale > 2.5p/share by some very decent margin.
Ignoring talk of acquisitions as possible red-herring.

[p1nkfish] 03/10/2021 07:49

Well a decent acquisition using company shares will be a problem.
Cash none too easy too in this situation.
Possible reverse take-over, even more complicated.
I'm expecting a trade sale of Manage once its profit profile is shown to be resilient.

[agedman] 02/10/2021 14:36

All a guessing game at the moment, but they clearly want it dealt with. Perhaps they are looking to make an acquisition, tidy the whole thing up and sell the enlarged business off within a much shorter timeframe?

[dave4545] 02/10/2021 08:51

Knigel

Agree, if the main business is making £2-4 million and generating a load of cash then they could pay that debt off in 5 years.

No dilution and the shares could 10 bag.

Do a D4E and suddenly all the value vanishes, it could still be a 2-3 bagger, but easy
to go from £5 mil cap to £25-50 mil when making say £4 mill profits than going from £25 mil cap to £50 mil valuation when making £4 mil profits.

[knigel] 02/10/2021 08:32

I don’t see why they “need” to swap all the debt for equity (if this is the route being considered). They just need to get debt down to a manageable level - say five to eight million??

[p1nkfish] 02/10/2021 06:14

Wasn't it 2.5p ??
Can't remember.

[agedman] 02/10/2021 05:48

They were also converted at a time when the share price was around 1.6p. Maybe this a route out for the debt? The swap would have to be at a huge premium to current levels as per my valuation.

[p1nkfish] 02/10/2021 04:03

Kestrel didn't swap their debt for equity without there being a good reason, or am I wrong and if so why?

[agedman] 02/10/2021 00:22

With a bit of wind in it's sails we could be looking at 6m Ebitda for the current year. But working on just 5m would give an EV/EBITDA of 5.8. Take it up to a sector multiple of 10 and this would give a share price @ just over 5p. So as I keep banging on about it IDE is far too cheap. The debt will be addressed and even if that equates to the full 24m being settled (I doubt it somehow)this is the figure I used for the EV calc.

[dave4545] 01/10/2021 08:21

Here we go, all the traders mortified about having to hold a stock selling for any price so they can get cash to trade something else

[dave4545] 30/9/2021 19:15

If that 1.975 million trade at 1.1p is a director then I feel this will go a bit.

I'm guessing it's a buy, it could be a worked sale from this morning but I feel it looks too high a price for a sale.

Anyway if it was a director there would be a rns tomorrow.

[agedman] 30/9/2021 18:28

If FCAP produced some guidance, I think that may give the share price the necessary boost. Very surprised not to see one today.

[deekers] 30/9/2021 16:58

I don't expect it to rise until the debt issue is resolved, not exactly sure what they can do to raise the millions to cover debt as it is many times capitalization.

[dave4545] 30/9/2021 16:24

1.05-1.2p

But it's 1.06p offer and NT to sell

[deekers] 30/9/2021 15:03

Did they even approach competitors and offer it to them at a reasonable price,
the proceeds could have paid down the company debt, that IDE never had a hope of servicing.

[p1nkfish] 30/9/2021 13:22

If they held on longer more losses would mount and only useful against tax to the acquirer. Comes a time to cut loose.