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Posted at 15/1/2015 12:15 by m.t.glass - and sharply down another 6.8% this morning. Tuesday's trading update statement evidently not positive enough to lift investor confidence. |
Posted at 28/12/2012 08:41 by spob Spain's house prices to fall another 30pc as glut keeps growingSpain's property slump will deepen for much of the next decade, and tracts of buildings along the Mediterannean coast will have to be demolished, the country's top consultants have warned. Image 1 of 3 The Spanish government says the housing market has already 'touched bottom' after falling 30pc since 2008 Photo: AFP Image 1 of 3Photo: RR de Acuna & Asociados Image 1 of 3Photo: RR de Acuna & Asociados By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 5:50PM GMT 27 Dec 2012 248 Comments RR de Acuña & Asociados expects home prices in Madrid, Barcelona and other major cities to fall a further 30pc in a relentless slide until 2018, but it may be even worse in sunbelt regions where 400,000 Britons either live or own homes. Fresh losses could reach 50pc and drag on for 10 to 15 years in those places where construction ran wild during the bubble, bringing the total decline from peak to trough towards 75pc. "The market is broken," said Fernando Rodríguez de Acuña, the group's vice-president. "We calculate that there are almost 2m properties waiting to be sold. We have made no progress at all over the past five years in clearing the stock," he said. "There are 800,000 used homes on the market. Developers are sitting on a further 700,00 completed units. Another 300,000 have been foreclosed and 150,000 are in foreclosure proceedings, and there are another 250,000 still under construction. It's crazy." The overhang is vast for a country with 48m inhabitants and annual demand near 200,000. It is coupled with an outflow of workers and the start of an aging population crisis. Related Articles Schaeuble: Worst of euro crisis 'behind us' 27 Dec 2012 Top four Greek banks need 27.5bn by May 27 Dec 2012 Over-taxed France should review deficit target 26 Dec 2012 America lambasts China for trade breaches 26 Dec 2012 A-Z of 2012 in business 27 Dec 2012 Things are looking up even without Carney 27 Dec 2012 The government says the housing market has already "touched bottom" after falling 30pc since 2008, even though premier Mariano Rajoy admits that there will no economic recovery until 2014. The International Monetary Fund forecasts contraction of 1.3pc next year, while Citigroup and Nomura both expect the depression to continue into 2014. The unemployment rate is 26.2pc and rising. As a member of the eurozone, Spain no longer has the monetary levers to engineer a soft landing for "nominal" house prices. This makes it much harder to break the vicious cycle of debt-deflation. The property sector and the banks are each dragging the other down. The share price of nationalised Bankia fell 14pc on Thursday after the authorities said the lender is worthless, with "negative value " of -4.2bn (-£3.5bn). Bankia will need a further 13.5bn of taxpayer funds, taking the total to 18bn. Some 350,000 small investors - many talked into buying Bankia's preferred shares as a form of saving - have lost their money. Banco de Valencia fell to 0.09 after state rescue fund (FROB) said it would seize 99.9pc of the company before selling it on to CaixaBank, a total wipe-out for shareholders. El Confidencial reported that bank rescue costs will push the budget deficit to 9pc of GDP for 2012, far above the orginal EU target of 4.5pc, later modified to 6.3pc. There has been scant improvement since 2009, when the deficit peaked at 11.2pc. The IMF says the deficit is still stuck at 7pc even if bank costs are stripped out. It warns against austerity overkill, arguing that too much fiscal tightening can be self-defeating in a regional slump without offsetting monetary stimulus. New research by the Fund suggests that Spain's "fiscal multiplier" may be three times higher than originally assumed. Mr Rodríguez de Acuña said Spain's property crisis varies enormously by region, with the worst damage on the Club Med belt. Even so, recent firesales in the inland city of Toledo have shocked analysts. Santander recently slashed prices by 60pc to clear a backlog of properties. When Banco Sabadel followed shortly after, it had to offer haircuts of 70pc. Another large bank suspended its Toledo sales two weeks ago after prices went into meltdown. "We think prices will recover in the traditional coastal areas like the Canaries or Malaga within five to eight years, but for now banks are offering huge discounts and nobody is calling. Marbella has already fallen by 50pc and prices are going down and down," Mr Rodríguez de Acuña said. "In places like Castellon [near Valencia] where over-development was mad, banks are not financing anything and there is a high probability that these properties will never be sold. They will have to be knocked down," he said. Spain's bank rescue from the EU bail-out fund (ESM) is bringing the crisis to a head quickly, and brutally. Brussels insists that Madrid crystallise the losses in the portfolios of the rescued banks, ending the "extend and pretend" policy that has concealed the full gravity of the crisis until now. The big trio of healthy banks - Santander, BBVA, and Caixa - have all rushed to sell their backlog before the state's "bad bank" unloads its holdings. They have already written down 95pc of the value of their land portfolio. "There is little more to lose," said Mr Rodrigues de Acuña. |
Posted at 22/3/2012 16:13 by spob March 22, 2012 10:26 amFT Spain's borrowing costs back over 5.5%By Richard Milne, Capital Markets Editor Spain's benchmark government bond yields rose above 5.5 per cent for the first time in two months on Thursday as investors fretted about Madrid's deficit and weak growth prospects for both the country and the eurozone. Italy's 10-year yields also moved above 5 per cent as markets focused on the possibility of deep recessions in the two countries viewed as central to whether the eurozone debt crisis erupts again. More On this story Data show ECB loan spur for bond rally ECB calls for tougher rules on budgets In depth Eurozone in crisis ECB liquidity plan aids rush for EU bonds Greece launches debt swap offer IN Capital Markets Comeback of the 'dash for trash' China property fears put bond revival at risk Moody's downgrades Detroit's debt Corporate bonds raise bubble fears Spain's 10-year yields were up 14 basis points to 5.53 per cent on Thursday morning while Italy's rose 11bp to 5.08 per cent. Investors have worried that, despite some claims from politicians that the eurozone crisis is over largely thanks to action from the European Central Bank, that growth in Italy and Spain could prove to be the Achilles heel to that argument. Eurozone purchasing managers' indices, released on Thursday for March, suggest weakening growth prospects across the continent with declines in both manufacturing and services. Analysts at Newedge Strategy said: "Spain and Italy show depressed levels of activity, pointing to a sharp contraction in the medium term." Investors have started to focus on Spain again this year rather than Italy after its budget deficit overshot targets last year and the government proposed to cut it less than agreed with European authorities for 2012. After Portugal's bailout a year ago, markets expected Spain to be next in line. But partly due to Italy's high debt burden and the bungling performance of Silvio Berlusconi, its former prime minister, investors turned their sights on Rome first. Now investors are back to worrying about Madrid, with concerns ranging from its extremely high youth unemployment rate to its troubled banking sector and high budget deficit. "Spain is a problem still. Maybe it doesn't flare up for a while but it is hard to see it just muddling through forever: the numbers, particularly on unemployment, are just too bad," said a fund manager at one large bond investor. Haven bond assets were in demand on Thursday with German 10-year Bund yields falling 6bp to 1.92 per cent and 10-year UK Gilts down 5bp to 2.32 per cent. |
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